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$QCOM beat on revenue and EPS, and the stock fell more than 4% after hours anyway.
Fiscal Q4 revenue was $10.32 billion against $10.11 billion expected, down 8% from a year ago.
Adjusted EPS was $2.17 against $2.16.
Smartphone chip revenue missed estimates, even after Qualcomm raised prices in September.
The guide was mixed.
For the December quarter, Qualcomm sees revenue of $10.4 to $11.2 billion, a midpoint above the $10.48 billion expected, but EPS of $2.15 to $2.35 against $2.27 expected.
The reason is the same one that hit Apple and Intel this week: memory. AI servers are soaking up memory supply, prices are rising, and that raises costs for phone makers and squeezes demand.
The Apple story is now baked in.
CEO Cristiano Amon said the December guide includes no further Apple sales, after Qualcomm had already said Apple revenue would fall about 50% from the September to December quarter.
The fiscal 2027 outlook assumes no Apple at all.
Qualcomm’s answer is everything that isn’t a phone.
Automotive hit a record near $2 billion. IoT grew 4% to $1.88 billion. Amon says non-handset revenue should grow more than 60% in fiscal 2027, with design wins up 70% excluding Apple.
He reiterated a $5 billion data center target for fiscal 2027, with custom chip programs for two hyperscalers starting this quarter and a goal of $15 billion a year by fiscal 2029.
The stock was already down about 9% over the week going into the report, and options had priced in a move of roughly 9%.
The market is willing to pay for the non-handset story, but it wants to see it in reported numbers while the phone business, still the largest, shrinks.
$AMD beat, raised, and guided 2027 growth above 80%.
The stock gave back more than half of its premarket pop anyway.
Q3 revenue was $13.38 billion, up 45%, against $13.06 billion expected.
Adjusted EPS was $2.09 versus $1.95.
Data Center hit a record $8.55 billion, up 97%, and is now about 64% of sales, up from 47% a year ago.
The guide is what moved the stock.
AMD forecast Q4 revenue of about $17 billion, plus or minus 3%, against roughly $16.2 billion expected, and CEO Lisa Su said demand is running ahead of supply as Helios racks and Venice server chips ramp.
The setup mattered as much as the numbers.
AMD had fallen about 24% in the month before the report, including an 11% drop last Friday after Intel’s PC warning, so expectations had been reset.
It jumped about 7% premarket to near $518, then faded to close at $498.69, up 3.1%.
There was a reason for the fade.
An $1.1 billion non-cash charge tied to customer warrants pulled GAAP EPS down to $1.46. Client and Gaming fell 8% to $3.7 billion, with gaming down 40%, which is Intel’s PC weakness showing up in AMD’s numbers.
The Q4 gross margin guide of 55% is a point below this quarter’s.
Analysts mostly raised targets.
JPMorgan moved to $575 and stayed Neutral.
The AI side is accelerating, the PC side is softening, and the stock is up more than 120% this year, so a beat and raise is already the baseline.
AMD was priced for about a 9% move.
Check the expected earnings move for upcoming reports on Stryke strykedesk.com/implied-earni…
The Dow just had its best day since April 2025, and it wasn’t about earnings.
The Dow rose about 3%, roughly 1,500 points, back above 53,000 for the first time since Sept 8.
The S&P 500 gained about 1.7% for its best day since April 8, and the Nasdaq rose about 1.8%.
CFRA says it was the Dow’s biggest post-midterm one-day gain since 1982 and the S&P’s biggest since 2018.
Three things drove it.
1) Certainty. Democrats won both chambers, so the question hanging over the market is answered, and investors have historically liked gridlock.
2) Oil. Crude fell more than 8% as traders weighed what a Democratic Congress means for the Iran war, and it is down about 12% over four days. Cheaper oil eased the inflation fear that has been pushing yields up.
3) Yields. The 10-year fell back from roughly 4.97% to around 4.92%.
The rally also followed a rough stretch.
The Nasdaq-100 closed Monday more than 10% below its Oct 6 record, in correction territory, and the S&P 500 is still about 1.5% below its record close of 7,818.93.
One day of relief doesn’t erase a month of AI-spending worry, but it changes the setup going into the jobs data later this week.
#USMidterms #USMidtermElections
Volatility is back on both sides.
Before you position, check the expected earnings move for upcoming reports on Stryke
strykedesk.com/implied-earni…
Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in Tuesday’s midterms, flipping seven Senate seats and putting the House at roughly 250 to 268 seats in projections, the largest House majority in nearly two decades.
Republicans entered the night holding 53 Senate seats, and Democrats needed a net gain of four.
The flips included Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, and the House gains reached districts that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024.
Analysts pointed to the Iran war, higher gas prices and affordability. Vice President Vance blamed the war for Republican losses.
Trump told CNBC he can work with Democrats on “many more things than people understand.”
The Dow had its best post-midterm day since 1982, and Trump-trade names like SpaceX, Tesla and defense stocks sold off.
The S&P 500 has been higher a year after all 19 midterm elections since 1950, by about 15% on average, and gridlock has historically been fine for stocks.
