Matt 🇦🇺

I trade Bitcoin and other crypto perpetual futures full-time. Have for 5 years. Built my own system from scratch - confluence-based, Asia session focused, strict on which trades I'll actually take. No signals. No hype. Just what I see at the chart every morning and the thinking behind it. If that's useful to you, stick around.

For weeks now the longs have been getting flushed every few days. Then they reload and get flushed again. There isn't much money sitting in this market. When most of it leans one way on leverage, a small move can set off a big liquidation. It reminds me of summer here in Australia. The bush gets so dry that one spark from a car on the side of the road can burn thousands of kilometres. I'm not going long into conditions like that. I'd rather watch what the spot buyers are doing and wait. Have you been caught in one of these flushes?

I've been saying it for weeks. The longs here are fragile, and it only takes a small move to light the fire. bitcoin:native just lost $73k. Last 24 hours: $632M liquidated across 109,885 traders. $506M of it longs. That is 80%. But look at the timing. $291M of that came in the last hour alone. Nearly half a day's worth of damage in sixty minutes. Here is the part that gets me. Every few days the longs get wiped, and within hours they are reloaded at the same leverage, in the same direction, waiting for the same thing to happen again. The data has been telling you who was offside for a month. What makes someone re-enter the exact trade that just liquidated them?

CPI came in hot. 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected. Core 0.3% against 0.2%. It cooled from September’s 0.6%, and that will get the headlines. Doesn’t change much when both still beat. Two weeks ago Warsh’s tone took December hike odds from 78% to 86%. Overnight Waller said he’d back at least 25bp, and floated 50 if this print ran hot. It ran hot. BTC down about 1% into the $73,600s. Yields up, equities red. Let’s see what PPI brings on Friday. My guess is it’s not good as its the pipeline to CPI. Are you pricing 25 or 50 next month?

BTC.D is back testing the October high at 60.9%. Dominance is pressing that ceiling again. Until it fails, I treat alts as second. Do you need a clean break above 60.9 before you give alts another look? For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

S&P futures are up 0.4% this morning and the Nikkei closed up 2.3%. Gold is up 0.8%. Crypto went the other way, with total market cap down 5.1% in 24 hours and ETH down 5.7%. When Bitcoin stops moving with stocks, I don't try to explain why. I can't trade an explanation. I drop size until the two line up again or my own level breaks, whichever comes first. What do you do when your markets stop agreeing with each other? For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Full board read this morning. Money flow: RETREATING. Stablecoin supply -13.4B in 30d. ETFs -1.9B on the week. No new money at the doors. Positioning: split. Whales 78% short. CME funds short. Crowd 75% long (that’s fuel, not conviction). But top traders are leaning long and options are bidding calls, not puts. And underneath it all: exchange whale outflows at the 96th percentile. Coins leaving to cold storage while price sits on our third Domino level. Capital retreating. Someone accumulating. Price deciding. Five cohorts. Five public data sources. Zero trust in screenshots - every line on this panel is verifiable by anyone. The board doesn’t predict. It arms. When the market flips, it’ll say so before the headlines do. Structure over speculation, every time. NFA. Educational only. DYOR.

Back from Dubai. First quiet Sunday in a while. No charts, no alerts, just a creek and a dog who doesn’t care what Bitcoin’s doing. Best trading decisions I make are the ones I make after a day like this. What does switching off look like for you? #crypto #Bitcoin #cryptotrading #tradingpsychology

You think you missed the pump at 81k. Twenty-four hours later we were back near 75. There is no rush. Do a heat check before you size. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Missed the live? Back from Dubai. Bogdan and I walked through why Wednesday's rally failed, the thin-liquidity chop, and why there is no rush after a flush. Replay: youtube.com/watch?v=odTk9OmM… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BTC hit 81,196 on Wednesday. By 15:00 GMT Thursday the flush low was 75,568. That midweek bounce looked good. It was a trap. I do not chase a move like that. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Live at 12:30 GMT tonight with Bogdan. Bitcoin's rally failed. Price tagged 81,196 yesterday, flushed through the overnight low near 75,208, and is sitting near 76,190 now. We'll go through what changed on the 4H and daily, what would support a recovery, and what would signal further weakness. Then nearby setups on ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, NEAR and SUI. NFP is at 13:30 GMT, about an hour after we start. youtube.com/watch?v=odTk9OmM… Also streaming on @TMMastery For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Price pumps, you jump in. It dips, you panic out. It pushes again, you buy back higher. That loop drains accounts. Mark your levels, set alerts, and let price come to you. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Live at 12:30 GMT tonight. BTC rallied off the lows and tagged 81,196 yesterday. The question now is whether there's still a clean trade from here. I'll walk what I'm watching on the chart, what confirmation I want before I size in, and what would make me stand down. Then what that means for ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, NEAR and SUI. youtube.com/watch?v=bc5o1wHf… Also streaming on @TMMastery For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BoE day. I size down before the print, not after. Rate decision at 12:00 GMT, Bailey around 12:30, US jobless claims at 13:30, Lagarde later at 18:00 GMT. I don't need a view on the vote. I need room for the reaction. Smaller size and a wider stop until the first move settles. Do you change size on central bank days, or keep it the same? Follow if you want more of how I manage event risk. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Asia handed London a quiet book after yesterday's breakout. BTC spent 00:00-07:00 GMT in a 662-point range, 80,256 to 80,918. Price was still near 80,650 at 07:00 GMT. Asia volume stayed orderly. Nothing like the 3,942 BTC hour at 15:00 GMT Wednesday. That's a hold, not a chase. The move already happened. What matters now is whether this base survives the next event window. BoE rate decision is at 12:00 GMT, Bailey speaks around 12:30, then US jobless claims at 13:30 GMT. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Missed the live? Bogdan and BB covered why BTC is still stuck in a range after the election move, and why they would rather wait than chase a news push. Replay: youtube.com/watch?v=1RNyU4e5… For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

BTC dropped to 75,736 in Asia on Wednesday and was back near 78,500 within hours. Chase or wait? I'm waiting. Inside this box I have no edge. I want a break, then a retest that holds. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

A consensus doesn't make a thesis wrong. It makes the trade around it harder. Price can head to your target and still liquidate you on the way. Leverage doesn't wait for "eventually". For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.

After a big green day, I keep my size the same. A strong move makes the next entry feel safer than it is. My risk per trade doesn't change because the last candle was big. Same size and same stop rules as a quiet day. Follow along for more of how I manage risk day to day. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research.