seeing a lot of poorly informed X dot com (the everything app) takes on why the US treasury market is moving today
few understand that this video is actually the main catalyst behind this bond move
Tim retweeted
How many will dress up as “PHP” for Halloween? 🎃
Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.
doing this to create a dashboard just for ur bros to look at all day (no actionable takeaway from the dashboard) (no money made from the dashboard)
bullish (few)
It is becoming f*cking dangerous
A 23-year-old dev from China just ran 300 Claude Code agents in parallel and hooked them to a verification layer so none of them could bullshit him
He opens the live dashboard:
- 300 agents writing and checking at the same time
- Every output verified against the source in ~100 ms
- Three passes over 100 company profiles → zero errors left
- Everything dumped straight into an Obsidian vault
The trick is the split: one model does the work, a cheaper one decides if the claim is actually true. The loop doesn’t stop until everything checks out
An analyst team would bill weeks for this. He got it in one run
Same kind of Second Brain + swarm setup that keeps circulating. Bookmark the full breakdown
Photos released of the suspected North Korean defecting General Sam Hyun-Dae allegedly behind Kim Jong-un attack
🤖 Made with AI
Kim Jong-un ‘in coma after suffering brain haemorrhage’, wild rumours claim
thesun.co.uk/news/40730186/k…
how is everyone surviving this BLACK MONDAY MAYHEM???
can’t wait for everyone who yesterday after the futures open kept saying “uhhh akshully it’s not even Monday yet”
update?
Tim retweeted
the last Friday something similar happened was March. The vix curve got murdered on Monday morning
TLDR: movement in the $VIX and VIX options yesterday far outstripped moves in the SPX. there's information about market fragility here that we should be mindful of.
the VIX and SPX are negatively correlated. run the regression and it's on the order of -80%. but the slope of the regression (change in VIX per change in the SPX) is time varying. we have periods when the VIX moves a ton relative to the SPX move (Feb'18 volmagedon). in contrast, 2022 brought an extremely dull VIX, muted reactive to moves in the SPX.
yesterday, especially from 12:30 to 1:30pm, both the VIX and $VVIX moved a great deal relative to the move in the SPX. I show this below (thank you, Claude). typical VIX beta (% move in VIX per 1% move in the SPX) has been around 7. yesterday it reached on the order of 50. from 12:30 to 1:30, SPX down just 60bps...VIX up 29% (50x)...
talking my own thinking here, but there is no security in markets better equipped (at a low price) to hedge a near term crash than a short-dated out of the money call option on the VIX. this is what got really bid yesterday. the Oct 25 call (expires Wednesday) went from being worth 6 cents in the morning to more than $1 a few hours later. it exploded not just because the VIX rose so much, but because "vol of vol" surged as well.
no security is more "spot up, vol up" than the VIX itself. it will be interesting to see if this was a one-off or indicative of a larger shift in behavior where investor seek to cover deep left tail risk.
it do be like this sometimes
Deer are all over New Jersey roads looking for sex, state officials warn
gothamist.com/news/deer-are-…
Tim retweeted
The employee was terminated.
We discovered a sophisticated recording device that was hidden inside one of our offices. We used our models to understand the device and where it had come from, identifying that a specific employee had planted it a few days earlier. We referred the matter to the FBI, and we’re grateful to the agents and prosecutors who moved quickly to make an arrest. The FBI’s investigation is ongoing and we will continue to support their work.
At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated.
We take protecting our technology, data, and people seriously, and as a matter of national importance. Our security program is designed to protect against a wide range of threat actors, from insider risks to cybercriminals to nation states, and this case is an example of how AI can help address these sophisticated security threats.