I read a lot of stock takes on here. Confident ones. And I realized I had no idea which kinds actually hold up. So I'm going to start checking. Every week: the calls making the rounds, timestamped and compared to what the stock did next. Here's how it works 🧵

If your stock can be wrecked by a tweet you might want to consider investing in something else (unless that tweet came from POTUS and the rest of the market got wrecked too). $IREN $CRWV $NBIS

SI just saved my marriage! lol. Not really, but my little Muse buddy just nabbed me one helluva birthday present for my wife without me hitting Amazon once. @Musecases bullish $META

$IREN thesis check: graded. Verdict: D FinTwit circled $25 as the bounce floor. It wicked to $24.86 and closed $24.91. Level right, bounce missing. 👇 Also, Musk’s comments haven’t pulled them out of the gutter - buying a neocloud would be pointless - tell us more Elon 🍿

Why does everyone feel like some random X post is gonna pump their bags? $IREN holders accosting Musk is just wild especially after their Anthropic rumors. Yall seem to have lost the plot.

$APO short, Oct 26–30 (grade A) Sell stop 109.85 Stop 115.00 (4.7%) T1 99.60 (March low) T2 94.40 (3R) Chart 👇 Private credit lags. Below falling 50/200-day (~124), lower highs 5 wks, Thu bounce to 114.86 failed. 42% to trigger; above 115 first → cancel. Earnings early Nov

$CAH long, open slot, week 2 ❌ likely Filled 258.40 Wed over the Aug high, Fri close 249.57: −1.0R Stop 249.20, just 0.37 below Chart 👇 Second failed push through 258.30. 249.20 is the exit: no averaging down, no moving the stop. Odds say it's stopped Monday.

$TRV long, Oct 26–30 (grade A) Buy stop 408.00 Stop 394.00 (3.4%) T1 436.00 (2R) T2 450.00 (3R) Chart 👇 Insurers lead. ATH Thu (407.87), 5-day run off the 21-EMA, Fri dip held Wed's low. 31% to trigger first. Under 394 first → cancel. No earnings.

$DIS long, Oct 26–30 (grade B) Buy stop 113.45 Stop 110.05 (3.0%) T1 120.25 (2R) T2 123.65 (3R) Chart 👇 Higher lows all Oct, Thu close at a 3-mo high. Best odds on the list: 73% to trigger first. B because the 117.09 high (~1.1R) is overhead: expect a stall, take partials.

$DAL short, Oct 26–30 (grade B) Sell stop 74.05 Stop 77.60 (4.8%) T1 66.95 (2R) T2 63.40 (3R) Chart 👇 Airlines breaking down: below a falling 50-day, sitting on the 200-day (76.45), weekly lows 82 → 75. Odds: just 23% to trigger first. Likely cancels unless it breaks Monday.

$PFE long, open slot, week 2 Filled 29.92 Tue on a 52-wk high breakout, Fri close 30.03: +0.1R Stop 29.20 (original) T1 31.36 (~14% this week) Chart 👇 Held the breakout all week (low 29.59). ~33% a normal week tags the stop. Earnings Tue Nov 3 pre-mkt: out by Mon close.

$BRK.B long, open slot, week 2 Filled 537.80 Tue over the Aug ATH, ran to 549.96, Fri close 542.19: +0.3R Stop 524.90 (original) T1 563.60 (multi-week) Chart 👇 Low-vol name, normal week ±1.5%: ~4% odds of a stop tag. Earnings ~Nov 2: out by Fri close or breakeven stop.

$AVGO short, open slot, week 2 Filled 326.53 Thu on a gap below the trigger, Fri close 321.68: +0.3R Stop 345.00 (original, 7% above) T1 ~299 (March lows) Chart 👇 Semis weakest group again (−2.3%). At +0.5R (~317) stop → breakeven. No earnings till Dec.

Interesting take from @theallinpod that puts me back on the bullish side of data centers - quoted case of a company building their own for data sovereignty and using open weight models. How does this all play out?

Went back through @RealJimChanos on RiskReversal. His point that hyperscaler returns on incremental capital peaked in 2024 and could dip below WACC by mid-'27 is the one my bull case never priced in. Uncomfortable listen.

$EOG long, open slot, week 2 Filled 158.45, Fri close 163.03: +0.7R Stop → breakeven 158.45 T1 172.15 (~9% away, likely multi-week) Chart 👇 Stop is only 2.8% below: ~37% a normal week tags it. Moves with $CVX; once CVX exits Thu, EOG is the book's only oil.

$CVX long, open slot, week 2 Filled 225.40, closed Fri 233.21: +1.0R Stop → breakeven 225.40 T1 240.40: take half, trail the rest Chart 👇 Can't lose from here unless it gaps. Chops 226–240 → hold. ~28% to tag T1. Earnings Fri Oct 30 pre-mkt, so out by Thu close.