Building a long-term HSA portfolio from zero. Undervalued compounders, disciplined valuations, public thesis tracking. Capital allocation is the mission.
Joined July 2026
- Tweets995
- Following260
- Followers260
- Likes13.8K
Pinned Tweet
New HSA. Starting from zero
Goal is to build a long term portfolio of undervalued compounders in public. Publishing the thesis, value assumptions, risks, purchases, and mistakes along the way
Quality determines what enters the nest. Valuation determines where the next egg goes.
15
46
1,795
Terrible day but extremely happy how the HSA has performed.
-1.08%? On the day
+17.27% on the year (effectively July 30th)
1
4
40
$CAT down 6% today and 50% from highs looks interesting to me.
Back log is deep. Behind the meter power is potentially even more valuable if data centers start getting canceled/moved as that typically restarts the clock on interconnects to the grid.
Add to that more plans for $CAT to serve as the permanent power plant for more and more data centers.
Long term I think this is a great business. Digging into the details for where I think it’s a great price for one of my next eggs 🥚
1
2
143
It already looks pretty attractive here. 18x is around $CAT historical baseline and the call option on expanding the prime-power sales could lead to durable margin growth at justifiably higher multiples.
$580-$600 good buy
$550-$575 very attractive buy
$500-$530 exceptional buy
1
55
$BKNG earnings ended up pretty good. AI fears seem over stated. Hitting good on KPIs (Room nights +7%, Gross bookings +10%, Adjusted EBITDA +9%, strong buybacks leading to strong Adjusted EPS +17%)
Gonna have to start looking for new eggs as everything’s rerated much higher post earnings!
1
47
$GOOGL actually put a datacenter in space and people think it’s over
A ‘hello world’ milestone for Project Suncatcher 🚀
After launching our prototype satellite a few weeks ago, we’ve now successfully sent a command up to orbit, booted up the TPU, ran the prompt, and received our first complete response back on earth - a haiku!
3
67
The Loser List (Top 10 worst S&P 500 stocks YTD) as of 10/29 close
Amazingly $RDDT is down another 20%+ overnight after bad earnings…
$APP -62.2%
$CSGP -58.2%
$FICO -58.1%
$BSX -55.2%
$INTU -49.5%
$CHTR -47.8%
$LULU -47.2%
$PODD -46.4%
$RDDT -43.6%
$FIS -42.1%
Any of these stocks worth Knife catching?!? Historically they outperform over the next 90 days
2
221
I’ll be buying the dip in $GOOG at some point here…
the underlying business is doing great. There’s practically unlimited demand for their cloud business, and search revenue is still up double digits.
$275 is where you back the truck up then forget about it for a year + imo
1
3
92
🪿 $WING is showing some serious life!
Up 14% today and 48% from September lows
The fascinating part? The actual Q3 numbers weren’t particularly pretty:
Same-store sales: −5.4%
Adjusted EPS: $1.08, slightly beating expectations
Revenue: $185.1M, missing expectations
2026 guidance: Same-store sales expected to decline 6.5–7%
Restaurant expansion: 76 net new locations
This suggests investors may be starting to look past the current sales weakness toward a recovery.
Three things I like here:
Comps improved from −7.5% in Q2 to −5.4% in Q3.
Management reported encouraging early indicators from its marketing, operational, and loyalty initiatives.
Wingstop repurchased 190,688 shares at an average of $131.12, with another $288.4M authorized for repurchases. Wingstop Restaurants Inc. Investor Relations
What are yalls thoughts on $WING long term?
3
7
230
$WING beat
$AON beat
Time to wait for the earnings call and see if it means anything
$Wing I’ll be looking for same store sales revenue, and guidance on new store growth.
$AON the story is can they keep organic growth up with margins expanding, and Whats the $UGI integration/debt repayment plan?
3
155
Good start to earnings week for this goose!
$SPGI up ~4% to $469 🪿
• Revenue: $3.68B (+7%)
• Adj. EPS: $4.58 (+9%), beating estimates
• Indices revenue +20%
• Full-year guidance raised
• Exploring a Capital IQ separation
1
4
169
Oof SPGI from +4% to red post call.
Notes:
AI borrowing boom hasn’t translated into increased Ratings revenue.
Management deferred detailed 2027 guidance until February.
Capital IQ spinoff complicates valuations
Buybacks will be debt funded. $SPGI plans $2B of debt issuance alongside the expanded repurchase program
Overall certainly not selling any. Will continue to hopefully add on any dips
2
131
Bottom in on memory? Lots of positive news hitting the tape.
$DRAM closing about $50 I think makes for a good swing long towards $60
1
5
135
This really is insane. When does it stop getting better and what does getting better even look like?
2023: GPT-4 almost solved grade-school math
2024: IMO silver
2025: IMO gold
2026 May: Erdős unit-distance conjecture
2026 Sep: Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem solved
2026 Oct: 722 AI-written math manuscripts
Today: OpenAI proves ETH is false
Tomorrow: P = NP?
4
49
