Engineering @Swan. Making music @thatWildeBand. Views my own. NFA.
Oceanside, CA
Joined November 2008
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Incredible time Saturday night in Chicago with @ThatWildeBand performing our 10yr anniversary show. Here’s to 10 more! Thank you for the tremendous support and turnout.
Steve Keider retweeted
Why would anyone choose a money that no government issues?
Menger, Mises and Hayek answered that long before Bitcoin existed.
On today’s OUTSIDE MONEY, from Vienna:
“THE THREE KINGS OF AUSTRIAN ECONOMICS”
Steve Keider retweeted
What if the American empire is just beginning?
We’re only 81 years into America’s run as the world’s leading power.
Rome dominated the Mediterranean for nearly six centuries.
Why are so many people convinced America’s time is almost up?
The European maritime empires had relatively small homelands and powerful neighbors. America has the resources and internal market of a continent, plus protective oceans on both sides.
Enormous agricultural and energy resources. Rivers connecting our heartland to world markets. An extraordinary ability to attract talented people and turn them into Americans.
There has never been a global power based in this particular part of the world before. Assuming we’ll follow the same trajectory as earlier powers could be a huge mistake.
China needed an extraordinary amount to go right to surpass that combination. We even helped them along with American capital, technology, and market access. But China’s share of the world economy, measured in dollars, has already fallen from its peak, losing ground relative to America in recent years.
Could America stay on top for another 500 years? We don’t know. But we don’t know that it can’t, either.
America could operate on a Bitcoin standard and still be the world’s leading power. The dollar didn’t create our geography, resources, nor our capacity to invent, build, and inspire.
On today’s OUTSIDE MONEY:
Steve Keider retweeted
"It's not supposed to work like that!"
Why are stocks AND treasury yields both going up?
Steve Keider retweeted
Did Trump finally break the British financial empire?
I went deep on the theory.
It has been weighed. It has been measured. And it has been found wanting.
Britain lost control of global finance decades ago.
Here’s the 300-year story.
I’ve said this for a while- the AI bubble will be in companies like Anthropic and OpenAI IPO-ing at ridiculous valuations - not Micron or Nvidia.
Hardware is not the bubble. Open source models still need GPUs to run on and memory to live in. Closed source model labs will be the AI bubble that materializes.
All have more risk than Bitcoin over the long term. No earnings, no dilution, no circular dealing, no centralized corporate control.
Bitcoin is ripping again, and investors are wondering if they should pile in before the bull, or keep cash on the sideline to wait for the @AnthropicAI IPO.
IT'S THE $17 TRILLION QUESTION: BITCOIN, OR ANTHROPIC?
Steve Keider retweeted
Telling you fine tuning beats base model every day
Steve Keider retweeted
Gold Is Hard Money That China Can Control
Today on OUTSIDE MONEY we figure out why China is buying so much gold, where all of it is going, and why the CCP is perfectly happy for its citizens to buy gold while doing almost everything it can to stop them from buying bitcoin.
RBX is very cool. ETF -> real Bitcoin, and numerous potential benefits, especially if you are in GBTC. The biggest benefit is the satisfaction of owning the real thing.
Years ago, before @Swan existed, she bought a lot of GBTC.
She built a position worth more than $3 million at today’s prices.
She wanted to turn those ETF shares into real on-chain Bitcoin that she could own directly, but there was a big question: what about the taxes?
Then she saw the launch of Swan.com/RBX 😎
You can restrict mining, but the miners can pick up and move- the amount of stranded energy far exceeds the capacity to extract it, and Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment keeps the most “selfish” operations in balance with the network. Study game theory!
EVERYONE IN BITCOIN IS FOLLOWING SELFISH INCENTIVES. THAT'S EXACTLY WHY IT WORKS.
Miners want bitcoin. The work they do to earn it makes Bitcoin's history expensive to rewrite.
Users want to keep the rules they signed up for. In 2017, the businesses and pools claiming over 80% of the mining power still couldn't make them accept a hard fork.
Governments can restrict mining, but miners go wherever they're welcome. When China restricted mining in 2021, the miners moved, and Bitcoin's issuance schedule didn't change.
Nobody has to agree on what Bitcoin is for.
All that and more ...in today's OUTSIDE MONEY!
Steve Keider retweeted
It’s my birthday.
Here’s something I’ve been telling the people I care about for many years.
Grid/ interconnect has been the bottleneck for years. Do you know how many companies can manufacture the grain-oriented steel inside transformers? It’s one, in the USA.
THREE WAYS THE WORLD TURNS INWARD
Are we moving from a liquidity-driven economy into a commodity-driven regime?
For decades, the world could usually produce more of whatever we wanted.
Now countries are turning inward just as AI, defense, reshoring, and electrification are demanding enormous amounts of physical capacity.
This has happened before, for very different reasons and with very different results.
1. Choice (Europe's 1879 tariffs)
2. Necessity (Napoleon's blockade)
3. Impossibility (the cotton famine)
…in today’s OUTSIDE MONEY
Jev @typesafeai is now supported in Cambium as a first-class provider.
Keep in code what can be in code. Strict typing. IR and json trace output on every run, as always.
Great way to build training data using AI for what you already use it for. Generation engineering is fun!
Cambium 0.13 is live on npm + github, with @typesafeai Jev support!
mode :decision
to write a Cambium GenModel that Jev can answer. Outputs are stored in the trace as always, and :decision gens can be used in part of a pipeline with other LLMs and providers or standalone.
Jev is amazing for quick decisions and classification. First class support for @typesafeai coming tomorrow.
mode :decision gets you there.
We're adding a new mode to Cambium: decision. This will allow calling new models like @typesafeai's Jev with a single line in any gen or pipeline stage:
mode :decision
Confidence scores will be accessible in output traces, as well as to other pipeline stages.
Steve Keider retweeted
We're adding a new mode to Cambium: decision. This will allow calling new models like @typesafeai's Jev with a single line in any gen or pipeline stage:
mode :decision
Confidence scores will be accessible in output traces, as well as to other pipeline stages.
Steve Keider retweeted
1ST RATE HIKE SINCE 2023
Warsh “not in the forward-guidance business.”
Inflation is “too high and has been for too long,”
But 17 of 18 Fed officials see the risks to inflation tilted to the UPSIDE.
THE RISK: when the Fed eventually stops hiking, that doesn’t mean long-term borrowing costs come right back down...
Time for a special @FOMC edition of OUTSIDE MONEY
Lots of hype about @typesafeai’s Jev model. Cambium gets you typed output when the model actually needs to reason and produce the output.
