Tilt Macro ™

What this account is. Tilt Macro is quantitative signals and macro synthesis. The models don't forecast prices. They ask whether the environment is willing to pay you to hold a risk, and how much. It reads markets at three depths: Dawn Patrol, every morning: the read from the last close. The regime markets are pricing, the major indexes, rates, the dollar, commodities, dealer levels and the calls that changed. Currents & Crosswinds: the 1–3 month view. Allocator, CIO and credit-desk thinking, triangulated for where it converges and where it contradicts. The Deepwater Chronicles: the financing loops, capex strain and balance-sheet limits that define the next regime. tiltmacro.com: quantitative calls on every major market, every close. Judge it by the output. Take no orders from the shore.

The 2-year yield just jumped 17bp, back to 4.74%. Our trend call on it never left. It's been a rising-yield trend for 170 sessions. Over the past three weeks the 2-year slid from 4.93% to 4.47%, and the bond rally looked a lot like a turn. It never got close to 4.10%, the level that would have ended the trend. Today the market priced it back: core CPI at 0.3% for a third straight month, a December hike at 99%. What the system didn't do was sit out the bounce. Long-dated Treasuries turned long last week on short-term strength, and that's the call under pressure today. The 10-year auction is at 10 a.m. Pacific. A sloppy one, with the front end already up this much, would be rough for duration.

Core CPI rose 0.3% for a third straight month. With a December hike already priced at 99%, that was enough to knock bonds lower on the print. DAWN PATROL | November 10, 2026 Headline rose 0.4%, and shelter was about a third of it. Food picked up to 0.5%, beef up 0.9%. Energy cooled to 0.7% after September's 5.2% jump, and used cars fell 1.2%. The sticky part is services. Transportation services rose 0.8%, car insurance 0.7%, hospitals 0.8%. Three straight months of 0.3% on core works out to about 3.7% a year. That's the math behind Waller floating 50bp. It's also awkward for the market's story. Prices have spent the past month leaning toward slower growth and cooling inflation. This print doesn't help that case. One quirk before you read the takes this morning. There's no official year-over-year number for October. BLS couldn't collect prices last October during the shutdown, so any annual rate you see today is someone's estimate. The first reaction was clean. 10-year note futures dropped half a point, gold is off 1.4%, the dollar's firmer and Nasdaq futures are down about 1%. Crude kept sliding to $85. Yesterday's S&P trend call came back on thin support, and with futures down 0.4%, SPY is sitting only a few tenths above 747.74, where that call ends. The 10-year auction is at 10 a.m. Pacific and CoreWeave reports after the close. If SPY loses 747.74 today, yesterday's turn lasted one session.

Our S&P trend call turned back on today. It's about as weak as a bullish call gets. SUNSET LOG | November 9, 2026 SPY cleared the level that flips it, so the call came back. But it passes none of its five strength checks, only one engine holds it, and it returns at half size because the three-month reward-to-risk read is still washing out. A lot of today looks like positioning coming back in. The groups hedge funds dumped hardest last week led, and equal weight lagged. With fear collapsing and dealers short gamma, they had to buy too. That's my read. The data can't tell new money from covering yet. Small caps did more. IWM turned long at full size after clearing 278, and high yield held up while it did. Those were the two things I said I'd want before trusting the rotation. Still, the call rests on 20-day momentum alone, and that's only about 1% above zero. IWM also closed right on its gamma flip, so dealers could swing either way from here. One awkward detail. Industrials led the rally, and we went short them last week. That call is still on. The fear came out fast. The VIX curve flattened back out after being inverted all the way across on Thursday, and rates volatility fell even harder on the week. Two things didn't come along. Our credit gauge is still in confirmed stress. And oil kept sliding. WTI broke the early-October low near $88 that I flagged this morning and finished near $86.85. Its trend call now leans on chart support alone and doesn't end until $79.62. CPI is at 5:30 a.m. Pacific, then the 10-year auction, then CoreWeave after the close. A benign print and a broader rally would mean more than covering. SPY back under 747.74 undoes today.

