Turd Ferguson is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent handle on the gold and silver markets.
Anytown, USA
Joined February 2011
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Here's a link to this year's macrocast. If you're interested in following the precious metals in 2026, please take time to look this over and then join us at TFMR!
tfmetalsreport.com/blog/1350…
TF Metals Report retweeted
🚨 JUST IN: After leftist President Lula was declared the winner, Brazil's top election judge says the last-minute order keeping polls open "created DIFFICULTIES in the electoral process," adding "no rule authorized ANY extension"
"NEVER in the history of the [Brazil's election court] has there been an extension."
Conservative Bolsonaro had NO CHANCE against the rigged election machine.
The extension came at the request of leftist Lula's campaign, and Lula won.
Remarkable admission by this judge. 👀
🚨 UPDATE: Leftist President Lula has RETAKEN THE LEAD from conservative Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff, by a RAZOR-THIN margin with just over half the vote counted
Keep in mind, Lula's former personal lawyer, now a Supreme Court justice, extended voting at polls still open after a request from LULA'S CAMPAIGN.
It's going down to the WIRE 👀
Current tally is 50.23% Lula, 49.77% Bolsonaro
TF Metals Report retweeted
Imagine if the President was elected by Popular Vote.
Then the polls close, but the polls in NYC, North Virginia, Maryland, and Atlanta stayed open because they knew that the Dem Candidate was going to have SCOTUS keep the polls open, but only for polling places that didn't close.
The Republican areas closed as the law required and they didn't know that order was coming, and it gives Dems 2+ hours of voting.
That was Brazil tonight.
TF Metals Report retweeted
Imagine the Supreme Court stopping the count after polls close and ordering polls reopen for two hours ONLY in Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Atlanta, and you sort of get the scope of what's currently happening in Brazil.
TF Metals Report retweeted
Agnico Eagle reports Wednesday after the close. Here’s the math it has to clear.
Production so far in 2026:
Q1: 825,109 ounces
Q2: 855,816 ounces
First half: 1,680,925 ounces
Full-year guidance: 3.3 to 3.5 million.
To land inside it, the second half needs 1.62 to 1.82 million ounces. That’s roughly 810,000 to 910,000 a quarter.
Q2’s 855,816 sits right in the middle of that band.
Wednesday’s number is Q3. What management says about Q4 matters more.
$AEM
Easy to overlook Dwarf Awareness Day..
Tonight, Cardiff Castle will light up green to mark Dwarfism Awareness Day. 💚
The illumination celebrates diversity and helps raise awareness and understanding of dwarfism. orlo.uk/S4Qel
ALT Cardiff Castle illuminated at night by bright green floodlights against a dark sky. Caer Castell Caerdydd wedi'i oleuo wrth nos gan fflachlysau gwyrdd disglair yn erbyn awyr dywyll.
TF Metals Report retweeted
The Pentagon is ordering all U.S. military bases to stockpile a minimum of 90 days of supplies. EVERYTHING - food, water, medical supplies, energy, you name it.
What do you suppose that means for what Trump knows is coming? And if the Pentagon has 90 days of supplies to survive completely off grid, how many days of supplies should YOU nail down?
TF Metals Report retweeted
BREAKING: Pentagon prepares every major US military base to operate for at least 90 days without outside electricity, fuel, water or supplies, anticipating a major war that could cripple power grids, break global supply chains and threaten critical infrastructure on US soil, per Fox News.
The plans include portable nuclear reactors, large-scale battery storage and microgrids able to disconnect installations from the civilian electrical grid entirely.
TF Metals Report retweeted
Major bank #Gold forecasts around the January 2026 top 👇
▪️ Jan 22 | Goldman Sachs: $5,400 by year-end.
▪️ Jan 23 | Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett: $6,000 by spring.
▪️ Jan 23 | Morgan Stanley: $5,700 bull case for the second half of 2026.
▪️ Jan 26 | Société Générale: $6,000 by year-end, suggesting that could be conservative.
▪️ Jan 27 | Deutsche Bank: $6,000 during 2026, with a $6,900 alternative scenario.
▪️ Jan 29 | UBS: $6,200 for March, June and September. Upside scenario: $7,200.
▪️ Jan 29 | JPMorgan strategist: $8,000–$8,500 over coming years, conditional on increased investor allocations.
#Gold peaked at $5,594.82 on January 29.
When I see similar names all coming out around the same time calling for lower prices after this brutal decline, I’ll take that as a signal that the bottom is likely within 1-2 weeks.
The pattern is striking.
TF Metals Report retweeted
As of Tuesday's close...and before the $2.70 smash of yesterday...the NET long position of the Managed Money in Comex silver and the NET long position of the broader Large Speculator category was the smallest recorded since late February of 2024.
