Full-time prediction market trader. Dad.

Internet
Joined December 2009
While I can criticize the tactics of my 2 year old screaming "I want mommy to wake up", he nevertheless less achieved his goals through his strategy, manifesting his goals through persistence, like our most intelligent creatures.
2
152
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
Whether or not anyone builds it... everyone dies. The future is uncertain. Your impact doesn't have to be.
5
12
9
90
32,332
Me, whenever I lose a proposition bet I place with a fellow Jew.
I am so sick of the psyops, man. This entire country is run by the Vegas/Israel cartel.
1
227
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
Replying to @Bloomberg
@Bloomberg churned through three completely different guys all playing the @TheStalwart character and thought we wouldn't notice
19
19
1
636
35,364
The Dems are flooding prediction markets with bad bets to shift perceptions of reality. It only would cost $200,000 to change Talarico’s odds from 50 to 67% That’s a fraction of the 114 million spent on Talaricos campaign and more effective than road signs. People don’t believe polls but prediction markets create more certainty, because who would throw away money right? The best we can do is make their marketing stunt as expensive as possible by placing more bets on Paxton and collecting. Once election results hit the odds will be revealed to have been way off base and the Dems will use it as a call to regulate prediction markets.
BREAKING: James Talarico surges to new all-time high in odds to win the Texas Senate race. 67% chance Talarico flips Texas blue. 🔗 polymarket.com/r/TexasSenate
559
399
126
3,406
364,195
Nuño's Kegan Level 2 guide to escaping the permanent underclass during the singularity
3
2
1
23
1,480
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
there have not been fundamental advancements in alignment since RLHF. most of the stuff remains at the level of folk theory rather than scientific or engineering disciplines. the prediction that capabilities would race far ahead of interp and alignment has come true imo
140
195
68
2,947
213,002
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
5000% bond alert
4
23
1
1,783
22,151
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
okay but would you give $5000
I would kill every tiger in the world to save one human, because humans are more important. This is a very simple concept, folks.
2
16
2
665
16,289
Reading.com has a solid child reading app from what I can tell for those who are inclined
1
2
270
Are election betters pissed there's no Kalshi or Polymarket US for just dem margin of loss/victory for Kansas/Nebraska. I want nebraska but their rules absolutely mean their market is not this.
5
6
1,307
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
OpenAI leadership is saying they strongly agree with our letter. Let’s see how that pans out. @METR_evals showed the world how OpenAI models secretly plotted this summer's Hugging Face hack. On Sept 12, Sam Altman promised outside evaluators like them employee-level access. I urge @AGBonta, @KathyJenningsDE, and the public, to hold them to that commitment.
5
26
2
876
113,611
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
Replying to @singhabhi
We are all EA adjacent. That’s what EA stands for.
5
46
1,152
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
4
61
3,548
Cheers to whoevers algo broke today, you are a real one and will make it back.
1
1
10
1,069
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
We'll be spending a lot more time trying to understand the outputs of language models. A few thoughts, tips & tricks: Writing. Something I've had success with: Ask your LLM to explain something in ASD-STE100, it's a controlled language specification originally developed for aerospace maintenance documentation. LLMs well-versed in this language and it comes with heavy constraints on clean writing style that I often find a lot more readable. Sometimes I've tried to soften it a bit e.g. ask for "80% of the way to ASD-STE100" because the spec is quite stringent. But even better: Diagrams / images. Instead of writing, ask your LLM to create a diagram. These can be a lot easier to process, parse, and understand. But even better: Web pages. Ask for output "in HTML" to get a beautiful, interactive webpage. LLMs are getting really good at frontend and can create beautiful experiences, animations, etc. But even better: Explainer videos. The output format I am most bullish on is fully custom / bespoke explainer videos generated on any arbitrary topic. Experiment with things like "Create a 3b1b style video explainer on X. Use my ElevenLabs API key for audio narration". (you'd need an API key for the latter or you can ask your LLM to find you decent free alternatives that use your local compute). This is actually starting to work! In summary: - As LLMs get better, they will do more and more of the legwork autonomously, and a lot more of our work will rise up the abstractions into oversight and understanding. - Luckily, LLMs can help here too because as intelligence and code are increasingly abundant, you can ask for large, custom, discardable software artifacts (e.g. web apps, video explainers) that would have never made sense to create before. Push the boundaries here and you'll be surprised.
1,674
6,646
1,545
56,041
7,993,690
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
Can confirm reports that the CFTC is probing Trump critic and ex-Rep. Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own Biden-era pardon. Kinzinger told me "it was a dumb bet" but said he never had any inside info AND he believed Kalshi's rules allowed the trades cnn.com/2026/09/30/politics/…
4
7
2,485
Very normal ad of Donald Trump on Ohio St/Illinois paid for my tax dollars telling me they'll throw the globalists and warmongers out of government. Totally regular American things.
2
1
10
1,089
Adam Sherman 🔸 retweeted
This is like the Ents finally leaving their forest for war.
I think you've done enough calling us paranoid and preposterous. The next step is for you to defend your position in public against someone who will push back against it. I'm happy to meet you for a debate anywhere, anytime. You're a world-famous veteran of dozens of debates against the world's top intellectuals, and I've never argued in public before, so adjusting for the relative correctness of our positions, if you're a betting man I'm happy to put my $5000 against your $1000 (ie 5:1 odds in your favor) that I'll win by some standard of audience opinion change. Let me know if you're interested and we can hash out details.
8
26
1
832
25,103