Investor, Trader & a Stock Market Enthusiast. Guest Journalist at @GoNews_India Not SEBI Regd. | No paid service | No workshops | No telegram nonsense!
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Joined December 2012
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If the war was getting over the Brent Crude will not claw back to 100$ in no time - we are still up from 50-60$ and trading at 100+, High was 114 recently, we have dipped 14% from there and our markets have recovered, but for further rally we need the Brent problem and the War problem to solve - in our view that is still far from happening, please be careful and don't be mad bullish on leverage, take care of excesses that are already built on the price, 22100 to 24700 is a very very good rally almost 12% or 2600 points, generally that is one year's movement in normal market scenario, you have got it in 10 days - We issued a note at 22300 saying markets are at bottom in our view, it dipped 200 points further from there before bouncing - now our view is - the problems are far from over, prices have already rallied a lot especially of the index.
No one will be able to figure out the exact bottom, if one has the stomach to take a maximum hit of 1000 points from here at 22350 safe to long on stocks and ETFs - yes in our view that is the maximum downside left till say 21500 or so - personally feel this is the bottom but my feeling will not dictate terms so naturally saying can start to go bullish but keep blood pressure pills nearby.
People who are criticizing ramayana like anything go head over heels over marvel movies, continuous disrespect for our own stories, products and then we can't fathom why we have no pure brand business thriving outside india as export without catering only to indian diaspora.
I don't know in 2026 why this needs to be taught to people by Courts or by Government or by Celebrities, and what is in there to play a victim card when someone says the right thing on this?
The firecrackers hurt the lungs of our senior citizens, they hurt the well being of animals and they hurt the environment which is the most godly thing left on our planet.
I have also burst firecrackers as a child without knowing the depth of impact my actions have had, if you cannot look inwards and correct your own behaviour and make it better for people you love or who co exist with you, well god help you!
Took risk - bought EB GNG 583 at LC.
It is down 25% from top and i think decent correction done, numbers showed 50% revenue growth 93% pat growth QoQ, DRAM shortage - Computer, Mobile, Laptop becoming really expensive, no decent seconds player except this.
The short side trade is over in AI (ex-Spacex), Data Center, DRAM, Semicon sector - recovery can be V Shaped, globally.
In India important to track - CGPOWER, NETWEB, GNG ELECTRONICS, in this space.
When i was bullish in march on midcaps at 22500 Nifty most people said 18000 will come war wont stop, When i was later bearish at 24500 Nifty for 21000, people really fought with me - some went on to say i am being anti national by being bearish, then when i felt 22300 is rock bottom level for a surprise mad rally people said Brent is going up again we cant rally, Now at 24700 when i say best part of rally is over and a fall can start again anytime and Brent is not going to crash further (said at 92$) people are saying all time high is coming and I am supposedly wrong again.
I am not surprised with this, when I penned in January 2020 that Coronavirus is coming to wreck the world economy and markets - people in my own circle said i was being oversmart, only to end up stocking up atta, maggi and hoarding sanitizer few weeks later.
Parag Milk 335-340 booking gains!
Portfolio Addition: Parag Milk cmp 244 sl 220 expecting a quickfire 300-350
India's protein deficiency is massive, it has been in the news for a while, Urban India is seeing high demand for Whey.
Parag Milk has the country's biggest Cheese capacity, and the biggest Whey Protein mfg capacity.
Available at 0.7x market cap to sales, 22x p/e.
Milky Mist at 5x market cap/sales and 125x p/e.
CG Power 793 to 735/-
Actually 890 to 735 because in June gave the same view at 890.
CG Power 793 - Stock is about to break 200 DMA on closing basis - negative triggers getting activated - global sell off in AI and SEMICON stocks also not helping the inflow cause, feel if 850 is not regained stock has open downside for 600 and lower.
Although a word of caution - results today should be good.
Indigo 5435
Think the move is stretched out now and can surprise with downside.
Stock is trading close to its highest since War.
It moved from 4300 to 5450 in just 11 days last time when Brent Crude had dipped from 98$ to 70$ in June end.
This time it has given the same move in 9 days when Brent has dipped 117 to 94$.
As you can see the range of Brent is getting pushed higher and costs are piling up!
Brent Crude @ 93$ now as we said.
Crude might bottom out around these levels - be careful, game is not over yet, we expect WAR to restart this weekend with Trump going hammer & tongs.
Waaree Energies at 2450 up by 100 i think still very under-valued.
This should be flying - All US Solar stocks have shot up already, this also stands to benefit from India-US Trade Deal.
Yeah we shared the script on 27th October and it is happening as per the script exactly.
If Netanyahu loses Israel, Trump loses US mid-term polls.
What it can mean for markets :-
1- Iran War may end or get halted and enter de-escalation mode.
2- Sanctions on Russia will re-start, more support to Ukraine.
3- AI will get less support from Govt, Strict safeguard rails will be brought to ensure it does not threaten humanity.
4- Clean energy such as Solar will again gain traction in USA as per democrat position. (sentimental impact)
5- Official appeals may be lodged to re look into Adani DOJ settlement.
6- Post or Before Anthropic IPO, AI stocks may see profit booking
7- Crude may cool-off on de-escalation.
Note: Trump losing mid-term puts democrats in a strong position but Trump can use executive orders to do a lot of things but he may or may not commit excesses with a looming impeachment threat.
Missed out on 700 points run despite cashing in on 1400 points almost 50% more gains missed.... DAMN!