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Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions (+520 FD)
This is a volume play in a matchup that gives a ton of catches. Washington allows the MOST receptions to WRs in the NFL so far this season, with about 15 a game and the way they do it matters:
- 88% catch rate allowed behind the line of scrimmage
- 75% catch rate allowed on short throws
- Only about 4 yards per target on those short throws
They let you catch it, then tackle you which is a bad matchup for a yards prop, but a great one for a reception prop. Now we can take a deeper look at where Allen gets his work:
- 75% of his targets come short or behind the line
- Half his targets come on 2nd down, which is where Washington allows an 81% catch rate to receivers
- He's caught 6 passes in 2 of his 3 games
His current role is locked in. With Alec Pierce out again, Allen played 73% of the snaps last week and saw 9 targets and catching 6, so there's nobody to take those snaps back yet.
The game script helps too because Washington has one of the best run defenses in football and have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to running backs and the fewest 10+ yard runs in the league. So, if the Colts can't run, Jones has to move the ball through the short passing game, and that's where Allen should thrive.
The biggest possible risk that I can see is that Allen is third in line for targets behind Downs and Warren, and he needs around 9 looks to get to 7 catches. His Week 2 (1 catch on a reduced snap count) is the downside if his role shrinks, but the Commanders have given up catches to everyone and I think Allen gets his share.
Prop: Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions
