Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics @ETH Zurich || Political Economy and Applied Macro
Zurich
Joined March 2024
- Tweets12
- Following72
- Followers26
- Likes25
Delighted that my paper “Gambling for Re-election” (with Alastair Langtry, Niklas Potrafke and Marcel Schlepper), has been accepted at @EJ_RES!
Why do politicians back risky political leaders - even ones they expect to perform worse on average?🧵
That prospect can make a risky leader attractive – we call this “gambling for re-election”.
The paper combines a model of rational risk-taking with a rare look behind the scenes of Germany’s Laschet–Söder contest to explore how political survival shapes leadership choices.
We use a major scandal around COVID-19 facemasks for causal identification.
To find out more, read the ungated paper here: drive.google.com/file/d/1TdE…
Timo Wochner retweeted
New at JIE: "Expert inflation preferences and the evaluation of monetary policy" by Timo Wochner (@TimoWochner), Lukas Hack (@LukasHack_) and Niklas Potrafke (@ifo_Institut)
doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.20…
Accepted at @JIntlEcon!
What’s the optimal inflation rate? We know surprisingly little. Structural models provide a relatively wide range of estimates.
In our new paper (w/ @LukasHack_ & N. Potrafke), we ask economic experts globally what inflation rate they consider optimal. 🧵
Inflation preferences also shape how experts judge monetary policy.
Three months later, experts who preferred higher inflation evaluated rate hikes more negatively—and rate cuts more positively.
To find out more about the role of experts' narratives and experts' mental models, see the Paper here: drive.google.com/file/d/1Znr…