The new Congress doesn’t take office until January, so policy on tariffs, the war and spending isn’t changing yet.
What changed today is the uncertainty. That’s what the market priced.
#USMidterms #USMidtermElections
With the election behind us, the next catalysts are on the calendar.
See what’s moving markets next on Stryke
strykedesk.com/economics-cal…
$INTC beat earnings and lost 28.6% in a single day, its worst session since 1974.
Revenue was up 21%. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.52 against $0.40 expected.
Data center and AI revenue jumped 78%, which the CFO called the strongest server growth in 15 years.
The stock still went from $92.07 to $65.76 and erased more than $140 billion in market value.
The Q3 numbers were fine. The Q4 guide was not.
Intel guided revenue of $15 to $16 billion when Wall Street expected $17.05 billion, and EPS of $0.25 against roughly $0.43.
Gross margin is guided down to the high 30s from 44%.
The reason is the PC business, still about half of Intel’s revenue.
Customers began signaling a slowdown tied to memory prices and availability, and Intel says it arrived “sooner and deeper” than planned.
It now expects industry PC units to fall about 12% this year and about 10% in 2027, and the CFO said the slowdown should last at least through the first half of next year.
The server side has its own problem. Demand is booming, but substrate and memory shortages are still limiting supply.
The CFO also said 2027 will likely be an investment year without positive free cash flow.
The damage went beyond one stock.
Intel was already down about 23% in October before earnings, so Friday took the month to roughly -45%. AMD fell about 11% the same day.
The U.S. government’s 9.9% stake, bought at $20.47 a share, lost about $12 billion in value in a single session.
Monday brought another drop of roughly 8% after downgrades from Bank of America and D.A. Davidson.
Analysts are split. Bernstein cut its target to $75 from $110 and called the outlook “terrible.”
KeyBanc argues the foundry, packaging and server story is intact and sees more than $30 billion of outside foundry and packaging opportunities by 2030.
Intel nearly quadrupled into its June record, and more than half of that is now gone.
The bull case is that servers are booming. The bear case is that half the company just hit a wall.
Gross margin was 47.9%, including about a point of tariff refunds, and Apple guided December to 45-46% against 46.3% expected.
At the midpoint that’s its lowest margin since fiscal Q4 2023 and a third straight decline from 50.1% in June.
Ternus said memory costs will be even higher in December and keep rising beyond it.
The stock is down about 4%, right around the 4.4% move options had priced.
Revenue was $114.5 billion, up 12% and a September-quarter record, versus $113.4 billion expected, with EPS of $2.10 versus $1.99.
iPhone grew 17% to $57.6 billion, Mac grew 24%, and Services hit an all-time high of $31.6 billion. iPad and wearables both declined.
The number that spooked the market was total contract value, which grew just 6% to $2.9 billion after 49% growth last quarter, with U.S. commercial TCV up 11% versus 153%.
Goldman noted the company attributed some of it to shorter contract durations.
The stock fell as much as 7.3% at the open and was down about 2-4% by midday, inside the roughly 11% move options had priced and far from the 29.5% jump last quarter.
Revenue came in at $2.31 billion, up 96% and well above the $2.18 billion expected, with adjusted EPS of $0.44 versus $0.41.
U.S. commercial revenue grew 148% to $984 million and passed U.S. government revenue ($953 million) for the first time ever.
Full-year guidance went to about $8.53 billion from $8.15 billion, and the Q4 guide of about $2.65 billion is well above the $2.46 billion Street number.
Analysts’ full-year numbers imply Q4 revenue near $16.2 billion, about $3 billion above Q3, as MI450 and Helios racks start shipping.
A guide well short of that would suggest the ramp is later or smaller. The last three reports moved the stock about -17%, +18% and -7%, and options are pricing about 9.2%.
Consensus wants about $1.95 EPS on $13.1 billion in revenue, up about 41% from a year ago and in line with AMD’s own $13 billion guide at roughly 56% gross margin.
Data Center was 58% of sales last quarter at $6.7 billion, up 107%, while Client was 27%, which is the part Intel’s warning touches.
Midterms are tomorrow, and history says the result may matter less to the market than the fact that it’s over.
The S&P 500 has been higher a year after every midterm election since 1950. Thread below.
#USElections #Midterms2026
Prediction markets give Democrats roughly a 94% chance of winning the House and about 73-74% in the Senate, but those are odds, not results.
The data on a divided Washington is mixed: Ned Davis found the S&P averaged an 8.8% gain over the next year when the president’s party lost the House, versus 14% across all midterms.
That is lower but still positive. Past returns aren’t a forecast, and Fed policy, earnings and the AI trade probably matter more than the result.
The S&P 500 gained an average of about 15% in the 12 months after each of the last 19 midterm votes, and none ended lower.
The run-up is usually rougher: in midterm years the index’s biggest peak-to-trough drop has averaged 17.5%, the deepest of any year in the presidential cycle. The fourth quarter of midterm years finished higher 16 times out of 19.