The Wall Street Republic

"Buying a house is always the smart move." Is it, though? EP 2 puts property and stocks side by side, one card at a time, and lets the math decide. Some of it might surprise you. 👇 thewallstreetrepublic.substa…

Markets rarely get blindsided. As the AI trade sold off hard over the last five weeks, it was likely already pricing in both the midterm results and the Jensen headlines. Anyone treating this news as a fresh shock is reading the tape backwards.

$NVDA The Jensen infidelity story may be the weakest bear thesis of this entire bull market, and that is a crowded field after years of absurd narratives. Personal headlines rarely move AI capex math. The debate stays on demand, margins and supply.

Former leaders typically move from base to advance, then top and decline, before a longer stretch of underperformance. The cycle is easier to read if you stay objective instead of trying to outsmart the market. Cycles change. Price action and psychology do not.

Nasdaq corrections since this bull market began in late 2022: 11.8%, 8.1%, 15.5%, 25.5% (tariffs), 12.6%, 11.3%, and now 15.2%. Every prior pullback eventually recovered to new highs. The bearish case has to explain why this one breaks the pattern.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Wall Street clawed back some of Thursday's AI wipeout, but it was a mixed finish and the week still stung. The S&P 500 rose 23.13 points (+0.31%) to 7,376.86, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 264.42 points (+1.09%) to 24,579.42 after Thursday's correction, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.89% to 2,754.11. The Dow Jones slipped 237.33 points (−0.46%) to 51,285.73. SPY closed at $735.29 (+0.31%), QQQ at $656.10 (+1.40%) and IWM at $273.67 (+0.99%). For the week the S&P fell about 2.7%, its worst since the April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariff shock, per AP. 2. The bounce was the flip side of Thursday's $3T scare: investors are still sorting out what a Democratic House-and-Senate sweep means for AI data-center buildouts, with state and local ballot measures and governors now in the mix. CBS cited more than 40 data-center restriction measures approved by voters, while TipRanks flagged Texas governor-elect Gina Hinojosa saying she does not oppose new data centers but wants companies to consult local communities — a clarification that helped IT lead S&P sectors Friday (+1.26%). Asia and Europe stayed under pressure overnight, with South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei both down about 6% on the chip hangover, per AP/BBC. 3. Semis and AI proxies led the rebound. Nvidia NVDA rose 2.78% to $186.64, Micron MU 5.12% to $690.00, Sandisk SNDK 3.55% to $835.06, Intel INTC 7.71% to $56.28 and AMD AMD ripped 11.04% to $449.04. SOXX gained 3.51% and SMH 3.62%. Hyperscalers were mixed: Alphabet GOOGL +0.78%, Meta META +0.84%, Microsoft MSFT −0.99%, Amazon AMZN −0.35% and Apple AAPL −0.52%. Tesla TSLA jumped 4.23% to $358.22 and SpaceX SPCX 8.62% to $134.27. Neoclouds bounced too: IREN IREN +20.02% to $21.64 after a beat and two new contracts, Nebius NBIS +7.58%, CoreWeave CRWV +6.28% and the Roundhill Neocloud ETF NCLD +9.14%. 4. Quantum names went vertical after IonQ's post-close beat. IonQ IONQ surged 23.42% to $32.62 after Q3 revenue of $173.8M vs $141.2M expected (+336% YoY), an adjusted loss of $0.29 a share, and full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $505–$515M from $450–$460M; SkyWater contributed $83.5M and GAAP EPS was $1.42 thanks to an $896M non-cash warrant gain. Rigetti RGTI rose 19.29% to $11.75 and D-Wave QBTS 18.01% to $10.68 ahead of their own reports next week. 5. Earnings day cut both ways. Moderna MRNA rose 5.27% to $254.19 after Q3 EPS of $0.38 vs a −$1.25 estimate and revenue of $1.31B vs $885.1M, and it hiked 2026 revenue-growth guidance to 15%–25% from up to 10%. Humana HUM gained 5.33% to $433.74 after a narrower adjusted loss of $0.70 