TF Metals Report retweeted
i got curious about what dario (anthropic CEO) is predicting next, so i went through all his recent essays and interviews
if he keeps being correct, here's what our future timeline looks like:
> 2026: someone builds a $1B company with just 1 employee
> late 2026-early 2027: AI matches or beats nobel prize winners in most fields, from biology to math
> 2027: chinese AI catches up to Mythos, the model anthropic kept from the public because it's so good at hacking
> 2027-2028: AI gets better than every human at almost everything, with millions of copies running 10-100x faster than us
> 2027-2028: AI starts building the next generation of AI on its own
> 2028: AI is using 100 gigawatts of power, about a fifth of all the electricity america uses
> by 2030: AI disrupts half of all entry-level office jobs
> before 2030: AI brings in trillions of dollars a year, and the economy grows 10-20% a year
> early 2030s: cancer deaths drop 95%, alzheimer's becomes preventable, and nearly every infectious disease can be prevented or treated
> early 2030s: most mental illness, like depression and PTSD, becomes curable
> 2030s: sub-saharan africa gets as rich per person as china is today
> 2030s: the human lifespan heads toward 150
TF Metals Report retweeted
Harvard published a paper with a devastating title: “Large-Language Models as a Cognitive Virus”
They modeled ChatGPT as a virus outbreak.
they mathematically modeled llm adoption using an epidemiological framework, treating AI like a biological virus infecting human culture and reshaping how information is produced.
the paper models a population-level tipping point.
it shows the exact threshold where a society goes from "healthy tool use" into a structural, hard-to-reverse dependence.
the framework proves that widespread llm adoption triggers non-linear collective transitions that depress our cognitive autonomy.
we are offloading so much reasoning that the "infection" becomes persistent.. we stop thinking, and the host system (us) is permanently modified.
the same models identify conditions for "cognitive immunization".
if we actively reduce transmission and build friction back into our thinking processes, we can reverse the dependency.
figuring out how to build safety guardrails isn't just about limiting compute or model weights anymore..
it’s about preventing a collective cognitive collapse.
As of Tuesday's close...and before the $2.70 smash of yesterday...the NET long position of the Managed Money in Comex silver and the NET long position of the broader Large Speculator category was the smallest recorded since late February of 2024.
TF Metals Report retweeted
This is the harbinger of what's coming for the copper industry...
Jubilee Metals, a small copper producer in Zambia, reports that sulfuric acid costs surged over 200%, while diesel costs jumped 90%.
The shortages have already hit copper production...
Some metal processors in the region were even forced to temporarily shut down production amid sulfuric acid shortages and soaring diesel costs.
And this is just the beginning...
You can't produce copper without the physical inputs.
TF Metals Report retweeted
BREAKING: Brent crude oil prices surge above $117/barrel for the first time since March 19th amid fears that the US will renew strikes on Iran.
Brent crude oil is now $2 away from breaking above its high of the year.
Inflation expectations are pushing higher.
TF Metals Report retweeted
UBS is out with a fresh research note on gold, the Swiss bank views gold near $4,000/oz as an opportunity to accumulate, with longer-term demand expected to support a recovery.
The key points:
🥇$4,000 is where UBS expects meaningful buying. It anticipates longer-term buyers stepping in around that level, helping establish a price floor. This is a demand-based argument, beyond simply identifying a round-number technical level.
🥇Real yields and the dollar explain the immediate pressure. Higher inflation-adjusted US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while dollar strength adds another headwind.
🥇Gold has held up relatively well against those pressures. UBS argues that its sensitivity to real interest rates has weakened because structural demand provides a stronger offset than in previous cycles.
🥇Central banks remain important buyers. UBS continues to expect annual purchases of 750–1,000 tonnes, supported by reserve diversification.
🥇The expected catalyst is a reassessment of Fed tightening. UBS sees lower real yields eventually helping gold stabilize and resume its advance toward year-end and into 2027.
🥇UBS’s broader thesis also rests on rising government debt, debt-servicing burdens, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about currencies’ purchasing power. Its October 20 public commentary reaffirmed a $5,400/oz target for September 2027. $GLD $GDX $GDXJ
TF Metals Report retweeted
The US government cannot afford higher interest rates.
If interest rates average +150 basis points above CBO’s February projections by 2036, US deficits would increase by nearly $6 trillion over this period.
The deficit would then rise to 8.8% of GDP, the highest level since WWII, excluding 2008 and 2020.
This would also push the US public Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 133%, up from ~100% currently.
If rates average +50 basis points above projections, deficits would increase by nearly $2 trillion, lifting the Debt-to-GDP ratio to 124% by 2036.
Just weeks ago, the 10Y Note yield traded at ~5.30%, or ~100 basis points above CBO’s average projected rate over the next 10 years.
The US government needs rate cuts.
TF Metals Report retweeted
JUST IN: UK police arrest 15 y/o boy, seize his devices, & collect his DNA after he posted photo of a local politician edited to look like a rabbit.
