Iowa asked for help today. Apparently everyone left them on read. 😂
Minnesota, Miami, Missouri, Cincinnati and Washington—all came up short in the biggest outside games for the Hawkeyes.
But the most important result? Iowa took care of that themselves.
24–10 over Northwestern. Our pregame model projected 24.5% CFP odds with a win, versus just 0.2% with a loss. Right in the hunt.
Wisconsin, Alabama and Oklahoma did chip in—each worth a modest 0.2–0.3 percentage-point boost in our pregame projections.
The outside help wasn’t much. The Hawkeyes’ own win was everything.
See how every game impacted Iowa today:
therootingguide.com/?team=Io…
Wow, what a game!
HUGE win for Notre Dame. Our pregame model put the Irish at 99.2% CFP odds with a win, up from 87.7%.
And Miami? Still at 98.2% in the loss scenario. The sky isn’t falling in Coral Gables.
But a LOT of other fan bases were borrowing Miami gear tonight. LSU, Alabama, Tennessee and plenty more wanted the Hurricanes to keep Notre Dame within reach.
The exception? BYU.
Outside Notre Dame, BYU was the ONLY team with a projected boost greater than 0.1 percentage points from an Irish win: +0.7.
Rough day in Provo. At least the temporary Notre Dame fandom paid off. ☘️
Beat LSU. Thank Oregon. Quietly acknowledge Auburn helped. Immediately change the subject. 🐘
Alabama handled Death Valley, 31–13.
Our pregame model put Bama at 95.6% CFP odds with a win—a 19.1-percentage-point boost.
Oregon knocking off Ohio State supplied the biggest outside assist. South Carolina helped, too. We’ve already said enough about Auburn.
Now it’s time to throw up The U and practice a reluctant “Go Dawgs.”
The graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments for tonight 👇
For every game’s impact on Alabama’s playoff chances:
therootingguide.com/?team=Al…
That one hurts. Losing to Utah needs no additional commentary tonight.
But BYU’s playoff path is still very much alive.
Our pregame model put BYU at 38.5% CFP odds even with a loss today. And our odds-by-record model gives a 10–2 BYU an 82.3% chance to make the playoff.
There’s still a lot worth playing for.
If you can stomach more football tonight, the graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments. Apparently the recovery process involves cheering for Notre Dame. 😅
For every game’s impact on BYU’s playoff chances:
therootingguide.com/?team=BY…
UCLA beat Oregon. Then Oregon went to Columbus and did UCLA a favor. Very considerate. 🦆🐻
The Bruins handled Minnesota 34–20. Our pregame model had UCLA at 54.4% CFP odds with a win, versus 21.3% with a loss.
Oregon beating Ohio State supplied the biggest outside assist: +3.9 percentage points of modeled help. A better-looking win on UCLA’s résumé AND a setback for a Big Ten title-game competitor.
Now trade the temporary duck costume for some Northwestern purple.
The graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments for tonight 👇
For every game’s impact on UCLA’s playoff chances:
therootingguide.com/?team=UC…
Oregon went to Columbus and declined the playoff obituary. 🦆
41–28 Ducks.
Our pregame model had Oregon at 25.7% CFP odds with a win. With a loss? 0.2%.
Alabama beating LSU supplied the biggest outside assist. Oklahoma State winning helped, too.
Now comes the truly unexpected part of this season: Oregon fans getting emotionally invested in Northwestern football.
The graphic has your top 5 rooting assignments for tonight 👇
For every game’s impact on Oregon’s playoff chances:
therootingguide.com/?team=Or…
Houston’s playoff hopes nearly had a Cincinnati-shaped hole in them.
Win: 43.4% CFP odds.
Lose: 1.8%.
That’s what was at stake in the pregame model. 😅
Utah beating BYU delivered the biggest outside assist. Now Houston fans get to yell “Go Dawgs,” throw up The U and learn Country Roads.
Who to root for tonight 👇 See the graphic.
