Alex DeWolf

Rising oil prices are bad for your wallet, but historically? They're actually great for your portfolio. Everyone assumes that when oil spikes, the stock market tanks. But data since 1986 shows the exact opposite. The S&P 500 averages a higher return (13.1%) and a higher win rate (84%) in years when oil goes UP, compared to years when oil goes DOWN. Just stay invested.

$CRWV up 4.3% in the last 2 hours, +2.3% on the day, now at $50.10. That's about 7 times a normal hour's move after-hours with earnings in focus. It's recovering from this morning's low.

Monthly net-worth reconciliation on the first of each month Everyone wants rapid portfolio turnover or the next hot crypto. This did more: - It forces every inflow and outflow onto the same timeline, so small changes compound - It reveals hidden debt impact, letting you adjust assets before they erode returns The screen shows net worth $764,043, target $500,000 reached (100%), investments $386,000 across three portfolios with +19.0% average CAGR, and real-estate value $570,000 across four assets delivering $70,200 annual cash flow Which single monthly figure will you start recording tomorrow, net worth, investment balance, or property cash flow?

$RKLB jumped 31 places in retail discussion after scoring a +13.0% week. Meanwhile, traders stay obsessed with $MU even as it slides -12.0%. This could mean attention shifts toward smaller green names if big tech losses drag on.

Core CPI printed at +0.3% for October, the same as last time, while headline CPI came in at +0.4%. Bitcoin saw the biggest move relative to its usual size at -0.83%, while the US dollar index was the quietest at +0.23%. S&P futures dropped 0.66%, compared to an average move of 0.28% in the release hour over the last 8 releases.

bitcoin:native is not in a bull run. It is in a dead zone. Day 934 post-halving is a graveyard. The 2016 and 2020 cycles peaked on days 525 and 546. We are 400 days past the top. The 20-day moving average sits at $78,067, pressing down on price for six straight days. This is a trap. The RSI is 34.5. That is weak, not oversold. It signals fatigue, not exhaustion. Most traders are still chasing the 200-day moving average trend, which is rising. They are staring at the bottom of the chart while the top is already gone. Look at the attached chart. The line is green. That means the Mayer Multiple is 1.01. That is cheap relative to the 200-day average, but it is a warning, not a buy signal. In 2017, the peak Mayer Multiple was 3.74. In 2021, it was 1.48. We are nowhere near those extremes. We are drifting. The 200-week moving average is at $67,764. Price is only 9% above it. Past cycle lows formed near this line. This is the floor, not the base. I would rather own ethereum:native than bitcoin:native right now. I am wrong if bitcoin:native holds above $67,764 for two consecutive weeks. Is your 200-day moving average a buy signal or a lagging indicator?

Options price a 0.8% move for the S&P 500 today, with October CPI out at 8:30 AM New York time. After a print above the previous one 8 of the last 21 times, S&P 500 futures averaged +0.10% in that hour. After a print below it 13 of the last 21, they averaged +0.19%. Both are small next to the 0.8% the options price. My call: core CPI comes in below +0.3% for October.

$RKLB bulls celebrating revenue growth are ignoring how fast bottom-line losses add up. Even after a +10.9% pop, it still sits 25.2% below its 200-day average. This could mean widening losses burn cash long before that $3.6B backlog turns profitable.

October CPI prints at 8:30 AM New York time, following a previous core CPI reading of +0.3%. Brent oil delivered the biggest overnight move at -2.1%. S&P futures are trading at +0.2%. Your market morning in one card, every weekday.

Calculating your asset-to-debt ratio shows how many times your balance sheet covers total debt, and the arithmetic is simpler than assumed. The calculation: Step 1: Identify your total assets ($1,348,043). Step 2: Identify your total liabilities ($144,000). Step 3: Divide total assets by total liabilities ($1,348,043 / $144,000). Mine lands at 9.4x asset-to-debt ratio on my net worth tracker, leaving total net worth at $1,204,043 with 89.3% equity ownership and 36% liquidity. What number do you get when you run this on your figures tonight?

