PhD student. Founder. Complexity Science & Systems Engineering, Philosophy of Software Architecture, Creator of residuality theory. https://xitter.cf/t.co/mMqriWDnb3
Joined March 2019
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Black Tulip Technology retweeted
These people are delusional because they simply don't understand the technical tension between stochastic models and the fat tail of probabilities we face in our everyday lives. At best, they hand-wave away the hard part which they aren't closer to solving for 50+ years now.
Anthropic's Sholto Douglas says AI capex could rise from $1 trillion this year to $4 trillion in 2028 and begin doubling humanity’s GDP by the early 2030s
“Over the course of the last four or five years, we’ve been 2x-ing or 3x-ing the amount of compute capacity devoted to AI every year."
"And so I think that’s roughly, together, the hyperscalers are spending about a trillion dollars this year on capex related to AI. A very interesting question will be, will that trend line hold, and so will it go to $2 trillion next year and then $4 trillion in 2028?"
"And if that trend line broadly holds, and you can expand that to encompass the broader robotics industry, then that means that in the early 2030s, you start to get to the point where you’re actually effectively doubling the GDP of humanity, which, again, is a little bit of a ridiculous concept, but requires a lot of things to go right.”
Black Tulip Technology retweeted
It is indeed possible to understand an entire (large) codebase. No, not memorize every file and line, but absolutely know what each system/component does and where to find it. It's called software architecture and hard work. Something we lost a while ago apparently.
Was just explaining to a skeptical 9yo that if everyone was just pretending that Santa was real the act of everyone buying and wrapping up presents and leaving them under trees would actually cause Santa to suddenly exist, so therefore Santa must exist. QED.
In terms of seeing the world through the MS stock price he’s probably right.
For years, Bill Gates said he was optimistic that the world would become a better place thanks to AI.
But in a new essay, Gates says he is worried that AI could do more harm than good. wapo.st/4qWPtqF
Black Tulip Technology retweeted
First year of PhD: “There’s so much I don’t know.” Last year: “Neither do they.”
If it is true that a sample of human text provides all the answers to every question in the future then the only thing left to do is go fishing. If this isn’t true, which is most likely, but people won’t stop insisting it is, then I can’t be arsed and will just go fishing.
The democratization of mediocrity continues at full pace. Only those with something to offer will resist! For years the tyranny of the Enlightenment as precursor to the Industrial Revolution kept production tied to new ideas and thinking, soon we shall be free of these burdens!
This is what too many people think architecture is, which is why we need them to think.
If it’s only $200 to produce a mathematical proof and we have these huge data centres then math will either be finished by Wednesday or the whole industry once again will be implored to read “Fooled by Randomness”.
And I can’t believe how many mathematicians don’t get that.
Writing code is more than just producing an app. It’s a way of thinking through how an organisation works. It contributes more than code files to an organisation. Mass producing code is cargo-culting for growth. It’s meaningless productivity theatre.
Everyone knows I'm super AI-pilled. But one trend I'm noticing as I talk to more and more companies: the personal productivity gains are not translating into organizational growth and efficiency as expected.
It's an odd dichotomy. Individuals are more productive. Engineers are writing an insane amount of code. But the gains aren't showing up in the numbers yet.
Not sure how universal this is.
Remember when we said everyone was cooked and they would all lose their jobs and that never happened? Let’s forget about that and do the same for maths because AI churned through a few proofs. Let’s extend it to all science for the clicks. It’s inevitable. Really, this time.
Black Tulip Technology retweeted
تجربه مشترک این روزهای ما توی نرمافزار اینه که آدمای بیرون این حوزه میپرسن «AI قراره حذفتون کنه؟» و اگر جواب چیزی غیر از «آره، همگی داریم حذف میشیم» باشه، یعنی ترسیدی، تعصب داری یا هنوز واقعیت رو نپذیرفتی. احتمال اینکه شاید دو تا نکته بیشتر بدونی هم معمولا روی میز نیست.