a share and raised FY 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $9.50 from at least $9.00. Vistra VST jumped 10.55% to $124.80 after Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $2.378B (+50%+ YoY), raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $7.1–$7.5B, initiated 2027 at $7.7–$8.5B and authorized another $1.5B of buybacks. AppLovin APP added 9.86% to $391.22, extending Thursday's surge. On the downside, DraftKings DKNG crashed 21.30% to $18.51 after Thursday's miss and Predictions-driven guidance cut, Axon AXON sank 18.18% to $313.00 after its miss, Atlassian TEAM fell 16.15% to $153.68, and Charter CHTR dropped 6.19% to $118.07. Airbnb ABNB rose 11.67% to $189.99 and Cloudflare NET 9.91% to $268.75 as Thursday's after-hours beats carried into the cash session. Oklo OKLO jumped 22.66% and TeraWulf WULF 12.80%. 6. The Labor Department delivered a blockbuster October jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 vs a Dow Jones estimate of 59,000 (FactSet had ~65K), unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2% expected, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year vs 0.3%/2.9% estimates. August was revised to 186,000 (+53K) and September to 60,000 (+31K). Gains were broad: professional and business services +70,000, healthcare +42,000, transportation/warehousing +25,000 and manufacturing +19,000. The labor force jumped 421,000 and participation rose to 61.9%, though average unemployment duration hit 27.1 weeks, the highest since September 2021. 7. Fed hike odds snapped higher on the jobs print. CME FedWatch Probabilities now show a 77.1% chance the Fed lifts the target to 4.00%–4.25% on Dec. 9 and only a 22.9% chance it holds at 3.75%–4.00%, reversing Thursday's crash-driven drop in hike odds. January 27 is still centered on 4.00%–4.25% (67.2%), with a 14.2% chance of 4.25%–4.50%. Oxford Economics said it now expects hikes in December and March. 8. Bonds, oil and sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 2 bp to 4.859% on the day but was still down nearly 7 bp on the week. December WTI settled at $90.83 (+$0.31 / +0.34%) and January Brent at $98.32 (+$0.03 / +0.03%), leaving crude down about 13% (WTI) and more than 16% (Brent) on the week amid Middle East ceasefire/diplomacy hopes. The VIX fell 2.54 points (−9.01%) to 25.64 after Thursday's spike to 28.18. CNN Fear & Greed edged up to 22 (Extreme Fear) from 19 (Extreme Fear) at the previous close; it was 26 (Fear) a week ago, 47 (Neutral) a month ago and 24 (Extreme Fear) a year ago. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for November printed 51.0 vs 48.1 expected, with year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 4.3% from 4.7%. 9. Top 10 most active options by total contract volume today: SPY 12.20M, QQQ 8.24M, SPX 5.83M, NVDA 4.36M, TSLA 2.52M, IWM 1.95M, MU 1.52M, SPCX 1.47M, AAPL 1.44M and VIX 1.34M. Just outside the top 10: AMD 1.05M, INTC 1.03M and META 927K. 10. What to watch next: before the open Monday (Nov. 9): Constellation Energy CEG (EPS est. $3.90 on $9.23B), NRG NRG ($3.35 on $8.42B), KKR KKR ($1.58 on $2.66B), Ferguson FERG ($3.31 on $8.74B) and monday.com MNDY. After the close Monday: Rocket Lab RKLB, Take-Two TTWO (EPS est. $0.97 on $1.64B), AST SpaceMobile ASTS, Zeta ZETA, Occidental OXY, Hims HIMS and Marathon Digital MARA. Tuesday brings October CPI at 8:30am ET; U.S. markets are closed Wednesday for Veterans Day; Friday has October PPI. The next FOMC decision is Dec. 8–9, now majority-priced for a hike. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

How many times will we see the biggest up days come in bear markets line today? History backs the quote. Using it to dismiss risk after every bounce is the part that usually fails.

Believing AI is still early does not require sitting through 50% drawdowns. A durable thesis and hard stops can run together. Only price pays, and being right on direction still leaves room to lose money on expression.