Oil's down another 3% and small caps are up more than 1%. Nvidia's the big name going the other way, off 5% after its board opened a probe into whether Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. DAWN PATROL | November 9, 2026 Yesterday afternoon Rubio called the Iran talks unproductive. By morning it had flipped. Trump told CNN new strikes are "highly unlikely" if Iran signs a strong agreement, and diplomatic sources say Tehran has signed off on a Qatari interim deal: Hormuz reopens, $8 billion in frozen funds gets released. Neither government has confirmed it. Brent's at $94. WTI is near $88, sitting right on its early-October low. Our WTI trend call is still long at half size, and it doesn't end until $79.62. Small caps are the cleaner read this morning. Russell futures are up 1.3% against 0.4% for the Nasdaq-100. IWM needs to get back above about 278 for our trend call there to turn up, and that's within reach today. Dealers are short gamma in 8 of 11 sectors, and in high yield too. Whichever way today breaks, it's likely to run. Cheaper oil should be helping bonds. It isn't yet. The 10-year is holding near 4.86% ahead of today's $58B 3-year auction and Tuesday's CPI. CoreWeave is down almost 4% before tomorrow's earnings, the other neoclouds with it. It also wrote to Texas's governor-elect asking her to let its data-center projects go ahead. The lines that matter today: IWM 278, WTI's October low near $88, and 7,575 on S&P futures, where our S&P call turns back up.

Oil fell 13% last week on hopes of a US–Iran deal. This afternoon Secretary of State Rubio called the talks unproductive and Iran's demands simply unacceptable. Sunday night | November 8, 2026 WTI opened the week down 0.4% at $90.43, so futures haven't priced the setback yet. Our trend calls on crude bent through the drop without breaking. WTI is still bullish after 84 days, though at half size and passing only 2 of 5 strength checks. It held its early-October low near $88, and the call doesn't end until $79.62. The Brent fund is in better shape, still full size with its line about 21% lower. Saudi and UAE exports are back to prewar levels, so supply is real. But the physical market never fully priced a deal either, with 216 million barrels still owed back to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. WTI back above $96 would be the market taking the deal out of the price. — Built to Tilt ⚓

Nasdaq futures are giving back 0.5% on the Sunday open while small caps edge higher. The rotation didn't take the weekend off. Sunday night | November 8, 2026 • S&P futures are flat and Russell futures are up 0.1%. VIX futures sit at 23.1, two and a half points under Friday's spot VIX, so the market is still pricing a calmer month ahead. • Crypto took the weekend hit: bitcoin is back under $75,000 and ether is down almost 5%. Brent is off 0.8% to $97.50 and gold is flat near $4,070. • The long bond is the setup. 30-year Treasury futures have climbed from 102 to 108 since mid-October, and our bearish trend there ends at 109.09, about 0.6% higher. Tuesday's CPI decides both. A cool print could carry the long bond through 109.09 before Thursday's 30-year auction, and small caps over mega-cap tech holds as long as the ratio stays above 0.4123. — Built to Tilt ⚓

SUNSET LOG | November 6, 2026 Chips led the bounce. Credit didn't follow. Our credit gauge moved from Warning to Confirmed Stress this week, its first step past Warning after five weeks there. High-yield spreads are 1.5 standard deviations wider than normal, lower-quality junk is lagging the rest of high yield, and over the past month credit has trailed Treasuries by nearly 3 standard deviations. HYG's long is still on, but it halves below 76.95 and ends below 76.89, half a percent under tonight's close. Hot payrolls set the rest of the day. The 2-year rose to 4.51%, the dollar made the biggest move on the board relative to its normal range, and long Treasuries went nowhere. SPY is boxed between its dealer walls, and the upper one dropped sharply since Thursday. The rotation held, mostly. Thursday morning, small caps versus mega-cap tech was 0.4% from turning long. It turned that day, and small caps versus the S&P 500 followed today. What the signal didn't show: the rotation came from tech falling, not small caps rising. Small caps are down 2% on the week, and today's chip bounce pulled equal weight behind cap weight again. The book kept moving. Industrials went short today with all five strength checks met, and financials and materials were cut to half size. For the week, 116 calls left long and 40 shorts opened. Money kept buying the dip in chips anyway. Semiconductor ETF inflows ran 3.2 standard deviations above normal this week, against a flat call. The weather is Heavy weather; a week ago it was Chop. The economy reads Reflation and payrolls backed it. The past month of prices reads Deflation at 84% confidence. Credit is where that gap gets settled first. Levels to watch: HYG below 76.89: our high-yield long ends IWM/QQQ below 0.4123: the small-cap rotation call ends SPY 730: the dealer put wall RSP below 210.17: our last index long ends — Built to Tilt ⚓

