$AUDUSD 75% priced for another RBA hike on Melbourne Cup day. I haven’t seen the RBA run this much publicity into a decision before. That isn’t information, it’s narrative management, softening up Mums and Dads ahead of the pain. It isn’t complicated either. Population growth is too strong for an economy this size and government spending is too high. But there’s ZERO political appetite to slow either one, because neither side survives doing it. So the Government lets the RBA carry it using the only tool that hits households directly. The futures market is caught short AUD, so a hike gives you the pump. That’s the short-term trade and it’s why every breakdown keeps failing. But the thing causing the pump is the same thing killing growth, and growth is what the currency eventually has to price. AUDUSD remains a sell on strength, targeting 0.7050/0.7100 area And dont forget to thank Jim and Albo when you’re struggling to fill the trolley and cover the mortgage in the months to come @AlboMP

👀🤮

Traders have their work cut out for them this week with rate decisions from the FED, BOC, ECB, BOJ, RBNZ Also the busiest week for US earnings with 1/3 of the S&P componenets due to report Good luck🫡 Monday, Oct. 26 South Korea GDP A German IFO survey Tuesday, Oct. 27 China industrial profits US durable goods orders, consumer confidence and new home sales Wednesday, Oct. 28 Australia CPI RBNZ interest rate decision SK Hynix earnings UK budget BOC interest rate decision Federal Reserve interest rate decision Microsoft and Alphabet earnings Thursday, Oct. 29 Samsung earnings ECB interest rate decision US GDP A, personal income, personal spending, core PCE and jobless claims Amazon and Intel earnings Friday, Oct. 30 BOJ interest rate decision Tokyo CPI, retail sales and industrial production Euro-area GDP A Germany and France CPI P US employment cost index

$AUDUSD Big rally in USTs (10y −15bp) and the yen, despite Brent +$3 on the day (US$113/bbl) and the S&P only off −1.3%. Looks like an unjustifiably large move in bonds until you see where the damage actually is. Nasdaq −3%, Meta −7%. This isn’t a growth scare. It’s the market putting a question mark over the durability of the AI boom again, and that’s what’s behind the bid. AUDUSD is the standout. On those moves it has no business above 0.6980, yet it’s sitting comfortably towards monthly highs above 0.7000, held up entirely by the pending hike. That’s the opportunity. Use the strength to get short. The hike propping it up is the same one that finishes the job on the Australian economy, and once it’s delivered the rates market has nothing left to price.

bitcoin:native 😭 Yields down, USD down, and BTC still couldn’t flip the monthly open and hold it. Said it yesterday. Reclaim that level and the squeeze means something. Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range. It failed there.

$BB This is a good looking chart. Three months of basing between 7.50 and 9.00 after the drawdown from 13, and it’s just reclaimed the previous month high with the monthly and weekly opens stacked underneath as support. Everything above the yearly open at 4.00 and well clear of it. Higher lows into resistance, and the levels are clean enough that you know quickly if you’re wrong. A close and hold above 9.40 and the prior quarter mid at 10.80 comes into play.

bitcoin:native 👀

$BTC Focus now shifts to the monthly opening levels, BTC and across the crypto majors. Flip and hold that level and the squeeze becomes far more meaningful. Reclaiming the monthly open turns a bounce off support into something the higher timeframe traders have to respect. Fail there and it’s just another move inside the range

$NFLX NGL, enjoying watching this one unravel. Sat through enough kids’ content with my daughter that jammed in ideology under the guise of inclusion to know exactly what they were doing. Absolute brain rot. Netflix just fired its film chief, his right hand, the indie film head, the chief content officer, and around 1,000 staff. Stock down 35% since April. Who would have thought the audience were the ones keeping score after all.

bitcoin:native Won’t take much to confirm a higher low around the 80k region. The setup is there. If price is genuinely bullish it holds structure. Then a mildly bullish headline hits the tape, and by the time the influencers catch on and tell you it’s going higher, BTC is already trading above 84k. That’s how it always works. The move happens, then the narrative arrives to explain it.

$BTC Another weekend of market makers clearing leveraged stops Bottom line: BTC tested 80k and held again. I’m not understanding the rationale for shorts at these levels, and I like a good short. My edge is trading the disconnect between tradfi and crypto when I see one. Right now I’m looking at US yields at monthly lows after higher inflation prints, USD sideways to lower, and a US equity market giving back recent gains. From a liquidity perspective conditions are easier. That says crypto is a buy on weakness at current levels. Structurally I still think BTC is a buy on dips toward 80k, and I think crypto bottoms before equities finish falling. It always reprices risk appetite first, in both directions. Expecting a rally into month end starting this week. Invalidation is the same as last week, lose 80k on the higher timeframe and the thesis is dead