Give @JoeValue a follow, he’s a very astute investor and super nice guy!
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I joined the MicroCapClub podcast to explain how I approach concentrated microcap investing:
• How I generate ideas
• How I counter psychological biases
• How I think about downside risk
• Why I concentrate capital in my best ideas
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Here’s your green light to go massively long oil @CramerTracker
@CramerTracker …47% ytd and almost 100% to the peak on WTI…I need to pay more attention to what @jimcramer says
Steigerwald Value retweeted
Find out how I think about big concentration
Downside protection
Strategies for countering human biases
And more
My @MicroCapClub Club Conversation with @JoeValue is out!
Joe Kaye is a former actuary who now runs a concentrated separately managed account and is preparing to launch a standalone fund. Since 2023, he's compounded client capital at close to 40% a year, holding ten positions or fewer, filtered for low valuation, low debt, and a strong position in a niche market.
This discussion took place live on July 17th, 2026, on the MicroCapClub Community. Join MicroCapClub and unlock the ability to listen and participate live in these discussions - microcapclub.com/#join
In this episode, Joe explains why he moved away from special situations investing toward high-quality, low-leverage businesses, and walks through two case studies: a semiconductor-testing microcap on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that became his best trade, and Atento, a Brazilian BPO company whose currency hedge and a cyber attack turned it into his worst. He also talks about how he manages FOMO and confirmation bias in his process.
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✉️ David’s X (Twitter) - xitter.cf/Valuehunte
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Joe's background
02:26 Transition from actuary to investing
05:21 Evolving investment strategies
08:39 Shift towards high-quality, low-leverage businesses
14:01 Managing client funds and fund structures in the UK
18:20 Concentrated portfolio and risk management
20:34 Investment philosophy and key criteria
29:28 Finding the 'Holy Grail' investments
43:03 Case study: Semiconductor business in Israel
52:36 A significant failure and lessons learned
01:05:55 The role of spirituality and yoga in investing
Steigerwald Value retweeted
All the comments below on Nike stock being down 75% are about the product, competitors, politics, macro.
None of them are about the stock's P/E ratio, which went from about 10 in 2009 to 70(!) in 2020, back down to about 20 today.
Multiple expansion and contraction can be major drivers of stock returns.
Maybe consider that as you review your current portfolio of high multiple names and what happens if they rerate.
Worth thinking about my favorite Vonnegut quote:
"All that had changed was people’s opinion of the place"
Steigerwald Value retweeted
❗️🚨Don’t click the links if you get a message like this:
People have been hacked and accounts stolen.
Including @stockspinoffss and @evfcfaddict
Both accounts compromised now and hopefully they get them back. But beware all!!
Steigerwald Value retweeted
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today.
In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when oil went negative.
In this regime, winners are survivors, defined by:
* Low maintenance capex
* High FCF conversion
* Balance-sheet optionality
* Willingness to shrink (or not grow)
Historically, extreme lows in oil/gold ratio:
→ Lead to multi-year outperformance of energy and cyclicals
→ Especially when inflation re-accelerates
Every time the ratio has been this depressed:
* Energy equities massively outperformed over next 3–5 years
* Value beat growth
We are near those historical zones. The ROC panel suggests we are reaching exhaustion levels in downside momentum.
$MC.PA @ReturnsJourney Terry Smith selling 😂 good writeup. I agree with you, this would be more interesting at 15x normalised. Cramer just told us to sell $DEO so maybe there’s more desperation in alcohol atm
Steigerwald Value retweeted
Wenn morgen nicht noch eine starke Erholung kommt, ist der März für #Euro-Investoren im S&P 500 mit -10% der schlechteste Monat seit dem Corona-März vor 5 Jahren – weil das #Aktien-Minus (≈6%) durch die krasse #Dollar-Abwertung (≈4%) verstärkt wird
Aber zur Einordnung: Seit Anfang 2020 liegt der Index inkl. #Dividenden (Gross Total Return) noch immer 91% entsprechend 13,1% p.a. im Plus – deutlich mehr als die gern auf 8% p.a. veranschlagte langfristige Aktien-Rendite.
Im Umkehrschluss: Falls der S&P 500 bis Jahresende auf Euro-Basis weitere 17% verliert, würde er gerade mal auf der 2020 gestarteten 8% Linie aufsetzen – was wir ja schon 2022 und 2023 gesehen haben.
Und um für die 2020er Jahre eine Durchschnittsrendite von 8% p.a. zu erwirtschaften, müsste der S&P 500 in Euro von heute an bis Ende 2029 nur um 13% oder 2,6% p.a. steigen – also nicht mal ein neues Allzeithoch machen.
Auch wenn Börse alles macht außer linear zu laufen: Nicht das #Kostolany-Bild von Herrchen (Wirtschaft) und Hund (Börse) vergessen. Und während der Hund dem lange kraftstrotzenden Herrchen zuletzt vielleicht ein bisschen davongelaufen war, wird's dem Herrchen nun angesichts der News-Lage schwummerig – und der Hund kommt mal zurück und guckt…
Steigerwald Value retweeted
Leider haben weder die CDU noch die SPD ein schlüssiges Konzept, wie die private Vorsorge hierzulande das klaffende Loch in der Rentenkasse schließen könnte.
Im Gegenteil:
Eigenverantwortung wird bestraft.
In der heutigen @welt:
Steigerwald Value retweeted
My friend Isaac is investing since he was 15. With 22 he is one of the most talented young stockpickers I know. Actually already better than most double his age (including me).
If you are searching (or know someone who is) a buy side analyst, I highly recommend contacting Isaac
Steigerwald Value retweeted
Ok so the French may talk about cheese too much but they do have some excellent listed businesses. 🇫🇷
Here are some we find interesting… 🧵
1)
$RBT Robertet - Engaged in the production and distribution of flavor and perfume additives and ingredients.
Steigerwald Value retweeted
How lucky we were to live at the same time as Charlie Munger and learn from him. Rest in peace, sir.
Agreed. Great hunting ground. Wish I could buy more than just ADRs.
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youtu.be/nma9qpMjVeA
Here's your signal to go long international, short QQQ from the oracle of CNBC himself @CramerTracker
Steigerwald Value retweeted
From @jasonzweigwsj: "Because the human mind hates admitting the truth that the world is largely random & unpredictable, forecasters will always be in demand, regardless of their futility.... Scott Armstrong called this the seer-sucker theory: 'For every seer there is a sucker.'"
I encourage everyone, including the author of this post to read the book "Bull" by Maggie Mahar & draw your own conclusions. However this article is disingenuous. Robinhood didn't democratize investing, low fee brokers existed for decades & $BRK.B as well
robinhood.engineering/the-ol…
