Steady Crypto

Coinbase just gave agents their own wallets. The Airdrop 🪂grind that people still sell you as positioning advice is going away. On February 11 @coinbase launched Agentic Wallets. This gives any agent the ability to hold money and act on its own - spend, earn yield and trade on @base using stablecoins. A lot of people are still manually posting, transacting and staying active every day to build reputation and position for opportunities. With tools like this you authenticate once, set your voice and your rules, and the agent keeps doing the work around the clock. Nothing personal, just incentives. More here: coinbase.com/developer-platf… or how to get started: coinbase.com/developer-platf…

Just noticing... Be active. Be visible. Be everywhere. Turns out, so can a script. Yet CT keeps selling “positioning” like it’s 2024. Jan 2 - Kaito: new leaderboard minimums factoring reputation and/or onchain holdings. Jan 6 - Kaito: changes live; “utilizing onchain for verification… against a background of increasing AI.” Jan 9 - ~7.75M “crypto” posts in a day (+~1,224%), per CryptoQuant Radar. Jan 15 - X cuts off reward-for-posting apps; “yap-to-earn” reprices as a strategy. Early Feb - OpenClaw + ACP: agents start transacting on-chain (discover/hire/pay other agents; x402 micropayments). Feb 8 AI.com launches: “agent in under a minute.” Five weeks. 🫡

2025 is wrapping up. Here's what I actually think happens in 2026 Meta-thesis: The stuff that works stops feeling like crypto. The stuff that still feels like crypto mostly doesn't work. 🔸 Airdrops There might be one airdrop that feels “ $HYPE-sized”: @Polymarket . They’ve got a real path back to the U.S. (QCEX + CFTC no-action), and management has said a token + airdrop are coming. Beyond that? Airdrops stay broken. 84.7% of 2025 tokens are underwater. Nobody's figured out how to reward post-TGE usage for products with actual PMF, because there aren't many. 🔸 User Quality Hard pill: pre-TGE activity means nothing for conversion to paying customers. 2026 brings a shift to targeting users in specific markets and regions. If you're not in the right geo or demo, you're not getting paid. Nothing you can do about it. 🔸 InfoFi Unless project quality goes up AND the purpose shifts from yappers shilling to yappers toward actual onboarding, it's a zero-sum extraction game. @zachxbt called it: "main culprits of AI-generated slop." Social heat doesn't correlate with long-term value. The data confirms it. 🔸 Prediction Markets 2026 is when this goes from "crypto thing" to "normal thing." Polymarket + Kalshi did $13B/month combined volume. Robinhood's prediction markets are their fastest-growing line. CNBC and Yahoo Finance are embedding odds. Your normie friends will be betting on the World Cup. 🔸 AI Agents Technically possible. Won't move much in 2026. Too many unknowns around autonomy, custody, and liability. The x402 stuff is interesting but we're still in "demo on stage" territory, not "agents paying each other at scale" territory. 🔸 Stablecoins 2026: stablecoins stop being a crypto story and become a payments story. USDC at $77B. @stripe 's Open Issuance and Coinbase Custom Stablecoins lets any business launch a stablecoin - making “launch a dollar” basically an API call. 20% of payment volume at top AI companies already shifted to stables. The GENIUS Act passed. This is infrastructure now. 🔸 Invisible Crypto 2026 is when crypto wins by disappearing. The best adoption is when no one knows they're using blockchain. @circle IPO'd. Stripe acquired Bridge. Coinbase is a bank. Klarna is launching a USD stablecoin for payments/cross-border - on @tempo. This is what adoption looks like: normies don’t learn wallets; apps just get better rails. Your Uber driver doesn't need to know there's a settlement layer underneath. 🔸 Big Tech Wallet At least one of Google, Apple, or Meta launches or acquires a crypto wallet in 2026. Apple Pay with stablecoin rails is the "invisible crypto" endgame. 🔸 ETFs SOL and XRP ETFs get approved. Prices pump. CT declares a new cycle. Nothing changes structurally. ETFs are distribution, not adoption. The assets go up, the ecosystems stay the same. 🔸 Chain Consolidation More chains die than launch. L1s hold 90% of market cap but capture 12% of fees. That math doesn't work. Probably anything after slot #10 on Coingecko isn't needed. Capital consolidates to chains with actual usage. Fun Predictions: GTA VI ships and has more utility than @monad and @megaeth combined. And no, no crypto in GTA. Web3 gaming continues to fizzle. Nobody is asking for it. EU continues to grow its budget and warchest by fining US tech companies. @opensea launches $SEA token. NFT market remains irrelevant. Token dumps anyway. First major AI agent rug pull. CT learns nothing. @tether FUD returns for its annual appearance. Tether survives. Again. 🫡