Betting that midterms halt the entire AI buildout may join the DeepSeek panic among classic market overreactions. Capex plans rarely flip on election night.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The post-election rally got wiped out in one session as Wall Street dumped the AI trade. The S&P 500 fell 334.89 points (−4.36%) to 7,353.73, its worst day since April 2025, when "Liberation Day" tariffs rocked markets. The Nasdaq Composite crashed 1,421.52 points (−5.52%) to 24,315.00 and closed in correction territory, more than 10% below its Oct. 6 record of 27,599.79 and below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. The Dow Jones lost 1,833.06 points (−3.44%) to 51,523.06, more than erasing Wednesday's 1,569-point gain. The Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.36% to 26,629.81, erasing about $2.3T in market value per NBC, and the Russell 2000 dropped 4.45% to 2,729.89, also entering a correction. SPY fell 4.41% to $733.00, QQQ 6.49% to $647.05 and IWM 4.59% to $270.98. All three major averages posted their worst day since April 2025. 2. Why it happened: investors fear the Democratic sweep of Congress and key governor's races will slow the AI data center build-out. Sen. Bernie Sanders has called for a national data center moratorium, writing on X that "Americans don't want Big Tech oligarchs wrecking the environment, gutting jobs and threatening humanity's future." Meta President Dina Powell McCormick said building new data centers is "going to be harder," and Bloomberg reported Microsoft is tightening oversight of data center projects with neoclouds. OpenAI reaffirmed it will pay the full cost of powering its data centers. Saxo's Neil Wilson called it a "complete capitulation-level event" in tech, and Cantor's Eric Johnston said "there has been a huge change in the outlook for AI infrastructure buildout." 3. Chips had their worst day since COVID. The iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX crashed 12.15%, its worst day since March 2020, and SMH fell 11.21%. Sandisk SNDK plunged 22.26%, Astera Labs ALAB 19.62%, MACOM MTSI 18.35%, Micron MU 17.46% to $656.39, Western Digital WDC 17.35%, AMD AMD 17.26% to $404.40, Marvell MRVL 16.43% and Seagate STX 16.25%. Dell DELL fell 14.89%, Arm ARM 13.08%, TSMC TSM 10.78%, Broadcom AVGO 10.43% and Intel INTC 10.33%. Nvidia NVDA sank 9.26% to $181.60, its worst day since the DeepSeek crash in January 2025, and was down roughly $374B in market value heading into the final hour. The Information reported Nvidia approached Apollo about retrofitting old Brightspeed telecom buildings into a network of small AI data centers spanning as many as 20 states. 4. Mag 7 and the AI power trade got dragged down too. The Mag 7 lost close to $900B in combined value heading into the final hour, per CNBC. Tesla TSLA plunged 10.77% to $343.69 and SpaceX SPCX 9.05% to $123.62. Meta META fell 3.96%, Microsoft MSFT 3.58%, Alphabet GOOGL 2.20%, Amazon AMZN 2.19% and Apple AAPL 1.53%. Oracle ORCL fell 6.93% and Cisco CSCO 7.62%. Neoclouds got crushed again: IREN IREN −16.95%, Nebius NBIS −14.94%, Applied Digital APLD −14.69% and CoreWeave CRWV −9.83%, with the Roundhill Neocloud ETF NCLD down 12.37%. Power names sold off: GE Vernova GEV −7.48%, Vistra VST −6.15% and Constellation CEG −2.47%. 5. The selling spread to everything. All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower. Tech XLK cratered 8.00%, industrials XLI fell 4.12%, consumer discretionary XLY 3.83%, energy XLE 2.98%, materials XLB 2.91%, financials XLF 2.87% and health care XLV 2.50%. The defensives held up best: real estate XLRE −1.82%, staples XLP −0.75%, utilities XLU −0.71% and communication services XLC −0.59%. Caterpillar CAT fell 6.37%, Goldman Sachs GS 6.36% and JPMorgan JPM 4.19%, and Trump Media DJT dropped another 10.47% to $4.02. 6. Earnings movers in the regular session. AppLovin APP bucked the selloff and soared 31.04% to $356.10, its best day in two years, after Q3 EPS of $4.30 (+76% YoY) and revenue of $2.18B (+55%) beat; Wedbush raised its target to $600 from $560. Qualcomm QCOM fell 9.49% to $156.75 after guiding fiscal Q1 EPS of $2.25 at the midpoint vs $2.27 expected. Rockwell Automation ROK plunged 14.15% after Q4 sales of $2.33B missed the $2.41B estimate, hit by an $85M customer tariff-refund accrual. Expedia EXPE fell 13.74%, MercadoLibre MELI 12.05%, Coherent COHR 12.98%, Snap SNAP 14.02%, Zoetis ZTS 7.95% and Ralph Lauren RL 7.35%. Tapestry TPR rose 7.07% after raising its outlook on strong Coach demand, and CVS CVS gained 1.71%. Wendy's WEN rose 3.79% after