Father, Chief U.S. Economist, @sghmacro, former @uoregon economist, Tim Duy's Fed Watch, former columnist for @bopinion

Eugene, OR
Joined September 2011
It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative. If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.
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OMFG
This post radicalized me into hosting a dinner party.
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sorry, what?
I wrote about the new generation in Washington, DC semafor.com/article/10/21/20…
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SCOOP: Major U.S. banks are detecting unauthorized third-party AI agents inside customer accounts, including some attempting to take actions that appear to be independent of user instructions, sources told Axios. The findings have alarmed banking executives, who are racing to restrict access to their systems as AI moves at a velocity faster than financial institutions can respond, multiple industry and bank executives told Axios. Several banks are now preparing for worst-case and even “day after” scenarios, including how to rapidly secure or restore customer accounts if things go wrong, the people said. Several bank executives told Axios they're struggling to distinguish between human users and AI agents. One executive said banks also struggle to determine whether agents are authorized by customers or potentially operating without their permission, more akin to rogue agent behavior. Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/10/22/ai-agen…
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At the risk of angering a few folks, I vehemently disagree about the old rules not applying in this economy. When my career began I had no idea where it would or could go. I was curious & rigorously continued my education to improve my skills. Be agile & solve problems. 1/n
Most career advice comes from an economy that no longer exists. So what still works? What should people DO? These are the questions behind my new show, Best of Luck! Every week, I sit down with people who have built careers that have gone sideways, forwards, backwards, and forwards again. Each guest tells their story, swaps career advice, interviews for a job (!), and together, we try to understand the economy we're actually living AND working in.
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Tim Duy retweeted
It’s hard to put into words, this unspeakable tragedy, a few blocks away, where our kids went, my wife has taught, our literal community. My heart is broken, for the loss of life, those fighting to live, the survivors, the heros who prevented something worse, all the families
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Tim Duy retweeted
The worst people, the absolute worst people, are those who only think about “hurt” after hurt happens to them.
2x Trump voter: "I've hurt more under him than I have any other president."
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🧵The literature concerning why a constant money stock would pose problems is vast, with contributions from economists from numerous schools, including Hayek among other Austrians and sympathetic fellow travelers like the great Leland Yeager.
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Tim Duy retweeted
Kevin Warsh’s job just got a lot harder. My article, which secretly has a Philadelphia dateline politico.com/news/2026/10/09…
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Kevin Warsh wants investors to watch the economy, not the Fed. But two of his deputies stepped in last week and the probability of an October rate hike fell to around 25% from 70% ahead of any major new data. Why weaning the markets off Fed signals is harder than it sounds
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As a journalist, these kinds of programs strike me as borderline predatory. It costs $120,000 to complete Columbia's 9-month MA in journalism. For a career where the starting salary is often as low as $40,000. We need to normalize learning on the job.
NEW: The Columbia Journalism School is pausing admissions for its Master of Arts degree amid a “critical evaluation” of the M.A. curriculum, Dean Jelani Cobb announced in a Thursday afternoon email to alumni.
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This is a cult, and the sooner we start acting like the people in these industries are cult leaders/victims, the better.
This is deeply disturbing: Anthropic secretly invited religious leaders to SF to advise them on AI safety, had them sign NDAs, but then primarily tried to convince them Claude has a soul & moral standing, all while wining & dining them to the max. 1/ tinyurl.com/preview/296b5z8z
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Tim Duy retweeted
<Chef's kiss>
I've never seen a room that screams more loudly "Please scam me". Look at the suits, the hair - I hope there are time share salespeople lined up outside.
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For example, Oregon is somehow last place in the entire country for education. And Portland is rather a mess.
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I don't know if it'll happen this year, but Oregon Democrats do lowkey kind of deserve to lose at some point. Oregon is one of the worst-governed states in the country relative to potential.
OREGON POLL - Governor 🟥 Christine Drazan: 46% 🟦 Tina Kotek (inc): 44% With leans 🟥 Christine Drazan: 47% 🟦 Tina Kotek (inc): 46% 🟩 Brett Smith: 3% —— • DHM Research/OPB • 9/17-27 | 915 LV | MoE: ±3.24% opb.org/article/2026/09/30/o…
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Tim Duy retweeted
🔴 Fed's Williams: I see inflation at 3.5% this year, hit 2% target in 2028.
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Tim Duy retweeted
Ran into a guy who’s owned long bonds for the last 5 years. He says it’s worse than divorce. He’s lost half his money but he’s still married.
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