The Hickory Group

Last January, we compared ChatGPT to AI’s “Big Bang” and predicted 2024 would be AI's "primordial soup" year. “There is much potential in the air, and yet it is amorphous," we wrote at the time. Now, the AI ecosystem has hardened. In a new post, we share 3 new predictions:

Per Bloomberg, “US Consumer Sentiment Slumps as Inflation Expectations Rise” (details below). Add that to other indicators of the slight stagflationary wind blowing through the economy. #economy #growth #inflation #econtwitter

3/3 Roach’s thesis from May 2020 months ago was prescient & well-reasoned, allowing many firms to provide early guidance to clients and colleagues.

Whilst recent events in the Middle East, combined with the US' domestic inflation issues, creates an opportunity re Clarity of Risk & strategic planning Why Clarity? Typical planning for White Swan & Black Swan events requires projecting "what if" scenarios Today: War, Supply Chain disruption, Inflation don't need to be projected, they are front and center issues Difficult environment, yes, but Clarity of Risk provides a level of Certainty of Rewards for enterprises that plan & act

Whilst recent events in the Middle East, combined with the US' domestic inflation issues, creates an opportunity re Clarity of Risk & strategic planning Why Clarity? Typical planning for White Swan & Black Swan events requires projecting "what if" scenarios Today: War, Supply Chain disruption, Inflation don't need to be projected, they are front and center issues Difficult environment, yes, but Clarity of Risk provides a level of Certainty of Rewards for enterprises that plan & act

Expo West revealed two trends that are likely to have very different outcomes. Create a business around the wrong trend and you could be in for a very tough road ahead. So where is the biggest opportunity in CPG right now? Two trends that continued to be prevalent at Expo West this year: 1. Protein 2. Gummies Gummies everywhere as a delivery vehicle for x, y and z functional benefit. There were even manufacturers of gummies with booths vying for your business. Expect no less of these products to hit the market in the coming years. But the novelty is already beginning to wear off. There are only so many gummies you can consume in a day. I wouldn’t be rushing to launch a product like this. Protein on the other hand has legs. This is a secular market trend that will only continue to grow as consumers become more educated on the benefits of consuming appropriate amounts of protein. Most importantly, with an aging population that is increasingly being told that they need to maintain muscle mass to avoid aging and fragility there are new market segments to target with protein. It is not just young men wanting to look like the Rock. There is also a growing understanding of the importance of protein consumption, especially early in the day, to satiate the appetites of children and teenagers, fueling their growth and tempering behavioral issues that are amplified with high sugar diets. So, protein consumption is bound to grow steadily for many years to come across age levels and demographics. Where do the best opportunities lie for protein? Currently, you see brands trying to apply protein across the same snacking and beverage options – protein bars, balls, drinks, chips. But new form factors make a lot of sense. For example, it is harder to replicate the crunch and experience of a chip without overdoing the fat content. New convenient, and more natural ways to deliver protein will evolve. Some will be less processed products. Some more innovatively processed products in new form factors. There will be both sweet and savory options. And always convenient packaging. If you require the need to add water, mix ingredients, perform more steps, the friction will shrink the total addressable market significantly. Keep the product simple, easy to understand and ready to consume. Oh, and delicious. Then hold on to your hat, you might be in for a wild ride.

Feb retail sales were a big disappointment, and much worse if you adjust for inflation; in real terms, retail sales are now down 3.2% since Apr '21 - people may be spending 12.9% more dollars, but they're buying less actual stuff: