Commodity analysis at https://teapaw.org/t.co/DxachnfZ0H Head of Analysis at https://teapaw.org/t.co/mFU4CtxjDn
London, UK
Joined March 2019
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“The basics of the Brazilian countryside, and Brazilian agriculture, make such successes possible. Brazil has plenty of space, lots of fertile land, and high agricultural productivity, all combined with relatively short supply chains.”
In which I praise the food of Brazil: worksinprogress.co/issue/com…, it is too bad Brazilian food in the United States is not better.
Relative returns of making sugar or ethanol for mills in Centre-South Brazil.
Now becoming less and less meaningful for this season as the cane crush winds down. Most forecasts for next season will show mills prioritising sugar.
The speed of the reversal of the net commercial position in the raw sugar futures has also been remarkable
The scale of speculative buying in the raw sugar futures in the last few weeks has been unprecedented.
Stephen Geldart retweeted
🇩🇪 $NVO — GLP-1s are starting to change what people put in their shopping carts.
A YouGov study found that 1.7M German households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their grocery purchases by 3 percentage points more than households without users.
Potato chips: -25% among GLP-1 user households, with 5% stopping buying chips altogether.
And according to BCG, 70% of GLP-1 users say other members of their household have also changed their eating habits.
The impact may be much bigger than the number of GLP-1 users alone suggests.
And food companies are responding: protein, protein, protein.
Source: Leipziger Volkszeitung, Oct. 8, 2026
Our latest view on the world sugar production deficit for 26/27 and 27/28.
Obviously there's a huge amount of weather risk in the market for both seasons, so the forecasts are quite speculative.
Stephen Geldart retweeted
Report from Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping. V positive for #ethanol as an alternative for maritime fuel.
#corn #sugar #renewables #biofuels
At the end of last week we published our first estimate of how much sugar the world will produce and consume in the 2027/28 season.
In 2026/27 we think the world will make 0.9m tonnes too little sugar, leading to a 2.9m tonne deficit in 2027/28.
Stocks will draw down.
£3.50 for a single scoop of ice cream on a Cornish beach (and where's the fun in a single scoop?).
That was the going rate on several beaches I visited last week. You can buy a whole tub of the same brand for £4 in a supermarket.
Sugar consumption isn't just GLP-1 drugs. Prices and policy matter too. I spoke to ChiniMandi about this last week: chinimandi.com/the-biggest-t…
We now think the world will make as much sugar as it consumes in 26/27.
This isn't bullish for raw sugar prices: we still need to eat through the stock build of the past few seasons.
Consumption growth still isn't good - blame increased awareness of sugar & GLP-1 drugs.
New UK GLP-1 stats today from Numerator.
🔹6.3% of households have at least 1 GLP-1 user.
🔹Each GLP-1 user household spent GBP 418 less per year on groceries.
🔹75% ate less chocolate.
🔹72% ate fewer crisps.
Stephen Geldart retweeted
➡️ Anvisa aprova primeira caneta nacional de semaglutida #sbtnews
Ozivy, caneta da EMS com princípio ativo do Ozempic e do Wegovy, foi liberado após queda da patente da Novo Nordisk no Brasil
sbtnews.sbt.com.br/noticia/s…