rejecting a $1.4B, $7.35-a-share takeover offer from a Trian-led group, and Peloton PTON gained 3.66% on a revenue beat. 7. After the bell: Cloudflare NET jumped about 16.6% after hours after Q3 revenue grew 39% to $782.5M vs about $740M expected, EPS of $0.38 beat $0.34, and Q4 revenue guidance of $845M–$846M topped the roughly $798M consensus. Airbnb ABNB rose about 10.5% after EPS of $3.16 vs $2.85 and revenue of $4.87B (+19%, its fastest growth in more than three years) beat, Q4 revenue guidance of $3.22B–$3.28B topped estimates and it authorized a new $12B buyback. JFrog FROG ripped about 28% on a beat. On the downside, DraftKings DKNG sank about 20% after revenue of $1.329B missed $1.398B, it posted an adjusted loss of $0.53 a share and cut 2026 revenue guidance to $6.35B–$6.55B and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $175M–$275M (from $700M–$900M) as it pours money into prediction markets. Atlassian TEAM fell about 17% despite EPS of $1.65 and revenue of $1.77B (+23.8%) beating. Axon AXON dropped about 12% after EPS of $1.72 vs $1.91 and revenue of $908.6M vs $940.0M both missed. Natera NTRA fell about 20%, Affirm AFRM about 10%, Lyft LYFT about 7%, Monster MNST about 5.5% and Microchip MCHP about 4%. 8. The macro. Initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 189,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, below the 197,000 estimate and tied for the lowest since July, with continuing claims up 23,000 to 1.72 million. Q3 nonfarm productivity surged 3.6% vs 2.9% expected, unit labor costs fell 0.7% and the labor share of output dropped to 53%, the lowest in data going back to 1947. Overseas, the Bank of England voted 8–1 to raise rates 25 bps to 4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, with Catherine Mann voting for a 50 bp move. South Korea's Kospi fell 5.28% overnight and Japan's Nikkei 1.79% as Asian chip stocks tumbled. 9. Oil bounced back after Wednesday's crash. December WTI rose $2.40 (+2.72%) to settle at $90.52 and January Brent gained $3.67 (+3.88%) to $98.29, after new attacks on tankers and as traders reassessed the outlook for the Iran war. Trump said it is "largely true" Republicans lost because of the war, and the New York Times reported Iran is reviewing mediators' proposals on its nuclear program. Brent is still down about 18% this week. Heating oil rose 3.48% to $4.3519 and gasoline 1.28% to $2.7634, while natural gas slipped 0.41% to $2.947. 10. Bonds and other assets. Treasuries rallied as investors fled stocks: the 10-year yield fell about 5 bps to 4.839%, the 2-year about 12 bps to 4.464% and the 30-year to 5.257%. The dollar index was flat at 101.60. Gold rose about 0.6% to roughly $4,097 and is up more than 5% this week, while bitcoin fell about 5.4% to roughly $75,750. 11. FedWatch: the crash knocked down December hike odds. CME FedWatch now prices a 68.7% chance the Fed hikes on December 9, down from 81.5% yesterday, and a 31.3% chance it holds at 3.75%–4.00%, with 0.0% odds of a cut. 12. Fear is back. The VIX exploded 11.57 points (+69.66%) to 28.18, its highest level since March. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell to 20 (Extreme Fear) from 27 (Fear) at the previous close. It was 30 (Fear) a week ago, 43 (Fear) a month ago and 23 (Extreme Fear) a year ago. 13. Top 10 most active options by total contract volume today: SPY 19.88M, QQQ 13.92M, SPX 8.32M, NVDA 5.35M, IWM 3.35M, VIX 3.13M, TSLA 2.32M, MU 2.00M, SPCX 1.63M and INTC 1.51M. Just outside the top 10: AAPL 1.48M, IBIT 1.18M and SOXL 1.01M. 14. What to watch tomorrow (Friday, Nov. 6): the October jobs report at 8:30am ET, with nonfarm payrolls expected at 59K per the Dow Jones consensus (65K per FactSet) vs 29K in September, unemployment seen steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings seen up 0.3%. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment follows at 10:00am ET (est. about 48). Before the open: Moderna MRNA (EPS est. −$1.10 on $890.3M revenue), Humana HUM (−$1.00 on $40.87B), Vistra VST ($2.98 on $6.03B), Charter CHTR ($8.94 on $13.50B) and Franklin Resources BEN ($0.77 on $1.86B). PPL PPL ($0.53 on $2.41B) also reports, timing unconfirmed, along with Oklo OKLO, TeraWulf WULF, Fluor FLR, Elanco ELAN and Under Armour UA. DraftKings hosts its earnings call at 8:30am ET. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Risk management reminder: if stop losses are not part of your process, today is a good reason to start. Protecting capital is not weakness, and the people mocking it are rarely the ones covering your drawdowns.

