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ARM is very expensive on any near-term basis and the stock can and does regularly rally 2-4x and then sell off 30-50%. There's little float out there so it will be volatile until there is more float to trade on the public markets. I found a hard copy of the 50 Stocks For The App Revolution book I wrote fifteen years ago and ARM was one of the 9/10 rated stocks that I had owned back then. The market cap at the time that I was buying ARMH (that was its symbol back then) and writing about it in that book and for TradingWithCody.com followers was... $8 billion. It's now $230 billion. I wish it hadn't been taken private along the way so I could have just kept those shares all these years. Anyway, long-term I still fully believe this is a great investment like I did back in 2011 when I wrote that book and first bought it. But it's got a lot more of its upside potential priced into the stock right now than it did back then and that means it can swing up and down with magnitude like it has been. $ARM #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

Cerebras is an unprofitable start up that could scale revenues 10x or more in coming years, so there's a lot of hopium and angst in this kind of a stock. But lately, Cerebras has been slammed so hard because of OpenAI’s weaker than expected revenues. It shook any stock that depends on OpenAI for a big part of their backlog and/or revenues (Coreweave and Oracle got hit hard too). I don't think CBRS needs OpenAI as its biggest customer because the Cerebras technology is so mind-blowing, efficient and faster than most of its competitors and I expect Google, Meta and others to join Amazon in using/selling Cerebras technology in coming months and years anyway. $CBRS $GOOGL $GOOG #OpenAI $CRWV $ORCL #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

I'm old enough to remember when the Republicans hated Musk and the Democrats loved him. I'm sure the Democrats will talk a big game about how much they're going to punish him, but I've yet to see either party ever really do anything to hurt major corporations worth trillions or hundreds of billions of dollars like Tesla and SpaceX are. Regardless, it's pretty shocking when you step back from partisan propaganda and think about how much more leverage SpaceX has on the US government than the US government has on SpaceX. I mean, SpaceX is the only entity on the planet that can regularly (and cheaply) get cargo and people and defense hardware into orbit and/or deep space. Nasa, China, the EU, etc – can't nobody get to space like SpaceX can. Elon's always making a bet that if his companies can deliver the best products with mind-blowing technologies that his companies will win out over time. That's also how we do Revolution Investing – the best products, the most efficient services/applications/hardware, the most mind-blowing technologies almost always win out over time. That is what I have always focused on and I don't try to game Republican Democrat partisan noise. $SPCX $TSLA #ElonMusk #midterm2026 #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

I'm not a fan of the Trump Socialist approach of messing up incentives at US-based companies when he gives my hard-earned taxpayer money to some cronies. Why people think that Republicans and/or Trump are not socialists in sheep's clothing when their actions constantly prove otherwise is beyond me. Oh, I digress though. No, I don't want to buy WOLF at any price as they have been misleading and/or bad at executing over the years. And I would consider selling any company I own if Trump Republican Socialists and/or the Democrat Socialists take a stake in it. $WOLF #Trump #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

I think CRWV might be okay over time. I still think, as I have been saying for a VERY long time, that the IRENs and other companies that own some rights to electricity contracts that they signed back when they were churning their investors with promises of bitcoin mining profits are not investable. NVDA will be fine with or without CRWV, IREN, CIFR, BTDR and the other small AI infra plays. $CRWV $IREN $CIFR $BTDR #RevolutionaryInvesting #AI @codywillard

Sticking with the hyperscalers is most likely the safer way to invest in AI Compute/Cloud but they might not have the same absolute upside potential. The hyperscaler stocks would likely rip if they were to slow their AI capex growth and the hyperscaler stocks are likely to go up if they keep spending on AI capex because they are getting such good ROI on it. CRWV and other neoscalers are in a bit of a tougher spot as rates go higher. We have plenty of exposure to AI Compute/Cloud with AMZN, META, GOOG and I thought SPCX at $110 looked like a much better bet than CRWV at $85 so we sold CRWV and used the money to buy SPCX. I think on a risk/adjusted basis that made a lot of sense and probably SPCX might actually have even more absolute upside potential over time than CRWV and the other neoscalers even at their maximum potential. $AMZN $META $GOOG $GOOGL $CRWV $SPCX #AI #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

If Anthropic in the next year it will likely do so at around $1.5-1.8 trillion. The stock price a year from when it comes public will largely depend on how its first three quarterly reports go and how the revenues and margins are scaling. I've no clue about how it will it be valued in one year from its IPO. On the other hand, I expect that competition will be impacting Anthropic much more tangibly over the next three to five years and that Anthropic could be cut in half or worse over that time frame. #Anthropic #RevolutionaryInvesting #AI @codywillard

Cerebras designs around the need for HBM to avoid that wildly expensive bottleneck and the speed of AI inference on the Cerebras platform is unrivaled. Except for Nvidia's latest Groq-based platform. I think there's plenty of room for each company. Cerebras is just scaling as fast as they can as the demand for their technology is through the roof. But it will indeed take some time for them to scale and the stock will remain volatile for many months to come, I would expect, even as I think it will go higher as the fundamentals become clearer. $CRBS $NVDA #AI #HBM @codywillard

