strong america indicator that defaulting private prison operators are now marketing their sites as prospective data center locations

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Market exit cap % is a debatable. Often base it on “forward 12 NOI”, e.g. next buyer yr 11 NOI on 10-yr hold. Regarding market exit cap to use, typically add expansion to acct for ”age” for bldg obsolescence, increased competition, etc. Reversion value usually has more weight if do IRR partitioning for operating vs reversion cash flows on the subject prop. For exit cap, maybe use ~50bps (per below) vs 10bps/yr or 100bps (what I was taught). Perhaps acct for ups/downs in 10 yrs. Tough to predict what happens in 10 yrs. Short term hold w/ relatively quick value-add is diff. May still add expansion though. “On a 10 yr hold, terminal value is typically somewhere between 1/2 & 2/3 of tot value in deal. Value is final year NOI / your exit cap. So how should you set it: Start at entry cap, not at a market avg Add 25 to 50 bps for 10 yrs of age bldg will have gained Add more if the lease structure shortens or the sector is structurally out of favour Only compress it if you can name the specific reason, a repositioning, a lease regear, a sector rerating, and you are willing to defend it Exit cap = entry cap is not conservative. It is an assumption that the world stands still for a decade.“ Credit: Anita Melice for the quote above