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CPI is done. The trade isn't.
bitcoin:native is back at $74,050 after CPI flushed it to $72,727 yesterday. It's holding above the 200-day average near $73,190, still well under yesterday's $75,442 high.
Here's what needs to happen before we take the next trade, and where we'd be wrong.
We're going through it live at 12:30 GMT.
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Bitcoin has never had two red years in a row.
2025 closed down 6.3%. bitcoin:native is down 16% this year, from $87,648 on 1 January to $73,651. If 2026 finishes red, it would be the first back-to-back decline on record.
2015, 2019 and 2023 all recovered after a single red year. Is the four-year cycle still alive, or did it die when institutions arrived?
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bitcoin:native dropped from $74.7K to $73.5K in just seconds.
That was the minute CPI hit. Longs got flushed first. Then shorts piled in right on top of the 200-day average near $73,200.
When everyone's shorting into support, someone's about to be wrong.
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October CPI printed +0.4% MoM, hotter than the +0.3% consensus. Core was +0.3% vs +0.2% expected.
BTC went from $74,411 at the 13:29 GMT close to $73,733 by 13:32 GMT.
The first move after a print often gets tested. We will wait for the 15m close.
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October CPI lands today at 08:30 ET / 13:30 GMT. Consensus is +0.3% headline MoM and +0.2% core. Last official annual rate was 3.7%. BLS will not publish a YoY figure this print.
Weekend low $73,510 is the level to watch. We're not front-running the number.
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bitcoin:native flushed to a weekend low near $73,510. A small bounce printed, then stalled.
Last around $74,220. CPI lands Tuesday and PPI Friday, so we're not chasing into the prints.
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New on the TMM Regime Dashboard: the Positioning Cohorts panel.
It answers one question: who is actually positioned where?
Five independent cohorts:
• DEX whales (@HyperliquidX, on-chain)
• CEX top traders (@binance, position-weighted)
• The crowd (global accounts, read contrarian at extremes)
• Institutions (CME, via the CFTC COT report)
• Options (Deribit put/call open interest)
Every source is public and every line can be checked.
Day one reading: whales and institutions short, the crowd crowded long, Binance top traders starting to lean the other way. Composite: MIXED.
One cohort flipping is a trade. The whole market flipping is a regime change. This panel is how we tell the difference.
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