Detroit Tigers Prospects - Analytics - Data - Forecast Modeling - Rankings Contributor @tigersMLreport Data Science & Statistics Masters
Joined September 2026
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If anyone is interested, or wants to keep tabs with what I'm doing on this project (I also want a record for my mental sake), this thread will have all the updates and information
Any questions, please let me know and I'd love to answer!
Currently working on a machine learning MLB probability model, essentially to help project MLB opportunity and/or success w/ other factors
Fine tuning it and good bit of a ways to go, but initially it has #Tigers C Manuel Bolivar as a 92% chance & 67% chance at 1x All-Star
Awesome to see from Hope/Berrier/Long, don't really put a ton of weight into the AFL numbers and production
Bryce Rainer does scare me a bit if I'm the #Tigers, same with Peck. Rainer is making a ton of adjustments and swing changes so more focused on early 2027
AFL Numbers Update:
OF Zyhir Hope: 16 games, .241/.405/.293, HR, 11 RBIs, 8 R, 14 BB, 18 SO
IF Bryce Rainer: 8 games, .148/.200/.222, 3 RBIs, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 BB, 11 SO
IF John Peck: 17 games, .167/.215/.264, 13 RBIs, 7 R, HR, 4 2B, 5 BB, 24 SO
RHP Logan Berrier: 5 games, 1 start, 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 11 SO
RHP Jalen Evans: 5 games, 3.60 ERA, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 SO
RHP Preston Howey: 5 games, 1-0, 3.38 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 BB, 6 SO
RHP Maddox Long: 5 games, 1 start, 1-0, 1.98 ERA, 13.2 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 12 SO
LHP Win Scott: 1 start, 1-1, 8.71 ERA, 10.1 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 6 SO
Path to Tigers Analytics retweeted
Detroit Tigers catching prospect Michael Oliveto recently did an interview with @velouniversity on his offseason development plan
New #Tigers 1B Coach Kyle Hudson has a pretty strong track record for developing high end defensive OF & baserunning teams
Charting efficiency w/ CLE (20-22) & BOS (23-25) both during/post his time & the Tigers numbers in both phases. Expect DET to be more base aggressive in 27
Lastly, Extra Bases Taken. As noted, #Tigers are pretty much well above what he's already been at but he's consistently taken the extra base
Really like this for the #Tigers, Hudson was mainly the Red Sox OF development coach where Wilyer Abreu/Rafaella/Duran have turned into the best OF trio
He's also been responsible for the Red Sox baserunning. His firing by Boston upset the OF pretty extensively per local report
Red Sox Baseunning in 2024-2025:
2024: 144 SB (7th), 77% SB (18th), 44% Extra Base (9th), 6 BaseRunning Run (9th)
2025: 139 SB (6th), 79% SB (9th), 44% Extra Base (5th), 8 BaseRunning Run (6th)
2026: 107 SB (13th), 73% SB (24th), 41% Extra Base (13th), -4 BaseRunning Run (24th)
Red Sox OF Defensive Metrics in 2024 - 2026:
2024: 16 OAA (5th), +2% success, 48 DRS (2nd), 20 FRV (T2nd)
2025: 30 OAA (1st), +2% success (1st), 52 DRS (3rd), 35 FRV (1st)
2026: 20 OAA (4th), +2% success (T-2nd), 59 DRS (1st), 24 FRV (3rd)
Excited Petit is back with the #Tigers
6'8/290 RHP reliever, thought DET should have protected last off-season but didn't. Prior to TJ generated a 34.4% K rate, 32.4% whiff, 32% chase, 10% BB, .254 xWOBA, and 23.4% hard hit rate. Inconsistent command but electric swing/miss
If you’re interested in trying to help #Tigers C Dillon Dingler earn the platinum glove you can vote below!
rawlings.com/gold-glove-plat…
Path to Tigers Analytics retweeted
KEVINNNNN
Your 2026 @officialBBWAA AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award finalists:
Kevin McGonigle, Tigers
Parker Messick, Guardians
Payton Tolle, Red Sox
ALT 2026 AL Rookie of the Year Finalists Left: Kevin McGonigle poses for photo day in a white Tigers uniform and navy cap. Middle: Parker Messick poses for photo day in a white Guardians uniform and navy & red cap. Right: Payton Tolle poses for photo day in a white Red Sox uniform and navy cap.
Path to Tigers Analytics retweeted
Personally just Waguespack makes sense to be back for the #Tigers but it'll need to be financially right
2.49 ERA in 47 IP w/ a 0.91 WHIP but a 4.55 FIP. Had a .157/.250/.289 line against. Swing & miss isn't his game, but he limits hard contact & contact. Sub 5M AAV
#Tigers have 5 days to exclusively negotiate with their pending FA:
- RHP Jack Flaherty
- RHP Tyler Kinley
- LHP Burch Smith
- 2B Gleyber Torres
- RHP Jacob Waguespack
Figure some of the 60 Day IL Activations will be non-tendered later this offseason for the #Tigers
Very bottom roster moves today.
Love Waguespack back for the #Tigers on a really low cost deal, nice low to mid leverage arm
Path to Tigers Analytics retweeted
Sources: Emilio Pagán declined the Cincinnati Reds’ $10 million option for the 2027 season and will become a free agent, with a strong chance of landing a multi-year contract.
Pagán had a notable second half of the season, going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 29 SO in 26.1 IP and 18 SV.
Path to Tigers Analytics retweeted
All TMLR 2026 Team: Who made the cut and why? youtu.be/Jf9if7WUBI4?is=JbxH…