For every game’s impact on Houston’s playoff chances:
therootingguide.com/?team=Ho…
Arizona fans, you can breathe now. Barely. 😅
29–28 keeps the playoff dream alive. How close was the cliff? Our pregame model had a loss to TCU dropping Arizona’s CFP chances from 12.4% to 0.1%.
The win scenario: 14.7%. Survive first. Ask for help second.
Now trade “Bear Down” for “Go Bearcats.” Cincinnati beating Houston is the biggest remaining opportunity for help in our model.
You’ve supplied enough drama for one weekend. Let somebody else sweat.
Top 5 remaining games in the graphic. For who to root for in EVERY game 👇
therootingguide.com/?team=Ar…
Lobos fans, what a few days. 🐺
UTSA loses. New Mexico handles Nevada 31–3. And Saturday hasn’t even started.
The biggest boost? UTSA’s loss: worth +5.6 percentage points to New Mexico’s CFP chances in our pregame model.
Beating Nevada carried a smaller +2.0-point upside—but a loss projected a devastating 17.8-point drop. Taking care of business was HUGE.
Now kick your feet up and become a Colorado State fan. A Boise State loss is the biggest remaining prize.
And yes… you’re rooting for New Mexico State, too. Playoff dreams make you do strange things 😂
Top 5 remaining games below. For who to root for in EVERY game 👇
therootingguide.com/?team=Ne…
Three favorites. Two seats. And four teams waiting for somebody to trip.
Utah, Texas Tech and BYU lead the race to the Big 12 title game. Houston, Arizona, Oklahoma State and Baylor are close enough to make a slip expensive.
Enter BYU–Utah.
A BYU win takes the Cougars’ CFP chances from 51.4% to 80.2%. A Utah win takes the Utes from 83.4% to 95.0%.
Texas Tech’s assignment is less glamorous: don’t make West Virginia the story. A loss drops Tech from 44.8% to 12.1%.
Meanwhile, Houston has 37.1% CFP odds but just a 13.6% chance to reach the conference title game.
There’s more than one way into this playoff. 👇
therootingguide.com/conferen…
UCLA leads the Big Ten. The playoff odds haven’t gotten the memo.
The unbeaten Bruins are only THIRD in the league in our CFP model, behind Indiana and Ohio State.
And don’t bury Oregon yet. Beat Ohio State Saturday, and the Ducks’ CFP chances jump from 6.2% to 25.7%. Lose, and they’re down to 0.2%.
Iowa deserves some attention, too: a win at Northwestern takes the Hawkeyes from 12.7% to 24.5%.
Indiana gets to watch all this from the couch. UCLA has to handle Minnesota.
therootingguide.com/conferen…
The SEC standings look like a group project where nobody agreed on an answer.
EIGHT teams have one or two losses overall. TEN still have at least a 4.5% chance to make the CFP in our model.
Saturday:
• Alabama at LSU
• Georgia at Ole Miss
• Texas at Missouri
• Kentucky at Tennessee
That’s all eight of those teams playing each other.
Kentucky is tied with Georgia atop the conference standings, yet Alabama and Texas have much better playoff odds than the Wildcats.
Which brings us to the question this league is determined to make the committee answer:
How many 9–3 SEC teams can you fit in one playoff?
Saturday starts sorting out whose three losses might be survivable. 👇
therootingguide.com/conferen…
Miami–Wake Forest in the ACC title game feels obvious.
The model says: don’t print the tickets yet.
Miami has a 99.8% chance to get there. Wake? 69.3%.
Five teams with two conference losses are waiting behind the Deacs—and SMU still has an 18.3% chance to crash the party.
Wake gets Merrimack this week. SMU gets Virginia Tech, then hosts Wake next week. That’s where this race could get interesting.
And while Miami visits Notre Dame, the ACC has a bigger question hanging over it:
Who delivers a second playoff bid?
Wake is the strongest candidate behind Miami, but an upset conference champion could offer another route.
The ACC’s playoff picture is bigger than its title-game favorites. 👇
therootingguide.com/conferen…
Texas Tech fans probably hoped for a little more love from the committee. But the playoff hunt is very much alive.