Which party controls Congress is not what decides the next big market move. Inflation, rates, earnings, Iran, and sentiment do. Emotional whiplash can keep running short term. Over the longer run, markets do what markets do regardless of who sits in office.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Wall Street ripped after Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the midterms. The Dow Jones jumped 1,569.40 points (+3.03%) to 53,356.12, its best day since April 9, 2025 and its first close above 53,000 since Sept. 8. It was the Dow's 5th-largest one-day point gain ever, per Investopedia. The S&P 500 rose 119.70 points (+1.58%) to 7,688.62, its best day in three months per AP, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 364.50 points (+1.44%) to 25,736.51. The Nasdaq 100 added 0.91% to 28,437.17 and the Russell 2000 rose 1.58% to 2,856.95. SPY rose 1.65% to $766.81, QQQ 0.97% to $691.95 and IWM 1.51% to $284.02. Markets cheered President Trump saying he was "absolutely willing" to accept the results and would work with Democrats, and strategists pointed to gridlock as historically good for stocks. 2. Everything except AI and energy rallied. Consumer discretionary XLY led with a 4.26% gain, followed by financials XLF +3.51%, communication services XLC +3.47% (best day since April 2025), staples XLP +3.36% (record high), real estate XLRE +3.32% and health care XLV +3.06%. Energy XLE sank 4.74%, industrials XLI fell 1.09% and tech XLK finished flat (−0.01%). JPMorgan JPM rose 4.18%, Bank of America BAC 3.97%, Goldman GS 3.56% and Walmart WMT 3.45%. 3. Big Tech led the Dow as investors rotated away from the AI build-out. Microsoft MSFT soared 6.68% to $555.80, Amazon AMZN 6.12% to $266.03 and Apple AAPL 5.31% to $349.51 after hitting an all-time high of $354.33 intraday, pushing its market cap above $5.12T. CNBC noted Apple is seen as a winner if data center construction slows and memory chip prices ease. Alphabet GOOGL added 3.18% and Meta META 1.44%. 3M MMM paced the Dow with a 9.55% jump, and McDonald's MCD rose 6.53% after adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat the $3.38 estimate, even as revenue of $7.16B missed $7.29B and U.S. same-store sales fell 0.2%, its first decline in six quarters (but better than the −0.5% expected). 4. The AI trade got hit on data center fears. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the Texas governor's race after pledging an immediate data center moratorium, and Texas holds about 27% of U.S. data center gigawatts per Wells Fargo. Micron MU fell 7.00% to $795.23, Nvidia NVDA 3.17% to $200.13, Intel INTC 3.77%, Broadcom AVGO 2.00% and Oracle ORCL 1.95%. Neoclouds got crushed: CoreWeave CRWV −9.90%, IREN IREN −11.24% and Nebius NBIS −6.67%, and the Roundhill Neocloud ETF NCLD fell 9.10%. CoreWeave's 5-year credit default swaps widened to 1,139.7. SOXX fell 3.14% and SMH 2.75%. 5. Musk and Trump names sank. Tesla TSLA fell 3.34% to $385.19 and SpaceX SPCX 3.81% to $135.92, with both Texas-headquartered. Trump Media DJT plunged 24.54% to $4.49. Defense stocks slid as well: Lockheed Martin LMT −6.88% and Northrop NOC −4.53%. 6. Health care, renewables, airlines and consumer names were the big winners. Centene CNC jumped 12.64%, HCA HCA 10.34% and Molina MOH 8.93%. Dollar Tree DLTR rose 9.64%, Dollar General DG 8.52% and Estée Lauder EL 6.31%. First Solar FSLR gained 4.63% and the solar ETF TAN 5.65%. Airlines flew on falling oil: United UAL +7.98% and Delta DAL +7.16%. Grainger GWW rose 6.54% after earnings and McKesson MCK gained 6.98%, and Helen of Troy HELE soared 25.39% after rejecting Empower Brands' $37-a-share takeover proposal. 7. The losers. FIS FIS crashed 23.65% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS growth forecast to 1.2%–2.4% from 7.0%–8.5%. Datadog DDOG plunged 14.42% despite beating with EPS of $0.81 vs $0.64 and revenue of $1.20B (+35%), as Q4 guidance of $1.19B–$1.20B implied flat sequential growth after its largest customer, an AI company, cut usage. CVS CVS fell 12.53% to $79.96 despite EPS of $2.09 vs $1.65 on $108.4B in revenue and a raised 2026 outlook of at least $8.20, as it announced plans to split into two public companies (CVS Health and CVS Pharmacy) by 1H 2028. Amdocs DOX fell 30% on a weak fiscal 2027 outlook. Exxon XOM fell 4.62% and Chevron CVX 3.69%. 