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Tonight’s King of the Court pick is LIVE 👑
We’re fading Giannis!
Click the link below to get my FREE pick and full breakdown for tonight.
Let’s bring home our first NBA crown of the season!
whop.com/revolutionodds/prod…
King of the Court is BACK 👑
And this week, my full report is FREE!
Six games, no Luka, and some unfinished business.
Read the article below for tonight’s top contenders and how to get my official pick when it drops this evening.
Let’s bring home a crown 👊
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After last week’s Election Day hiatus...
King of the Court is FINALLY back tonight! 👑
Six games and NO LUKA. There’s some real opportunity on this slate, and I’ve already dug in.
My preview article will be posted by lunchtime!
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Winning a bet doesn’t always mean we got it right.
Losing one doesn’t always mean we got it wrong.
A few of you have asked for a closer look at how we evaluate our own picks, so I’m going to start posting this every Tuesday. We’ll revisit the reasoning behind each play and give ourselves a grade out of 10 for each one.
Some losses are bets we’d make again. Some winners needed more luck than we’d like to admit. We’ll look at what held up from our original handicap, where we gave the wrong things too much weight, and what we can improve in our process before putting money down next week.
Week 9 Recap: 3-4, -3.11 units.
Our first multi-unit losing week of the season.
The Panthers 3U MAX losing did most of the damage. Carolina had a chance to put us in a fantastic position, but the goal line interception changed the game, and it counts as a loss all the same.
This week there were some good reads, some bad reads, and a few things worth carrying forward.
Panthers +3 (Loss): We got the competitive game we expected. Carolina led 14-13 and reached Denver’s 1-yard line with a chance to go up eight before the tipped interception. That was a brutal swing. But they still had opportunities afterward, and the final strip sack came from the exact protection matchup we identified as our biggest concern.
We still like the Carolina bet. They had extra rest at home against Denver coming off that exhausting win over Kansas City, and they were a yard away from taking an eight point lead. The protection worried us going in, and Denver’s pass rush ended their last chance to win it. That was a painful way to lose, but we’d back the Panthers again in that spot every time.
Process grade: 7/10
Saints -3 (Loss): We beat the closing line by 2.5 points, with a strong move toward New Orleans in the final 30 minutes before kickoff. The pass rush showed up as expected, and the Saints won, but a fumble at Cleveland’s 1 yard line and another on a punt return hurt badly in a game decided by one point.
We got a great closing number, but New Orleans still had only six points entering the fourth quarter. We expected more from their offense coming out of the bye. The turnovers were costly but the Saints left themselves very little room to cover.
Process grade: 7/10
Falcons +3 (Loss): We put too much weight on Atlanta bouncing back of a shutout loss and Cincinnati coming off an exhausting overtime win. Burrow was our biggest concern going in, and he made us pay with 277 passing yards and three touchdowns, far outplaying Penix.
We left this game off our Circa card because of the international setting, then talked ourselves into a cash play. We let the shutout and overtime trends sell us on Atlanta without a convincing answer for how they would stop Burrow. This was a poor bet we’d take back.
Process grade: 3/10
Texans -5 (Win): This was our clearest matchup read, and the game played out almost exactly as we wrote it up. Houston had the extra preparation coming off the bye and a pass rush equipped to punish a Chargers team that can't protect Herbert. Stroud gave us a quarterback we could trust to take advantage, and the Texans won 44-22 after building a 38-9 lead before allowing their first touchdown.
Sometimes the bad team really is that bad. We don’t have to keep searching for the week they finally turn it around. The Chargers remain a weekly fade unless there is a strong reason to not keep picking on them.
The only thing we’d change is the sizing. This deserved more than 1U, and that’s the only thing keeping this from being a 10.
Process grade: 9.5/10
49ers: We laid double digits and San Francisco won 38-17. The Raiders’ defensive problems gave us a reason to trust Shanahan despite the injuries, and those came to fruition in spades.