DAWN PATROL | November 6, 2026 Payrolls came in hot on every line, a day after the S&P's worst session since April 2025. Thursday's selloff was about AI spending, and the economy isn't giving bonds a reason to rally. The print: 165,000 jobs against roughly 60,000 expected, unemployment 4.1%, wages +0.4% for the month and 3.1% for the year, and 84,000 in upward revisions. A December hike stays the base case. Asia didn't get a bounce. The Nikkei fell 6% into a bear market, more than 20% below its June high, with Advantest down 12% and SoftBank opening 16% lower. Korea's Kospi fell 6%, ending an 11.7% weekly drop. Japan's 10-year yield fell 13bp to 2.64%, so Japanese bonds did the hedging. US bonds didn't: the 10-year was back at 4.87% before the print, and our trend call on 10-year note futures has been bearish for 169 sessions. Under the index, Thursday was a liquidation. 116 of our calls left long, 103 of them equities. Communication services, utilities and staples lost the least; tech lost the most. The overnight bounce went to the names that fell hardest: Nasdaq futures +1.5%, Dow futures −0.8%. That bounce runs into crowded positioning. Speculators' net long in Nasdaq-100 futures is 2.4 standard deviations above normal while our trend call there is bearish. S&P and small-cap positioning are near normal. All three index calls are bearish and flat. The S&P turns back up 2.4% higher, small caps 2.6%, the Nasdaq-100 6%. The seven-month trend is still up on all three, so the short gate stays closed. The dollar is up 0.5% and gold is down 1.1% to $4,067. Oil is flat, WTI near $91, on hopes for a US-Iran deal. The plumbing is mixed: reverse repo drained further to $125M, but repo now trades 6bp over fed funds, down from 9bp. High-yield futures are down 0.3% while investment grade is up. On the calendar: University of Michigan sentiment at 10 ET. The weather is still Heavy weather. The 20-day tape prices deflation, and payrolls say the economy is still running. Long bonds are where that gets settled. Levels to watch: - SPY above 748: our S&P trend call turns bullish again - QQQ 650: the dealer put wall it closed below Thursday - TLT below 81.70: our long-bond position ends - HYG below 76.91: our high-yield position ends — Built to Tilt ⚓

The S&P 500 had its worst day since April 2025, and bonds barely moved. That's the problem with this selloff. Semiconductors had their worst day since March 2020. Nvidia fell 9%; AMD and Micron fell 17%. What started as a rotation out of AI ended as a liquidation across every sector. Our trend signal turned bearish on the S&P 500 and industrials today, joining the Nasdaq-100 and small caps. Equal weight is the one index still long, at half size. The positions are flat. A short needs momentum falling at all three horizons, and the seven-month trend is still up. Dealers are short gamma on all three indexes, so their hedging adds to moves. The S&P 500 and small caps closed just above their put walls. The Nasdaq-100 closed through its wall. Equity volatility moved to Dangerous while rates and currency volatility stayed calm. Bonds barely cushioned it. Fed futures cut the odds of a December hike from 83% to 70%, but with a hike still more likely than not, duration isn't working as a hedge. The trend call on long Treasuries turns off just 0.3% below tonight's close. Credit is the last line holding. High yield's trend call is still long, and it ends about half a percent lower. Payrolls at 5:30 a.m. Pacific. Levels: SPY 730 (put wall), 747.74 (trend turns back up) · QQQ 650 · TLT 81.70 · HYG 76.91 - Built to Tilt ⚓️