8. After the bell: AppLovin APP ripped about 23% after hours, after already gaining 10.69% in the regular session, as Q3 revenue grew 55% to $2.185B with diluted EPS of $4.30 vs about $4.04 expected, and Q4 revenue guidance of $2.365B–$2.395B beat. Qualcomm QCOM fell about 6.5% after hours despite EPS of $2.17 vs $2.16 and revenue of $10.32B vs $10.11B, as it guided Q4 EPS of $2.15–$2.35 vs $2.27 expected, with handset chip sales down 26% on memory-cost pressure. It still expects $5B in data center revenue in fiscal 2027. MercadoLibre MELI fell about 7% after EPS of $8.83 missed $9.34, though revenue rose 45% to $10.75B. Arm ARM slipped about 3.8% after EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $1.44B beat. Expedia EXPE (−7.6%) and Snap SNAP (−9%) fell, while Coherent COHR rose about 8.7% after EPS of $2.09 and revenue of $2.37B beat. 9. The macro. October ADP private payrolls rose 86K vs the 75K Dow Jones estimate, matching September's downwardly revised 86K. The October ISM Services PMI slipped to 54.5 from 54.9 vs 54.8 expected, with the prices index at 73.0 and employment at 51.4, its highest since February. 10. Oil crashed after VP JD Vance blamed the Iran war for the GOP's losses, writing "The reason we lost is the war." December WTI fell 8.3% to settle at $88.12 and Brent lost 8.7% to $94.62. Oil is down more than 14% this week as markets bet the election raises pressure for a deal with Iran. Gasoline futures fell about 7% to $2.729 and heating oil about 6.9% to $4.216. Per AAA, the national average for gas is $4.12 a gallon. 11. Bonds and other assets. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 bps to 4.888%, the 2-year to 4.581% and the 30-year to 5.277%. The dollar index fell 0.33% to 101.53. Gold jumped 3.33% to $4,071.80 and bitcoin rose about 3% to roughly $80,120 after briefly falling to about $75,000 overnight. 12. FedWatch still leans toward a December hike, and sentiment came off the floor. CME FedWatch puts an 81.5% chance on a hike to 4.00%–4.25% on December 9, up from 78.9% yesterday, and an 18.5% chance the Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%. For the January 27 meeting, it prices 67.1% for 4.00%–4.25%, 18.7% for 4.25%–4.50% and 14.2% for no change; by March 17, 4.25%–4.50% is the most likely outcome at 46.0%. The VIX collapsed 4.22 points (−20.26%) to 16.61. The CNN Fear & Greed Index rose to 27 (Fear) from 19 (Extreme Fear) at the previous close. It was 34 (Fear) a week ago, 38 (Fear) a month ago and 20 (Extreme Fear) a year ago. 13. Top 10 most active options by total contract volume today: SPY 13.17M, QQQ 9.64M, SPX 6.27M, NVDA 3.16M, TSLA 2.59M, IWM 2.22M, AAPL 2.22M, AMZN 1.59M, VIX 1.59M and MU 1.56M. Just outside the top 10: SpaceX SPCX 1.23M, INTC 1.11M and AMD 1.01M. 14. What to watch tomorrow (Thursday, Nov. 5): weekly jobless claims at 8:30am ET (est. about 196K–197K, prior 194K), and the Bank of England decision at 12:00pm UK time, with a 25 bp hike to 4.00% widely expected. Before the open: ConocoPhillips COP (EPS est. $3.05 on $18.59B revenue), Southern SO ($1.71), Duke DUK ($1.86), Cigna CI ($7.52 on $72.64B), Air Products APD ($3.61), Cummins CMI ($8.21), Cardinal Health CAH ($2.95), Becton Dickinson BDX ($4.07), Rockwell ROK ($3.69), Zoetis ZTS ($1.51), Ralph Lauren RL ($4.26) and Tapestry TPR ($1.57). After the close: Airbnb ABNB ($2.85 on $4.75B), EOG EOG ($4.47), Simon Property SPG ($1.69), Devon DVN ($1.33), Microchip MCHP ($0.94), Live Nation LYV ($1.51), Axon AXON ($1.89) and Wynn WYNN ($0.53), with Cloudflare NET, Monster MNST, Atlassian TEAM, Affirm AFRM and DraftKings DKNG also reporting. Friday brings the October jobs report at 8:30am ET (nonfarm payrolls est. 65K, prior 29K; unemployment est. 4.2%) and preliminary UMich sentiment at 10:00am ET (est. 48.1). WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$AMZN If new datacenters get harder to build, the operators that already own capacity gain pricing power. Existing compute becomes scarcer and more valuable. Classic supply and demand. Names sitting on live capacity: $MSFT $GOOGL META ORCL. Incumbency may be the real AI moat.

When a market rallies on news that looks bad, pay attention. Tops tend to form on the best headlines and bottoms on the worst. Price rarely waits for the news flow to turn bullish or for everyone to get positioned long. Worth keeping in mind over the coming days and weeks.

Sentiment check: a few more rounds of "AI and data centers are dead" takes and the case for a washed out, contrarian setup starts to get real. Peak pessimism tends to show up right before the trade finds its footing again.

