@TidefallCapital

No politics, sports or social tweets. Just investing. Tweets are not investment advice.

 Toronto
tidefall.substack.com
Joined March 2011
  • Tweets27.8K
  • Following1.2K
  • Followers40.5K
3KMedia
Q3 2021 Letter $FFH.to tidefall.substack.com/p/q3-2…
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$NFLX down to 17x 2027 PE as short form video and youtube take time share.
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"S&P Global estimates the world's biggest tech firms have more AI-linked liabilities than currently known, although its top analyst sees ​no need to change any ratings at present."
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$APP Past 5 year insider transactions: Sales: $15,825,097,564 Buys: $0
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This market is an AI accounting shell game. "For Q4 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth of 28.6%. For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 32.8%" - FactSet
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$NVDA will just step in with some new capital to $CRWV. Not a good look having this bleed out..
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Trevor Scott retweeted
Ben Watsa
@benwatsaOct 15
A landmark moment for Fairfax in India! 🇮🇳 Selected as strategic buyer for a 60.72% stake in IDBI Bank ($5.6B), with plans to combine banking, Digit Insurance and IIFL Capital to build a world-class financial institution. fairfax.ca/press-releases/fa…

Fairfax Declared “Strategic Buyer” in Auction to Acquire Interest in IDBI Bank; Plans to Contribute...

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“FFHL”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) and Fairfax India Holdings Corporation (“FIH”, and together with FFHL, collectively, “Fairfax”) (TSX: FIH.U) jointly announce today...

fairfax.ca
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Canada will be on the economist cover in the next few months I bet.
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xitter.cf/TheEconomist/status/21…
The Economist
@TheEconomistOct 15
Smaller countries need to prepare for a dangerous world. They should look to Canada (and its prime minister) for an answer on what to do bit.ly/4zwKfVg Illustration: The Economist/Getty Images
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Trevor Scott retweeted
zerohedge
@zerohedgeOct 14
*OPENAI COMPUTING CHIEF TO DEPART: WSJ
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Love $BRK and this is a tiny deal but Bending Spoons is your first official post-Buffett 🚩
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BENDING SPOONS OVER $CSU ??
Negligible Capital
@negligible_capOct 14
*BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INVESTS ADDITIONAL $330M IN BENDING SPOONS Today I learned $BRK.B had a stake in $BSP (now 4%)
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This is the ghost of Todd
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IDBI rumoured for a long time. Expect a lot of exclamation marks in the AR!!! I wouldn't be surprised if BIAL IPO starts moving forward now too at $FIH.U Incredible the deal making occurring at $FFH.TO w Boots in the UK. RBC has this at 6.3x 2027 PE & 1.0x PB..
Brown@BrownMarubozuOct 14
$FFH.TO $FIH.U IDBI purchase approved by government but structure isn’t clear from Fairfax side. It’s a big deal and should be very accretive but how the market reacts short term is an open question.
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Trevor Scott retweeted
Roger
@rdd147Oct 13
I’m not saying that $CRWV is struggling to pay interest, but the stock suddenly sold off 4% before market open and bond yields exploded 150 bp to above 15.1% Something with creditors had to cause that.
Roger
@rdd147Oct 13
$CRWV bonds blow up to 15.1% in a day as company faces existential bankruptcy risks.
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"A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in. They set very extreme expectations only to find out that it's almost like they are in a casino." - Hock Tan $AVGO qz.com/broadcom-ceo-hock-tan…

Broadcom CEO Hock Tan calls AI investors casino gamblers

Hock Tan said many investors have little understanding of what they're betting on, and questioned whether businesses are wasting money on AI

qz.com
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"S&P 500 Earnings Expected to Rise 31% in Q3 as AI-Related Companies Lead Growth" Accrual accounting is a hell of a drug.
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Burry getting buried $NVDA
Kakashii
@kakashiii111Oct 5
Q2 2026 marked a turning point for Nvidia and for its "bank." For the first time since 2021, Nvidia had to raise debt: $25 billion of senior notes, in what looks like a move to keep the circular financing going and protect its own balance sheet. For the first time, Nvidia shows that it intends to use its investment grade credit to borrow in order to sustain the machine that can't fail, in what looks like the biggest self-financed demand ever seen in history. What does it mean? What did it look like in Q2? What does it mean for the future? All in Nvidia Series, Part 2, which is due very soon.
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Eisman is long $NVDA by the way
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"Top Chinese models processed 76 trillion tokens on the platform in the week ended Sept. 27, up from 4.4 trillion in late April and well ahead of 14.2 trillion for leading US models."
Bloomberg
@businessOct 10
The most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom will be massive capital destruction in the US, with market share going to cheaper open-source Chinese models, according to Jefferies. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Jefferies’ Chris Wood Sees ‘Massive Capital Destruction’ in AI

The most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom will be massive capital destruction in the US, with market share going to cheaper open-source Chinese models, according to Jefferies Financial Group...

bloomberg.com
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Software working again? $IGV
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"An AI model may reproduce a feature long before it can reproduce all the exceptions that make that feature work inside a customer's actual business. AI may make it cheaper to build a competing product, but it certainly doesn't make it cheaper to earn a customer's trust." $CSU
Crossroads Capital
@CrossroadsOnXOct 8
Who wins in software? We think the answer is unclear and the timeline uncertain. But the indiscriminate sell-off pushed one name to prices that were simply too attractive to ignore. Our latest write-up. (We are long $CSU.TO ) crossroadscap.io/insights/co…
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lots of gems here: As Twitch co-founder Justin Kan put it, “First-time founders are obsessed with product. Second-time founders are obsessed with distribution.” Those who have direct dialogue with the end user tend to keep winning, particularly in the narrow verticals CSU serves.
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