DAWN PATROL | November 5, 2026 Chips are paying for the data center politics. Nasdaq futures are down 0.8% while the S&P and Russell are up 0.1%. Asia took the worst of it. Korea's Kospi fell 4.8% and tripped a trading curb, with SK Hynix down about 9%, and Japan's chip equipment makers lost 10 to 12%. The flip side: Australian data center operator NextDC jumped 48% on a stake purchase. When new capacity gets harder to build, the capacity already powered gets more valuable. The bigger story is under the index. Momentum and high beta are being sold; minimum volatility, equal weight and value are being bought. Our trend calls moved with it: tech and semis went flat this week, while 9 of 12 sectors stay long. The sectors say what the market is pricing. Staples, health care and utilities, the three that usually lead when growth and inflation are both cooling, are all long. Homebuilders are our best-running calls: cheaper oil, lower yields, rate-sensitive stocks bid. The one to watch is small caps versus mega-cap tech. That trend has been short for 48 sessions and is 0.4% from turning long. Oil is bouncing after Wednesday's 8% drop, WTI up 2% to $89.90, on unconfirmed reports of tankers on fire in Hormuz. Gold is up another 1.3% to $4,128 and still trading flows, not macro. The plumbing tightened another notch: reverse repo is down to $225M and repo trades 9bp over fed funds. On the calendar: the Bank of England is expected to hike to 4% this morning, its first hike in three years. US jobless claims at 8:30 ET, payrolls Friday. The weather is still Heavy weather. Markets price slowing growth while the data still reads Reflation. Friday tests which one is right. Levels: IWM/QQQ 0.4123 · QQQ 699 · SPY 768 · gold $4,242 — Built to Tilt ⚓

SUNSET LOG | November 4, 2026 The election's biggest trade was oil. WTI fell 8.3% to $88.12, its biggest drop since May, and Brent 8.7% to $94.62, its lowest since August, as traders priced a shorter path to an Iran deal. Trend-following funds cutting longs added to the slide. Cheaper oil went straight to the consumer. Discretionary led the rally, and energy was the one sector that fell hard. Bonds followed oil, not the deficit. Inflation expectations fell with crude and the curve flattened slightly. This morning we read the long-end rally as less supply. The close says otherwise: it was inflation coming out of the price. That moved our market regime read a step further. Markets now price falling growth and falling inflation over the past quarter as well as the past month. The economic data still reads Reflation, so the gap between the two now runs three months deep. Credit steadied. Our high-yield trend call, one engine from flipping this morning, has both engines back. Fear left fast. The VIX curve is back to a normal upward slope, and one-day options now price less movement than the S&P has actually delivered. Demand for crash protection stayed high while the VIX fell, which sets our complacency flag. Dealers turned long gamma on SPY, so their hedging now leans against moves. The Nasdaq-100 trend call stays flat until QQQ clears 699. Oil's trend call is still long, now at half size. The weather is still Heavy weather. Levels: QQQ 699 · WTI $88 · VIX 18 — Built to Tilt ⚓

DAWN PATROL | November 4, 2026 The sweep sold Nasdaq and bought small caps. Nasdaq futures fell as much as 2.4% as Democrats took both chambers and are now up 0.3%. Russell futures lead, up 1.5%; the S&P is up 0.9%. The result reaches markets through three channels, and each is already trading. Fiscal: divided government makes new spending harder to pass. The long end leads the bond rally, with ultra-long Treasury futures up 0.3% and 2-year futures flat, pricing less supply. Energy: President Trump said the Iran war played a role in the losses. Brent is down 1.6% to $102 and gasoline futures 1.8%. AI: permitting and power costs for the build are now a live policy question. AMD rose 6% on its 2027 outlook, while the companies that own and lease the buildings, CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN, traded lower. Chips held; the leveraged layer took the policy risk. Elsewhere, the Nikkei fell 2.9% and Taiwan 2.3%. The dollar is down 0.6%, gold up 2.8% to $4,050 and silver 4.1%. The channel the crowd isn't watching is the plumbing. Bank reserves fell $69B to $2.89T, reverse repo is down to $427M, and repo trades 7bp over fed funds. Our weather reading is still Heavy weather: the economy reads warm, but support has turned, with less fiscal stimulus in the budget data and the system's cash cushion gone. The election doesn't refill it. The election premium is draining. The VIX is down 12% to 18.3, back under the 20 line that is one of three triggers holding the equity regime at choppy. Speculators still hold Nasdaq longs at the 90th percentile of the year while our trend call there is flat, which is why the overnight drop ran so fast. Rates are the next test: futures price a December hike at about 78%, and payrolls come Friday. SPY is set to open just above its 760 call wall, under the 764 gamma flip, so dealer hedging still adds to moves. Levels: S&P futures trend support 7,575 · QQQ 680, back up above 699 · VIX 20 · 30Y 5.3% · gold $4,000 — Built to Tilt ⚓