Tonight's results send a clear signal. Voters are tired of war, elevated gas prices, high mortgage rates, rising food costs, and increasingly AI. Markets should take note: affordability and AI anxiety are now political forces, not just economic data points.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Chips bounced on Election Day and the S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 27.52 points (+0.36%) to 7,568.92 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.65 points (+0.83%) to 25,372.01, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.68% to 28,180.26, still in correction territory about 10% below its high. The Dow fell 197.26 points (−0.38%) to 51,786.72, dragged by Apple, and the Russell 2000 edged up 0.23% to 2,812.45. SPY rose 0.30% to $754.35, QQQ 0.62% to $685.28 and IWM 0.23% to $279.79. The rally was narrow: per AP, most stocks in the S&P 500 fell. Tech XLK led with a 1.31% gain and communication services XLC added 1.18%, while staples XLP fell 2.07%, materials XLB 2.01% and energy XLE 0.85%. 2. The AI trade caught a bid after its recent beating. Broadcom AVGO rose 3.07% to $332.13, Nvidia NVDA 2.29% to $206.69, Micron MU 2.58% to $855.10, SanDisk SNDK 4.78%, Dell DELL 3.98%, Vertiv VRT 5.23%, GE Vernova GEV 6.49% and Monolithic Power MPWR 6.78%. Oracle ORCL bounced 5.85% to $126.19 a day after its $20B stock-and-bond plan, and CoreWeave CRWV jumped 7.16% even as Starwood's Barry Sternlicht told CNBC some neoclouds "will fail." Microsoft MSFT gained 2.74% to $520.99, Meta META 2.36% to $621.03 and Amazon AMZN 2.06% to $250.69. SOXX rose 2.50% and SMH 2.01%. 3. Apple AAPL fell 1.90% to $331.90, weighing on the Dow, after guiding December-quarter gross margin to 45%–46%, below the 46.3% Wall Street wanted, as memory-chip costs rise, and after iPad sales missed. That overshadowed a record September quarter of $114.48B in revenue and $2.10 in EPS. Palantir PLTR slipped another 1.65% to $175.40 despite its blowout quarter, and Tesla TSLA lost 1.32% to $398.50. 4. AMD AMD crushed it after the bell. Q3 revenue rose 45% to $13.38B vs $13.09B expected, and adjusted EPS was $2.09 vs $1.95 (LSEG). Data center revenue nearly doubled (+97%) to about $8.5B and now makes up 64% of sales, while the client and gaming segment fell 8% to $3.7B. AMD guided Q4 revenue to about $17B (±3%), or roughly 66% growth, vs $16.2B expected, with gross margin of about 55% vs 55.3% expected. The stock rose 3.65% to $483.90 in the regular session and was up about 8.7% after hours. 5. More after-hours movers. Arista ANET posted Q3 revenue of $3.66B (+58.5%, its fastest growth since its IPO) vs $3.33B expected and EPS of $1.20 vs $1.08, then guided Q4 to $3.9B–$4.0B and EPS of $1.26–$1.30 vs $3.6B and $1.15 expected. Shares were up about 13% after hours. Block XYZ jumped about 8% after adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat $1.03 on $6.72B in revenue and it raised full-year EPS guidance to $4.15. Super Micro SMCI climbed about 8% after a beat and guidance raise. Booking BKNG fell about 1.5% as revenue of $8.9B missed $9.54B (including a $900M FTC-related reduction) and Q4 guidance pointed to slower growth, despite EPS of $4.66 vs $4.49. Amgen AMGN slipped about 1.7% despite EPS of $6.45 vs $5.76 and revenue of $10.4B vs $10.06B, as biosimilars hit Prolia (−45%) and XGEVA (−47%). 6. The winners. Fiserv FISV ripped 12.46% to $58.40, the best performer in the S&P 500, after adjusted EPS of $1.75 beat estimates. DuPont DD rose 8.61% after raising its 2026 outlook, Revvity RVTY 7.84% after raising full-year EPS guidance to $5.40–$5.45, and Eaton ETN 7.00% after record orders, a 46% jump in its Electrical backlog, EPS of $3.68 vs $3.54 and a raised full-year outlook of $13.70–$13.80. Bloom Energy BE gained 9.05% on a Barclays upgrade, AppLovin APP 7.28% ahead of earnings tomorrow and Coinbase COIN 5.53%. Outside the S&P 500, Fabrinet FN soared 15.45% on a beat and strong guidance. 7. The losers. Gartner IT plunged 13.19%, the worst performer in the S&P 500, as slow contract-value growth fed fears of disruption from cheaper AI. Thomson Reuters TRI fell 9.87% despite 10% revenue growth to $1.83B and a raised organic growth outlook of 8.5%–9.0%, as AI spending pressured margins. Sysco SYY dropped 9.33%, Zebra ZBRA 8.76% on a weak Q4 outlook despite a Q3 beat, Shopify SHOP 8.74% after missing on GMV and subscription gross profit, Ball BALL 7.14%, ADM ADM 6.82%, Leidos LDOS 6.55% and Keurig Dr Pepper KDP 5.65%. Dynatrace DT sank 14.69% on a disappointing profit outlook. Homebuilders slid as yields rose: Lennar LEN −5.42% and D.R. Horton DHI −5.03%. 