Chief Mid-Curver | Prev: @Shitcoinmaxi_ | Everything NFA Founded @SmResearchLab
Joined January 2025
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$IAM bull case:
• Its AI matches Google’s AlphaFold 3 on accuracy and runs ~12-15x faster (Iambic’s numbers)
• Alphabet’s Isomorphic: reportedly raising at $40B +, no drug in trials.
IAM: ~$600M (1/67th of the price), ~$190M after cash
• Enchant v3: a 41B-parameter model trained on 4.5T tokens, fed by data from Iambic’s own automated lab. Frontier-scale for drug discovery
• Lead cancer drug in 122 patients, tumours shrinking in Phase 1. Trial expanding to ~380 patients across the US, Europe and Asia
• $NVDA -backed: investor, and co-wrote the first version of the model
• Cathie Wood’s ARK was in before the IPO and bought more at it.
Druckenmiller indicated interest too.
• Backers include Sequoia, Coatue and Qatar’s sovereign fund, some of the same investors behind Anthropic
• Insiders bought substantial amounts at the $16 IPO price, above where it trades today
• Cash runway into late 2028 (company guidance)
• Pharma deals with AbbVie, Takeda, Lundbeck and Bayer
Ai / Bio.
NFA, DYOR
One last thing: Why is $IAM so volatile right now?
47.4M shares:
80% locked until April
~16% with the 10 biggest IPO buyers
~4% with everyone else, ~$19M of stock
~300K shares trade on a normal day. A few hundred thousand moves it 10%+, either way.
Who’s buying:
Cathie Wood’s ARK, on 8 of the 15 days since the IPO, including ~a quarter of the volume on the 13% drop on 5 Nov
Druckenmiller’s Duquesne indicated interest in the IPO (prospectus). The deal was 5x oversubscribed. If he wants more, $20M buys ~2M shares, about everything in loose hands.
$IAM sum of the parts, using market sizes and comps. My estimates.
- Method for each drug: peak sales if approved × 3 (a typical oncology deal multiple) × the odds of getting there.
- IAM1363 (HER2 pill, Phase 1, 122 patients dosed)
Market: Pfizer’s Tukysa, the brain-penetrant HER2 pill, sold $463M in 2025. Enhertu did $2.8B for AstraZeneca.
Odds: drugs given only to patients who test positive for a marker reach approval twice as often from Phase 1 (15.9% vs 7.6%, BIO 2011–2020). IAM1363 only treats HER2+ patients.
Bear $30M / Base $250M / Bull $500M
[Seagen paid $614M for Cascadian, Tukysa’s developer, at pivotal stage]
IAM217 (KIF18A, IND filed)
Market: no approved KIF18A drug yet. Aimed at ovarian (~21,000 new US cases a year) and triple-negative breast cancer. 10+ rivals in early trials.
Bear $10M / Base $60M / Bull $250M
IAM-C1 (CDK2/4, IND due this quarter)
Market: the CDK4/6 class sold $14.6B in 2025 (Verzenio $5.7B, Kisqali $4.8B, Ibrance $4.1B).
Bear $10M / Base $75M / Bull $300M
Partnerships: AbbVie, Takeda, Lundbeck, Bayer, RevMed. Risk-adjusted milestones plus contracted revenue.
Bear $45M / Base $150M / Bull $350M (incl. 1-2 new deals)
Platform: Enchant + NeuralPLexer
NeuralPLexer matches AlphaFold 3 on accuracy at ~15x the speed (Iambic’s PoseBusters numbers). An independent Berkeley Lab benchmark ranked it the fastest method tested.
Partners pay Iambic Isomorphic-sized upfronts: AbbVie $40M, against Lilly’s $45M and Novartis’s $37.5M.
Isomorphic, AlphaFold 3’s co-developer, is reportedly raising at ~$50B with no drug in human trials. Iambic trades at about 1/100th of that.
Bear $50M (Recursion paid $40–47.5M for small AI teams) / Base $100M / Bull $500M (1% of Isomorphic)
Cash, pro forma: ~$385-409M
Total
Bear ~$530M (~$11/share)
Base ~$1.05B (~$22/share)
Bull ~$2.3B (~$49/share), about Recursion’s market cap today
Today: ~$484M at ~$10.21. The market prices below the bear case. From here: base +115%.
It needs one thing to work, not everything:
One drug approved: a Tukysa-sized HER2 pill is worth ~$1.4B at approval, ~3x today’s market cap. That alone makes it a multi-billion company.
