Nigel (@StratLaboratory) header
Nigel (@StratLaboratory) profile picture

Trader. Researcher. Data geek. I study what happens before stocks make exceptional moves Author, TheStrat Protocol | Building https://teapaw.org/t.co/9SiVa2zgvQ

Warrington, UK
Joined August 2025
Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)Photo by Nigel (@StratLaboratory)
Replying to @StratLaboratory
Triple Digit Breakouts drops Q4 2026. . Sign up for more chart breakdowns and manuscript sneak peeks: swingthestrat.kit.com/e91be9…
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Part 2 of All About Gaps is now live. No two gap-ups are created equal. What makes some gaps worth buying while others are better left alone? And what trade-offs do we make when hunting for exceptional winners? The study covers 633,571 gap-ups to explore what goes into building a better scanner. thestratlab.substack.com/p/a…
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Three months ago, I wrote about one of our biggest challenges with ML: explainability. It's one thing for a model to tell you a stock is bullish. But why? What is it seeing? And what might it be missing? We've been working on stacking confluences, bringing together signals from price action, momentum, volume, fundamentals and ML to build a more complete picture of each stock. You can now see where those signals agree, where they conflict, and what's driving the model's conviction... There's still plenty of work to do, but I'm really pleased with how this is shaping up. What's next? We're pushing the envelope on theme detection, bringing individual stock signals together to spot where money is flowing and which themes are gaining momentum. Can't wait to show you what's cooking in the lab!
I genuinely love X for the way ideas pollinate and how we as traders and builders improve and push each other to keep raising the bar. Sometime toward the end of last year, @ybd65sge told me about his openShift rig for automated trading using ML models. Coming from a data science / ML background, that conversation really inspired me to push the envelope with building models of my own and using them for inference. In Q1 this year, I built the first model and, as you can see from the March tweet, we had our initial reinforcement learning loop up and running: teapaw.org/StratLaboratory/status… Since then, we’ve added more capacity: we now have four different models in play, all making daily predictions, getting scored and improving with every prediction. The models even communicate with each other to compare notes. It’s still early days and there’s a lot of work ahead, especially model explainability at scale. On the backend, I can always dig into logs, trace why a prediction was made and interrogate the rationality of a given decision. Doing that for one ticker is fine, but doing it for hundreds in a way that gives a human trader on the other end of the screen the same level of conviction the model has is a very different beast. Each model is trained on 400+ features, so the next frontier is figuring out how to surface that complexity in a way that’s intuitive, intellectually honest and actually useful/actionable for traders making real decisions. Today, I just wanted to say thank you to @ybd65sge for inspiring me and providing the spark I needed.
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Here's the full list: EVER, SIBN, TBBB, OPRT, MAR, FWRG, HNGE, BETA, HURN, DD, CE, NBIX, PCOR, ECHO, RVTY, TLN, YUMC, RRX, TEM, EXPD, ATRC, OGS, FOXA, FOX, III, VVX, ALSN, JBTM, EL, WAT, TOST, SBRA, HUN, VRNS, WAY, GIC, MG, TCMD, LMB, ALKS, ALIT, CNK, UFCS, BOW, GEF-B, HNI, O, ASC, AMRX, AAPL, SGHC, LBTYK, LBTYA, PJT, PLTR, ECG, PSTL, XYZ, ETN, MEC, BRCC, ERO, SMCI, BXC, NPO, NVGS, AMD, LSCC, ON, FN, SNDX, AEIS, SHOP, HLIT, AEHR, PAX, TVTX, ARVN, KODK, EBS, DT, PAM, UPST, DOCN, ALAB, MOD, BLZE, MDGL, ICHR
Tickers showing accelerating fundamentals this month… $SMCI stands out. Latest quarterly revenue of $19.95bn, up approximately 298% YoY and 79% QoQ.
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SPY, QQQ and DIA are below their 10, 21 and 50-day moving averages. IWM remains below its 50-day. Unless stock picking is your edge, this isn't the time to force long trades. You have three choices: 1. Stay in cash. 2. Go short. 3. Use this weakness to identify the next market leaders.