8. The macro. September JOLTS job openings jumped 333K to 7.52M, well above the roughly 7.15M consensus, with quits up to 3.36M, the highest since March 2025, and layoffs down to 1.64M. September factory orders rose 1.8% vs 1.2%–1.3% expected, led by a 28.3% jump in civilian aircraft orders. Overseas, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked 25 bps to 4.85%, its highest since November 2008. 9. Bonds and other assets. Treasury yields rose on a day of strong labor data: the 10-year added about 5.8 bps to 4.951%, its biggest gain since Sept. 28, the 2-year rose to 4.612% and the 30-year to 5.323%. The dollar index rose 0.12% to about 101.87. Gold fell 0.80% to $3,937.70 and silver 2.12% to $49.81. Bitcoin rose 1.44% to about $77,889 and ether 2.11% to about $2,294. 10. Oil steadied after Monday's crash. December WTI settled down 0.38% at $96.09 and Brent lost 1.12% to $103.60. Crude fell below $95 early on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, then recovered most of the drop after reports the US military struck Iran's Qeshm Island, an attack one official described as small-scale and defensive. Exxon Mobil XOM fell 1.23% to $177.46 and Chevron CVX 1.10% to $225.27, while airlines gave back some of Monday's gains, with United UAL −1.86%. 11. Midterm Election Day. Voters are deciding control of the House and Senate starting in January, and per CNBC, prediction markets put the chance of Democrats taking the Senate near 75%. JPMorgan says a Democratic sweep could weigh on stocks tomorrow, especially AI names on fears of data-center restrictions, while Republicans holding the Senate or both chambers could spark a short-term relief rally. Defense names were mixed: Northrop NOC −0.90%, Lockheed LMT −0.65% and RTX RTX +0.51%. 12. FedWatch leans hard toward a December hike, and fear is deepening. CME FedWatch puts a 78.9% chance on a hike to 4.00%–4.25% on December 9 and a 21.1% chance the Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%. For the January 27 meeting, it prices 63.0% for 4.00%–4.25%, 21.8% for 4.25%–4.50% and 15.3% for no change from today's 3.75%–4.00%; by March 17, 4.25%–4.50% is the most likely outcome at 46.5%. Sentiment: The VIX eased 0.32 points (−1.51%) to 20.83. The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell to 19 (Extreme Fear) from 22 at the previous close. It was 32 (Fear) a week ago, 38 (Fear) a month ago and 32 (Fear) a year ago. 13. Top 10 most active options by total contract volume today: SPY 10.11M, QQQ 7.43M, SPX 4.86M, IWM 1.61M, NVDA 1.59M, AAPL 1.58M, VIX 939K, TSLA 906K, INTC 853K and PLTR 734K. Just outside the top 10: SpaceX SPCX 723K, MU 665K and AMD 585K. 14. What to watch tomorrow (Wednesday, Nov. 4): midterm results. On the data side: October ADP employment at 8:15am ET (consensus 69K, prior 90K), the September trade balance (est. −$108B) and Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30am ET, October ISM Services PMI at 10:00am ET (consensus 54.8, prior 54.9; prices paid est. 75) and EIA crude inventories at 10:30am ET. Before the open: McDonald's MCD (EPS est. $3.38 on $7.28B revenue), Uber UBER ($0.86 on $14.66B), CVS CVS ($1.65 on $104.72B), Datadog DDOG ($0.64 on $1.15B), Cencora COR ($4.58), Emerson EMR ($1.85), Grainger GWW ($11.68), Kraft Heinz KHC ($0.42) and Circle CRCL ($0.38). After the close: Qualcomm QCOM ($2.16 on $10.12B), Arm ARM ($0.47 on $1.38B), AppLovin APP ($4.03 on $2.08B), MercadoLibre MELI ($9.27 on $10.69B), McKesson MCK ($10.72), Coherent COHR ($1.99 on $2.31B), Expedia EXPE ($8.85), Motorola Solutions MSI ($4.42), MetLife MET, Allstate ALL and Snap SNAP. Later this week: jobless claims Thursday and the October jobs report Friday. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Last week's earnings reactions had traders convinced the run was over. This week's prints may have them believing it is back on. That whiplash is the defining feature of this tape: sentiment flips on every report, and conviction is lasting days, not quarters.

The Nasdaq fell 30% in 1998, then rallied nearly 300% into its early 2000 peak. No one knows what comes next, but the strongest 18 month run in market history was born out of volatility, uncertainty and fear. Is today's drawdown a setup or a warning?

Next time someone points out the S&P 500 is only down 4%, show them this. Morgan Stanley's US TMT momentum factor sits about 62% below its 12 month high, a deeper drawdown than the dot com bust. The index is masking real damage underneath.