One more big deal: three pharma deals in eight months (Takeda, Bayer, AbbVie). Upfronts went $10M → $27M → $40M since 2024.
One more model jump: Enchant went 1B → 7B → 41B parameters in two years and scored higher each time.
The board has sat on the other side of ~$9B of BMS acquisitions: BMS’s former chief medical officer, plus directors from Mirati ($4.8B) and RayzeBio (~$4.1B). They know what buyers pay for, and how to get it.
TL;DR:
$IAM priced its IPO at $16 three weeks ago, more than 5x oversubscribed.
At $10.21 it trades ~$1.60 a share above cash, below the bear case. For that you get:
Platform revenue: $12.8M from partners in H1 2026, up from $3.9M a year earlier
Milestones: the first success-based payment already hit, five drugmaker partners signed
Drugs: three shots, and one approval makes this a multi-billion company
Technology: Enchant scaled from 1B to 41B parameters in two years
AlphaFold proxy: a listed way to own what Isomorphic is being valued at ~$50B
NFA, DYOR
SM retweeted
$IAM when market is irrational, I do not blink twice.
IPO 5x oversubscribed @ $16 USD.
Trading now at $10 which is almost below their cash position.
Analyst coverage starts on Monday.
Let's come back to this on next week.
$IAM AI hype? Look at the drug it made.
Most HER2 breast cancer pills also hit a near-identical protein in skin and gut. That causes the side effects that force dose cuts.
Iambic's AI found a pocket on the cancer protein that its twin lacks. IAM1363 is the only known drug of its kind that binds there.
It hits HER2 2,800x harder than the twin in lab tests. Closest rival: ~1,200x. It also reaches the brain, where up to half of these patients see their cancer spread, and beat the two leading drugs there in animal studies.
It's in 122 patients now.
For scale: Seagen paid $614M in 2018 for tucatinib, a brain-penetrant HER2 pill in a pivotal trial. IAM1363 is earlier but more selective.
It's one of three $IAM drugs, before you count the NVIDIA-backed AI or the Enchant model AbbVie and Bayer pay to use.
At ~$10: ~$480M market cap, ~$449M cash ($40M from AbbVie). Everything else is priced at ~$71M.
$IAM AI hype? Look at the drug it made.
Most HER2 breast cancer pills also hit a near-identical protein in skin and gut. That causes the side effects that force dose cuts.
Iambic's AI found a pocket on the cancer protein that its twin lacks. IAM1363 is the only known drug of its kind that binds there.
It hits HER2 2,800x harder than the twin in lab tests. Closest rival: ~1,200x. It also reaches the brain, where up to half of these patients see their cancer spread, and beat the two leading drugs there in animal studies.
It's in 122 patients now.
For scale: Seagen paid $614M in 2018 for tucatinib, a brain-penetrant HER2 pill in a pivotal trial. IAM1363 is earlier but more selective.
It's one of three $IAM drugs, before you count the NVIDIA-backed AI or the Enchant model AbbVie and Bayer pay to use.
At ~$10: ~$480M market cap, ~$449M cash ($40M from AbbVie). Everything else is priced at ~$71M.
SM retweeted
Great, now I have to go back and edit every $IAM article. "1/67th the price of Isomorphic" is already out of date.
It's now ~1/78th.
On a serious note, this is big for the thesis. Isomorphic is reportedly raising at $50B with no drug in human trials.
Iambic has a drug in 122 patients, AbbVie paying for its AI, and trades at ~$640M.
The gap keeps getting wider.
Long $IAM, NFA.
This is big for the $IAM thesis.
Isomorphic, a competitor Iambic names in its own prospectus, is reportedly raising at $50B. No drug in human trials yet.
Iambic's NeuralPLexer is ~15x faster than AlphaFold 3 with similar accuracy, has a drug in 122 patients, and trades at ~$640M.
1/78th of the price.
SM retweeted
$IAM: three deep dives on Iambic Therapeutics in one place.
An NVIDIA-backed AI drug discovery company with two models, a drug in the clinic, and AbbVie, Takeda and Bayer as partners.
After cash, the market values all of it at ~$230M.
The Iambicpedia so far 👇
SM retweeted
New $IAM deep dive.
Last time: NeuralPLexer, Iambic's structure model, ~15x faster than AlphaFold 3.
This time: Enchant, a 41B-parameter model that predicts how a drug behaves in the body before it's made.
AbbVie signed up the day it launched. After cash, the market values all of it at ~$230M.
Long $IAM, NFA.
Love him or hate him, taking the dinner with @AtlasShrug1 may of saved me more than $100k..