Trust is earned, respect is given. and loyalty is demonstrated. Betrayal of any one of those is to lose all three. - Ziad K. Abdelnour
Joined January 2009
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People ask me why I am so obsessed with showing that housing values in this country are stable.
The reason? This graph shows that…right now…22% of Americans still believe home values will depreciate over the next 12 months. This is ~double the pre-pandemic percentage.
That concern might cause them to hesitate in either buying or selling this year.
That is also why I am doing a FREE webinar Monday morning on the subject.
Regarding future home price appreciation, this is from the Home Price Expectation Survey (a survey of a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists) released a few days ago…
The home price forecasts for 2024 have been adjusted UPWARD from forecasts just three months ago by these entities. To them, house values will continue to be resilient in this new year.
When someone says home values “always” go up and down, let them know that…over the last 43 years…that’s not true. As everyone knows, home prices depreciated during the Great Financial Crisis.
They appreciated the other 39 years.
Regarding home prices, their “estimated performance”* as reported by the Home Price Expectation Survey this morning was revised UPWARD for each of the next four years.
*@NewsLambert 😉
Steve Harney retweeted
Should we be surprised that sales contracts signed in January, as rates were on the rise, retreated a bit? Uh, no. Rising rates hit affordability AND discourage sellers from selling. #FirstAmEcon
Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9%, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Northeast and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest and South recorded losses. nar.realtor/newsroom/pending… #NARPHS
I will also be sharing the “estimated performance” of home prices over the next 5 years and what it could mean to a homeowner’s net worth.
What happened to home prices in 2023?
What’s about to happen to home prices in 2024?
I’ll answer both those questions in depth this Monday, March 4th.
Hope to see you there…BTW, it’s FREE!!
In 2023, home prices did not face the Armageddon that many had predicted. Actually, they did better than the 40+ year average appreciation of ~4.5%.
This morning, Case-Shiller reported home prices increased 5.5% in 2023.
“Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years. With trend growth at the national level of 4.7%, a 5.5% return demonstrates solid, steady growth. While we are not experiencing the double-digit gains seen in the previous two years, above-trend growth should be well received considering the rising costs of financing home mortgages.”
Visuals to follow later today.
From the FHFA this morning:
“U.S. house prices rose 6.5 percent between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 1.5 percent compared to the third quarter of 2023.”
They also reported that home prices increased 6.6% in 2023.
Visuals to follow later today.