Let em play
Arizona, USA
Joined July 2019
- Tweets1.7K
- Following386
- Followers101
- Likes6.5K
JTM retweeted
Yes, these next six months are historically quite bullish, but when Congress is fully to the Democrats it turns out the S&P 500 does even better.
Never lower six months later (11 for 11 higher) and up 16.5% on average.
JTM retweeted
Dan Clifton of @BairdStrategas is always great. Nice listen on TCAF with @Downtown and @michaelbatnick. I really liked these two charts.
@TheCompoundNews
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet 🚨
On episode 267 of The Compound and Friends, @Downtown and @michaelbatnick are joined by Dan Clifton of @BairdStrategas to break down the post-midterm market chaos, the AI stock selloff, growing backlash against data centers, and why stocks could be setting up for a rally.
Plus, the future of the Fed, oil prices, healthcare stocks, and what Washington's political shakeup means for investors.🎙️
JTM retweeted
First things first, the OG @StovallCFRA has shared this for years, so shout out to him for this one.
It took 23 trading days for the S&P 500 to be down 5% from the Oct 6th ATH.
Sam found that most bear markets started with a quick move down 5% from ATHs. In fact, only one bear market ever (34% in late '60s/early '70) took longer than 23 trading days to hit down 5%.
Could this go into a full fledged bear market? Of course it could, but for now we don't expect that and this suggests don't panic just yet.
JTM retweeted
Does anybody with $150K in capital gains want to get married this year? I have $150K in capital losses and we can offset them and keep the gains tax free.
JTM retweeted
There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had.
A Republican president and Democratic sweep has seen the best S&P 500 forward returns out of all midterm scenarios for the last 100 years.
JTM retweeted
The fastest route to every gas station in America. This is absolute art. I legit watched this 13 times on repeat.
JTM retweeted
You’re 400 million times closer in size to the observable universe than to the Planck length.
Let that sink in.
JTM retweeted
6,000 years of world history on a single timeline. Zoom in. You could spend 30 minutes exploring this.
JTM retweeted
$161,628,892 in career earnings later, Amar'e Stoudemire is now a police officer in Miami 🫡
JTM retweeted
This is the most INSANE statistic about the market I have ever seen.
If you bought the S&P 500 $SPY after every midterm since 1950…
12 months later you would’ve been up 19 out of 19 times.
That’s a 100% WIN RATE.
Average gain: ~15%.
But here’s the crazier stat:
Since 1942, $SPX every November-to-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21/21.
Average: +16.6%.
That’s also a 100% WIN RATE.
Everyone is trying to predict the election.
I’m watching a 80+ stat that hedge funds follow.
Save this.
Closed my first successful cash-secured put.
~40% return on cash in just under a month using ~$12,000 of collateral.
The play: 9/11 sold $RDDT @ $6.70 → bought back 10/9 @ ~$4.00
Thanks @LukeFalasca for the trade setup and idea!
1
63
JTM retweeted
JUST IN: British man who set out to walk around the entire world in 1998 finally returns home after 28 years, covering over 31,000 miles across 29 countries without transportation.
JTM retweeted
HOW TO BUY YOUR FIRST LEAP.
1. More than 6 months out. January 2028 or later is ideal.
2. Delta near 0.80. You want it to move like the stock.
3. Only on a name you would hold for 2 years.
4. One contract controls 100 shares. Size it like 100 shares.
5. Time decay is slow early and fast late. Close or roll with 6 months left.
6. Take profits in pieces. You do not need to hold to expiration.
Which one do people skip the most?
JTM retweeted
A study of autopsy results found the mean age of death for tattooed persons was 39 years, compared with 53 years for non-tattooed persons. The presence of any tattoo was more significant than the content of the tattoo.
JTM retweeted
Selling options, in plain English.
- Put: a promise to buy 100 shares at a set price.
- Call: a promise to sell 100 shares at a set price.
- Strike: that price.
- Premium: your pay for the promise.
- Expiration: when the promise ends.
- Assigned: the promise got called in.
That's it.
JTM retweeted
I just found the CRAZIEST market statistic
Use this. It’s the roadmap to get rich.
19 FOR 19
Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm year.
That’s a 100% WIN RATE
19 midterms.
19 times higher.
Average gain: ~15%.
21 FOR 21
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21 straight.
Average gain: +16.6%.
YEAR 3 = HISTORICALLY THE STRONGEST
The year after midterms has historically been the strongest year of the 4-year presidential cycle.
Average gain since 1950: ~18%.
So remember:
Market is
19/19 after midterm year
21/21 Positive returns
Year 3 = historically the strongest.
Now you know when to go heavy into the market again.
