James "SplitSuit" Sweeney

What are some of the biggest mistakes players make when it comes to calculating the mathematics behind any poker decision? James (@SplitSuit) Sweeney: Most players don’t think in ranges, and the ones that do, tend to not think about them correctly. For instance, I recently reviewed a hand where I opened UTG with A-Q, faced a squeeze from the player on the button, and I ended up four-bet shoving. A few comments I received about that video looked something like, “I would never get A-Q all-in preflop for 100 big blinds. That’s terrible.” Players typically land on this sort of decision because they look at A-Q and know it’s a huge dog against a normal stack-off range, and they conclude that four-betting with A-Q would be utter suicide. However, if you think more deeply about villain’s range, what becomes apparent is the importance of the gap between villain’s squeezing range and the range villain would call the shove. That gap is part of the EV equation that represents how often you will pick up the preflop pot uncontested. As that gap gets larger and larger, the EV of a shove can get quite high, even when villain’s calling range absolutely dominates our A-Q. The same sorts of range mistakes happen post-flop, too. I also reviewed a hand where I bet and called an all-in with J-9 on K-Q-10-Q-3. In smaller stakes, it’s rare that players are bluff raising rivers often enough, and debatable if they would even shove with Q-X hands given the action. I ran the math in the video with villain only shoving a strong range and J-9 was (obviously) a clear fold. However, I went a step further and looked at the EV of calling the all-in if villain had a bluff combo, then a few bluff combos, and then many bluff combos. It didn’t take very many bluff combos for J-9’s equity to rise enough to make calling profitable given the pot odds. If you only play poker using rote qualifying statements like “never stack off with A-Q preflop” and “never call a river raise without the nuts,” your strategy will 100% stagnate. And besides, a little exploration and math practice can disprove those rote strategic ideas quickly. Head Game Archives: @CardPlayerMedia