With oversold tech rebounding, Nasdaq 100 futures ($QQQ) had their biggest 71-hour rise since 23 September. Futures are up 3.3% to 27,963.00. This is a full market surge, not just tech. Futures sit 0.6% below their 200-day average of 28,124.09.

avalanche-2:native down 4.5% to $8.58, about 7× a normal hour's move, 5.7% above its $8.11 200-day average. While Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are up 3.2% and 2.4%, Bitcoin slipped 1.1%. Heavy volume 5.5×, Schwab adding Avalanche to spot crypto trading. Who needs a crash?

$MTB is the sharpest bounce off the 200 DMA I have seen this week. When a stock pulls back to its 200-day moving average and turns up, it signals that long-term buyers are stepping in to defend the trend. Here is the live data from the S&P 500 scan. • $MTB - Trading at $224.71, sitting just 0.6% above the rising 200 DMA. It was 19% higher three months ago, showing a tight consolidation. • $AME - Trading at $240.14, 2.5% above the 200 DMA. Momentum is stronger than 66% of the index, with a clean 17% run prior to this dip. • $DELL - Trading at $348.62, 3.2% above the 200 DMA. It leads the rally, with momentum stronger than 99% of the S&P 500. In the top panel of the attached chart, you can see the price hugging the dashed 200 DMA line while the 50 DMA above it begins to flatten. $MTB is the cleanest setup of the three: it is wrong on a daily close below $223.38, just 0.6% under here. I expect $MTB to hold that level. I will report back next Monday on whether it stayed above $223.38.

$QQQ is up 2.8% in the last 66 hours, about 14 times a normal hour's move. With the yen carry trade link to Nikkei in focus, the whole market is up 1.9%. This could mean more volatility.

Capital pulled out of tech and energy this week and flooded straight into healthcare and defensive cash flow. • Healthcare $XLV sits deep inside OUT IN FRONT, with its line driving up and right as steady balance sheets draw in heavy flows away from high-beta growth. • Energy $XLE completed a major quadrant cross from OUT IN FRONT straight into LOSING STEAM, its tail dragging down and left as commodity momentum fades out. • Tech $XLK remains stuck inside LEFT BEHIND, with its trajectory pointing down and left as mega-cap hardware continues to lag the S&P 500 $SPY. Looking at the attached chart, the cluster of tails drifting into the top right corner shows capital running to safety, suggesting traders are pricing in a clear macro slowdown ahead. On this map I would rather stay overweight $XLV than hold $XLK, and $XLK curling back up into CATCHING UP would prove me wrong. Tech will continue to drag the broader market lower through month end unless $XLK flips its tail back to the right before next week. Every Monday: where the money rotated, sector by sector.

$NVDA $186.64, board's spy probe is a market stunt, not a death knell. Stock up 2.8% but still 8.7% under its 200-day average, and the "50-50 job odds" hype fuels short-term buying. What will investors do when the board's findings finally hit the books?

At the 45th percentile of their 12-month range, Nasdaq 100 futures just fell 0.5% to 26,934.00. Moving about 3 times a normal hour's pace with an anti-AI wave in focus feels overdone. It remains far below its 200-day average of 28,118.96.

Bitcoin logged the largest overnight move with a drop of -2.2% on an empty US calendar day. Brent oil also traded lower, down 1.4% since the last US close. Gold moved higher over the same period, gaining +1.1%.

$USO sits 17.8% above its 200-day average while US-Iran talks stall out. Oil markets clearly aren't betting on a diplomatic breakthrough anytime soon. This could mean higher fuel costs hit shipping rates first.

ethereum:native down 4.3% to $2,126.63, its steepest one hour drop since 25 June, about 25× a normal hour, with seasonal returns chart in focus. Bitcoin slipped 1.6%, so the pain is mostly Ethereum's. Verdict: a heavy volume dip testing the $2,154.53 200-day average.

The Nasdaq Composite peaked at 136.84 on January 11, 1973. It fell 59.9% to 54.87 on October 3, 1974, 21 months after the peak. On September 7, 1978, 5.7 years after the peak, it got back to its old high. Do you buy the next 60% drawdown, or wait for a new peak?