We also benefited from five Las Vegas turnovers after halftime. Those helped turn a relatively competitive game into a comfortable blowout cover. If we’re pointing out the turnovers that hurt us in Carolina and New Orleans, we need recognize the ones that helped us here.
Process grade: 8/10
Bucs +6 (Win): We’ve made money backing Chicago all season, but their win in Seattle pushed their market value high enough for us to take the other side. The Bears won 27-24, Tampa covered the six, and our future bet stayed very much alive.
We caught some breaks here, too. Tampa forced five turnovers and still needed a late rally to cover. We liked the number and the matchup, but this ticket had plenty of sweat. After the way Carolina and New Orleans went, we were happy to have a close one fall our way.
Process grade: 7.5/10
Vikings +3.5 (Loss): We were torn on this game all week and made Buffalo’s offensive line injuries the deciding factor and put too much faith in Wentz producing enough against a struggling defense. We had already identified Minnesota’s poor early down offense and Wentz’s limited production in his previous start.
Those concerns deserved more weight. Buffalo losing two blockers improved Minnesota’s defensive matchup. It didn’t solve Minnesota’s offense. We should have made a stronger case for how the Vikings would score before letting the inactive list push us into the bet.
Process grade: 2.5/10
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Our biggest takeaway heading deeper into November: don’t be afraid to lay the wood when the gap between the teams justifies it.
By November, we have a much better idea of who’s good and who’s just bad. Houston and San Francisco showed why we can’t be afraid to lay the wood when the matchup calls for it. Big favorites struggled early this season, but we can’t keep using that as a reason to avoid them later in the season when the proverbial “cream rises to the top.”
We still need the right number and matchup, but we don’t need to force a “buy low” angle on teams that keep giving us reasons to bet against them.
Overall process grade: 6.4/10
Houston and San Francisco were strong reads, and taking Tampa showed we could step away from a team we’ve loved and bet on all season when the number got expensive. Carolina was a painful loss we’d bet again. Atlanta and Minnesota are the two we’d want back.
The warning signs were already in our writeups. We knew Burrow could punish Atlanta, and we knew Minnesota’s offense had serious limitations. We gave the scheduling spot, historical trends, and injury news too much influence over those decisions.
We’ve had a strong season, but Atlanta and Minnesota were bets we could have left alone.
Moving forward, we need to be more willing to pass when the matchup leaves us unconvinced, even if we love the spot.
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The same process that had us up 20+ units and hitting 65% led us to some spots that didn’t deliver this week.
The Panthers 3U was the biggest swing.
That was a BRUTAL goalline INT, but that's how it goes.
We’ve had plenty of good breaks, too, but this week, we took our lumps.
Our toughest NFL week of the season.
Unfortunately, losing weeks come with the territory of betting this league.
We’re not immune.
That’s why it’s called gambling, not stealing 😅
Week 9: 3-4 | -3.11u
📈 NFL YTD: 43-25 (63.2%) | +18.08u | 19.32% ROI
We are on to Week 10!
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75% winners on PRIMETIME 💰
15-5 on the year
Tonight, we go for the Week 9 Primetime SWEEP:
✔️ TNF: Jags -10
✅ SNF: Bucs +6 (2U)
The Inactives are finalized & the MNF pick is LOCKED IN 🔒
Let’s make it 3-0!
Get the play + writeup + First TD pick 👇
whop.com/revolutionodds/prod…
🐆
Blockbuster: the Jaguars are trading a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick to the Eagles for defensive tackle Jordan Davis, sources tell ESPN.
This is the Jaguars’ third trade for a defensive player today while the Eagles now are poised to have 10 picks in the first two rounds of the next three drafts.
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Man, what COULD have been today if the Panthers just run that fucking ball from the 1.
Could have been a damn near 15 unit day.
All things considered though, I will take it.
Onto Monday Night!
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