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First, look for stocks with strong fundamentals. Screen for: • Earnings reported within 30 days • Quarterly earnings and sales growth >40% • Daily dollar volume >$25m • Price >$10 • Average volume >1m shares These aren't buy signals. They go onto a watchlist that you track every day. Read more: thestratlab.substack.com/p/h…
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Then look at price action. Which stocks are holding up while the indices sell off? Look for: • High relative strength • Stocks making new one-month highs • Strong daily and weekly closes • Bullish price action above anchored VWAP • Clusters of strength within the same industries Again, these are watchlist candidates, not automatic buys. The idea is to identify where money is flowing, track those stocks every day and be prepared when the indices repair themselves. Read more: thestratlab.substack.com/p/h…
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$LMND - Sellers in control across the board. FTFC down, taking the short. #TheStrat
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$AKAM - Breaking down through Friday's low. Short is on.
Here are thematic clusters of tickers that are 2uR on the week. Will be watching for simultaneous breaks at the open and looking to take shorts where I see actionable signals settin g up. - Software: AI, NIQ, FIVN, AMPL, DOCU, ESTC, FSLY, GTLB, HUBS, NAVN, PCTY, PD, WDAY, WK, PATH, MDB, IOT, DBX, AKAM, TRI - MedTech: BRKR, LIVN, CBLL, ALGN, ENOV, GMED, PRCT, ISRG, NEOG, RVTY, TXG, COO, CYRX - Cyber: CVLT, MITK, ZS, RBRK, PANW, SAIL, CRWD, OKTA, CHKP, ATEN, NTSK - Biotech: IMNM, ERAS, CRVS, VCEL, XNCR, EWTX, COGT, HROW - Healthcare: AMN, HCSG, AVAH, OMCL, HQY, PHR, DOCS - Semis: HSAI, COHR, JBL, MU, SMTC #TheStrat
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$CNXC - Added back the 2/3 I trimmed at the top. Double inside break to the upside. #TheStrat
$CNXC - Took another 1/3 off Top of broadening formation - magnitude has been hit.
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$DNOW - Nice 2 to 3 month base building here, with a controlled pullback. Watching for respect of the reclaim lines. Earnings are close though, so this isn't the time to get involved.
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Here are thematic clusters of tickers that are 2uR on the week. Will be watching for simultaneous breaks at the open and looking to take shorts where I see actionable signals settin g up. - Software: AI, NIQ, FIVN, AMPL, DOCU, ESTC, FSLY, GTLB, HUBS, NAVN, PCTY, PD, WDAY, WK, PATH, MDB, IOT, DBX, AKAM, TRI - MedTech: BRKR, LIVN, CBLL, ALGN, ENOV, GMED, PRCT, ISRG, NEOG, RVTY, TXG, COO, CYRX - Cyber: CVLT, MITK, ZS, RBRK, PANW, SAIL, CRWD, OKTA, CHKP, ATEN, NTSK - Biotech: IMNM, ERAS, CRVS, VCEL, XNCR, EWTX, COGT, HROW - Healthcare: AMN, HCSG, AVAH, OMCL, HQY, PHR, DOCS - Semis: HSAI, COHR, JBL, MU, SMTC #TheStrat
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$DXC - is there a buyer in here? #TheStrat
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Remember when the space theme started getting liquidated BEFORE SpaceX went public? $RKLB, $ASTS, $PL all rolled over ahead of the $SPCX IPO. Now Anthropic is preparing to go public. Are we the same thing play out with the AI theme?
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You're holding a winner. It gaps up 10% overnight. Do you take the money and run, or risk watching those profits disappear? We've all heard that gaps tend to fill. But here's what the data says: Nearly 80% of gaps larger than 2 ADR that survived the opening session were still unfilled five trading days later. Are you protecting your profits, or selling a stock that might have much further to run? Part 1 of my new research series, All About Gaps, is live. thestratlab.substack.com/p/a…
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I hope you enjoyed my previous four-part series, "The Science of Stops" thestratlab.substack.com/p/t… This Friday, I'm starting a new research series: "All About Gaps". Do gaps really fill? Should you buy at the open or wait for a pullback? Can you recognise an exhaustion gap before it's too late? Wht if you're already holding a winner, should you sell into the gap or let it run? More importantly, how much of what we've been taught about gaps actually holds up when tested against historical data? In Part 1, we'll start with the basics and look at how often gaps fill, whether size matters, and how long those retracements take.
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$HTFL - The longer the base, the higher in space
$HTFL - nice 3 month base while the general market has been rolling over. Great RS and if you like your chart patterns, it's also a high tight flag!
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$NVAX - Could this be the bottom of a Broadening formation? #TheStrat
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$TEM - Double inside day expansion #TheStrat
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One of the most rewarding things about being an author is seeing readers apply what they've learnt to their own trading, whether that's becoming more patient, reading price action better, improving discipline or making better decisions. Thank you to everyone who's shared their experience. #TheStrat
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