First: beat West Virginia. A win keeps things moving. A loss could send those CFP hopes off a cliff.
Then? Hotty Toddy. Go Canes. Go Ducks.
The biggest opportunities for outside help this week are about Tech’s at-large path more than its Big 12 title hopes.
The top 5 games are in the graphic. For who to root for in EVERY game, check out the full rooting guide 👇
therootingguide.com/?team=Te…
Wake fans: feeling a little disrespected at #16?
Merrimack probably won’t raise your blood pressure Saturday. The rest of the scoreboard might.
Wake has a 45.3% chance to make the CFP in our model—and plenty of opportunities for help this weekend.
Handle business. Then learn to throw up the U. 🙌
These are the top 5 games that matter for Wake. Want to know who to root for in EVERY game? Check out the full rooting guide 👇
therootingguide.com/?team=Wa…
Florida Atlantic just made a lot of fans in Boise, Albuquerque and Lynchburg!
The Owls hung SIXTY on UTSA—and shook up the G6 playoff race.
UTSA entered with a 20.1% CFP chance. Our pregame model put a loss at just 2.6%.
The biggest projected beneficiaries? Boise State, New Mexico and Liberty.
See what this result means for other teams’ CFP chances:
therootingguide.com/game-imp…
Which teams have the MOST at stake in the CFP race this weekend?
We looked at it two ways.
🔥 Texas, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Boise State could all see their playoff odds swing by 50+ percentage points depending on their own game.
But the REALLY interesting stuff? The games teams aren't even playing in.
👀 New Mexico's CFP odds swing by an incredible 20.8 points depending on Boise State vs. Colorado State.
And they're not alone. That ONE game has massive implications for the entire Group of Six playoff race.
Two graphics:
🏈 The 10 biggest swings from a team's OWN game
🍿 The 10 biggest swings from SOMEONE ELSE'S game
Your team might not even be playing, but that doesn't mean its playoff chances aren't on the line.
Full rooting guides for every team:
therootingguide.com
Indiana is ranked #4 in the country. And that might be the most important thing about its bye week.
The committee just gave the Hoosiers something incredibly valuable: margin for error.
At 88.9% CFP odds, Indiana is in a fantastic position. But with another loss still possible, this weekend offers a chance to build even more breathing room.
Here’s the twist: What’s good for Indiana isn’t necessarily what’s good for the Big Ten.
The Hoosiers should actually be rooting AGAINST undefeated UCLA and ranked Iowa. Both losing would improve Indiana’s playoff outlook.
No game for Indiana this Saturday. But plenty of reasons for Hoosier fans to pay attention.
See Indiana’s full rooting guide:
therootingguide.com/?team=In…
Should USC fans be upset about being ranked #20 by the committee?
There’s certainly an argument for it. But the bigger story is that the Trojans aren’t dead yet.
At 9.1% CFP odds, USC still has a path. It starts with winning out, but the Trojans could use some help along the way.
And some of that help might surprise you.
Yes, USC fans should be rooting for undefeated UCLA. The stronger the Bruins look when USC faces them, the better.
And keep cheering for Fresno State. That win on USC’s résumé looks better every week the Bulldogs keep winning.
But elsewhere? It’s time to root for some playoff bubble chaos.
USC wants LSU, Ole Miss and Houston to lose. Fewer contenders fighting for those final at-large spots means a better chance for the Trojans.
The committee hasn’t closed the door on USC. But the Trojans need to make sure it stays open.
See USC’s full rooting guide:
therootingguide.com/?team=US…
Winning your game doesn’t always mean winning the weekend.
Some of this week’s CFP odds swings were predictable. These were more interesting:
📉 Indiana, BYU and Notre Dame fell after wins.
📈 LSU and Alabama climbed on byes.
📉 UTSA and Houston fell on byes.
BYU’s twist: the weekend’s results actually HELPED. But BYU’s strength rating slipped while Utah and Baylor improved, making its remaining schedule tougher.
UTSA’s conference title odds barely moved. Its CFP odds fell 8.3 points as Boise State tightened its grip on the G6 spot.
Your team’s result is only part of the story.