SUNSET LOG | November 3, 2026 The S&P snapped a three-day slide. Our weather reading went the other way, to Heavy weather: the economic backdrop and price action now both lean against risk. The economy didn't cause it. Job openings beat at 7.5 million, factory orders rose 1.8%, and growth is still the one tailwind. What turned was fiscal: with Treasury's $800B borrowing estimate in the data, it became the biggest headwind of the six. Bonds agreed, and long yields rose on a strong data day. The bounce ran on a few sectors. Tech, communications and industrials carried it; staples and materials fell hardest, and equal weight lagged. Semis rose 2.6% and Oracle 5.9% once its stock sale cleared, while Korea and Taiwan, where the chips are made, fell 3.6% on AI-spending worries. Meta's $15B bond drew about $58B of orders. Credit is still funding the build, at a price. The stress is in commodities, not stocks. Oil volatility sits in its stressed band even as Brent fell 1.1%, shrugging off a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island while the Qatar-brokered talks continue. Tonight is the test. Options price one-day protection above one-month, the election priced as a single event. Dealers are short gamma, so their hedging adds to the move in either direction. And the usual links between markets are breaking down, so don't count on bonds to hedge stocks. Levels: SPY trend support 747.74 · QQQ turns back up above 699 · 30Y 5.32% · Brent $103.60 — Built to Tilt ⚓

DAWN PATROL | November 3, 2026 Oil fell 7% and the consumer got paid. Credit didn't join the relief, and the level that ends our high-yield long is five cents below Monday's close. Yesterday we said HYG holding 77.39 through Friday would make last week's move into credit real. It lasted one session: HYG closed at 76.89. High-yield spreads barely moved, at 339bp near an 18-month high. Our trend read now holds the long on momentum alone, and it ends below 76.84. Oil first. Iran's leadership authorized further talks with Washington and offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under strict conditions. Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 and WTI 7.4% to $96.46, the biggest drop since July. Overnight the US reportedly struck Iran's Qeshm Island after the IRGC said it downed US drones near the Strait. Brent is flat near $105; WTI is down another 2.3% to $94.22. The talks are moving faster than the shooting is stopping. The market paid the oil drop to the consumer. Discretionary rose 2.4%, financials 1.9% and materials 1.8%. Equal weight gained 0.8%, and gainers beat decliners two to one. Tech fell 3% and energy 4%, and the Nasdaq-100 fell 1.4% into a correction. Oracle dropped 8.8% after filing to raise $20B in stock and bonds: the AI build going back to the market for money. Futures are higher: S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +1.0%, Russell +0.8%. Korea fell more than 3% early, with Samsung and SK Hynix down about 5%. The RBA hiked to 4.85%, an 18-year high, with three dissents. Bonds took the oil drop as inflation relief. The 10-year is near 4.90% and the 30-year fell 4bp to 5.27%. ISM manufacturing rose to 55.5 with production at its highest since 2021, while prices paid eased to 75.2. Funding is tightening at the edges. SOFR sits 7bp over fed funds, the reverse repo cushion is down to about $5B, and Treasury's first-quarter borrowing estimate is $800B, $150B of it to rebuild cash. The refunding split comes Wednesday. The BTT read: the economy still looks fine, and prices are saying slowdown. For a month, markets have priced weaker growth and softer inflation together, and the three sectors that usually lead a slowdown, staples, health care and utilities, are now the top three. Long Treasuries turned long yesterday, and tech and semis dropped to flat. Credit is the most stretched signal we track, lagging Treasuries by more than anything else we measure. The S&P is still in an uptrend, but at half size and 0.6% above the level that ends it. Calls change at the close, not on futures. The other side: falling oil is a real tax cut, the ISM was strong, and breadth was broad. If the Iran talks hold, energy relief keeps flowing to the consumer and credit can steady. Spreads barely moved, so the damage so far is in price, not in credit itself. Watch HYG at 76.84 and the S&P at 747.74. Both trends end there, both are less than one ordinary day's move away, and dealer hedging is adding to moves rather than absorbing them. Votes are counted tonight, the refunding is tomorrow, payrolls are Friday. Levels: Brent ~$105, WTI $94.22, 10Y ~4.90%, gold $3,974, USD/JPY 158.07, VIX 21.1. — Built to Tilt ⚓

DAWN PATROL | November 2, 2026 Oil fell 4% on a promise of diplomacy. Credit didn't join the relief. We closed Friday with the weather at Chop: the economy holding, prices not, and the book rebuilt around bonds, credit and defensives. The weekend tested the oil long and the new credit long at once. Oil first. Trump says Iran talks get more time, with no decision on strikes before Tuesday's vote, and an Iranian delegation met mediators in Qatar. OPEC+ held December output flat. Brent's January contract is down 4.3% to about $108.50, WTI 4.3% to $99.67, gasoline 5.1%. Two ships were struck in and near the Strait of Hormuz the same weekend. The barrels are moving; the stockpiles aren't refilled. The headline is being priced, not the shortage, and our trend read stays long oil. Stocks took the relief. S&P futures are up 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.6%, Russell 0.5%. Korea rose about 2.5% with SK Hynix up nearly 5%. China's official manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.3, and copper rose anyway. Rates read it as inflation relief. The 10-year is near 4.91%, 2bp lower, and gilt yields are 6bp lower. With oil falling, lower yields say less inflation pressure, not a growth scare. The long-bond futures are leading. Credit is the holdout. High-yield credit futures are down 0.2% and the duration-hedged version 0.4%, while investment grade is flat. Stocks bounced; the weakest borrowers didn't. That matters because high yield is the newest long in our book, five days old, and HYG closed Friday five cents above 77.39, where it loses one of its two engines. The hedges are still bid. MOVE rose 7% Friday to 100 and VVIX 8.6% while VIX barely moved: traders paid for the size of the next move, not its direction. Dealers are short gamma in both the S&P and HYG, so moves in either get amplified. The crowd is stretched in five of 26 futures markets (CFTC, as of Tuesday). Natural gas is the one to watch: speculators sit near their most bearish position of the year (z −2.9), and gas is 2% below 3.027, the level that flips our seven-month trend. It's up 2.2% this morning. Copper too: speculators are near a one-year bearish extreme (z −2.2) against our half-size long, and it rose this morning despite China's PMI. The long extreme is the 30-year bond (z +2.3), against our flat read. When positioning is that one-sided, the risk is the move nobody is positioned for. The BTT read: The Bridge reads Chop, with the tape 0.18 from returning to mixed. The Compass has priced Deflation for 11 trading days while Trade Winds still reads Reflation, and the sector book agrees with the Compass: 10 of 12 sectors are long, including all three that usually lead in Deflation. Credit is in its fifth week at Warning. Calls change at the close, not on futures. The other side: falling oil helps the consumer and eases pressure on the Fed, and a deal out of Qatar could extend the drop. Equal weight is up 4.2% over 20 days, and a bounce after Friday's worst day since June is normal. A 0.2% move in credit futures is one session, not a trend. Watch HYG, not the Nasdaq. If it holds 77.39 through ISM today, the vote tomorrow and payrolls Friday, last week's move into credit was real. If it breaks, the rebuild was a one-week bounce. Apple reports after the close. Levels: Brent ~$108.50, WTI $99.67, 10Y ~4.91%, gold $3,914, USD/JPY 157.84, VIX 19.42. — Built to Tilt ⚓

The flip makes sense at the top of the stack. Microsoft's $25B deal drew ~$115B of orders and priced up to 30bp inside initial talk. The market isn't shutting the window on AI borrowers; it's charging different prices for different balance sheets. The risk has moved down the pyramid, not away. The financings beneath the hyperscalers are pricing in high yield: junior debt on a ~$60B chip-lease deal came at 10%+ and is rated BB+/BB, and a $63B lab chip financing is reportedly heading for BB. Our trend model splits it the same way. It just turned long high yield and intermediate IG, but it's still short long-dated IG (LQD), with 30-year yields still trending up. Buy the credit, mind the duration. LQD above 104.46 is where that short ends.