Oracle borrowed tens of billions of dollars to buy back their stock in years past and that's got their balance sheet stressed now as they borrow hundreds of billions to build AI datacenters. SpaceX is its own beast with its much more monopolistic tendencies in space and has a two trillion market cap with which they recently raised a record amount of money and could do another secondary at some point to raise lots more cheaply along with hitting the bond markets. Avago is fishy IMHO and I avoid it. In general, I don't mind large established companies with huge cash flows for many years to start borrowing money to finance huge growth and immediate ROI which is what the hyperscalers are doing. $ORCL $SPCX $AVGO #AI #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

Here's what I wrote for Trading With Cody's subscribers about Nvidia the day I first bought it back in 2016: "Nvidia has about $5 billion in cash offset a little bit by about $1.5 billion in debt. The company’s market cap is $17 billion and analysts expect another year of low single digit growth for the topline as it will take a few quarters still to get the VR and auto-car businesses up to scale and even a year or two more after that to go mainstream. The stock is trading at about 20x next year’s earnings on a P/E basis which goes down to about 18 when you include the $3.5 billion net cash (about $6 per share). We also get a 1.5% dividend yield to boot. Nvidia’s got to grow faster than single digits next year for this stock to work." Back then the market didn't believe in Nvidia either. The company's market cap has grown 200x and its profits have grown similarly in the last 10 years. I'd rather buy more NVDA than trim it here. I think it's a very high conviction investment still and the average investor, professional and retail, are underweight NVDA if they own it at all. People ask me all the time, "What's the next NVDA, Cody?" I'm often answering that question with this comment, "NVDA might be the next NVDA." $NVDA @codywillard

Part of my hesitation (I think we could call it "bearishness", not just "hesitation") on Anthropic and OpenAI is because I think each CEO is fishy at best and not someone I would want to bet my money on. Also, I think there might be a bubble in private valuations for tech companies in general and these two names are probably wildly overvalued at this moment in the private markets; even if not wildly overvalued at their respective current valuations, I don't think there's much meat left on those bones. Additionally, open source LLMs seem more likely to win over time than these closed. The very fact that they are pushing to get a global body to oversee US AI is a terrible idea and probably outright evil. Did I mention each of those CEOs make my skin crawl? Blech. #OpenAI #Anthropic @codywillard

The main basis for my Flipping "Never Fight The Fed" on its head is the concept that the Fed typically raises rates in a strong economy when there is competition for capital. And so, yes, I think this current Fed tightening cycle is just about as clear a signal to "Fight the Fed" as usual or perhaps even moreso. Rates have climbed in large part because of four main reasons: Wars/oil prices rising; Endless government deficits and ever bigger government debts from the Republican Democrat Regime; Fed keeping rates below natural levels as usual; competition for capital from the giant boom going on in the US economy. The first and last reasons there are new-ish and the middle two reasons are constants. The Fed, as usual, has to follow the economy and the markets not vice versa.

AI isn’t something to fear. It’s a tool for making society more prosperous. The real question isn’t whether AI will change the world. It’s how much better we can make the world with it. A thoughtful take on the AI revolution, from @CodyWillard: tradingwithcody.com/dont-fea… #AI #RevolutionaryInvesting #economy @codywillard

Q. While technological and AI optimism makes sense long-term, yields aren't just rising because companies want capital—they are rising because the US government is flooding the market with debt. There is massive TSY supply, interest expense feedback loop and no fiscal restraint. Rising yields from organic economic growth are bullish; rising yields forced by sovereign debt supply imbalances squeeze equity multiples. Shouldn’t we be keeping an eye on both economic growth (happening in full force) and the US debt crisis/situation? A. Well, yes, of course we should be keeping an eye on both economic growth and the US debt situation (which, of course, is 100% the fault of The Republican Democrat Regime and their endlessly horrible/socialist policies). But, has anything meaningful changed with the endless debt accumulation and corruption from the Republican and Democrat Regime in the last five, ten, thirty, fifty years? No, they have always spent profligrately and pushed the debt limits as far as they can and they still are. Certainly, the single biggest change in the last few years on the debt markets is the trillions of dollars of demand for capital from the largest companies on the planet to build AI. Covid, also, of course, was a meaningful impact too. Anyway, I'm worried about a million things that can go wrong for the US, the economy, the markets, etc, but I think it would be a mistake to focus too much on the Republican Democrat Regime monetary and fiscal policies which haven't meaningfully changed one iota in my lifetime as the driver of the next major market/economic move. Remember too, my point about how much larger an impact Tech Revolutions have on the markets and economy than the stupid Republican Democrat silliness that they always peddle to us. The AIRS Revolutions are the biggest Revolutions in more than a century and that's going to be the primary story and driver of rates, economies, society, etc for the next 10-20 or even 50 years, IMHO. #AI #AIRS #RevolutionaryInvesting #economy @codywillard

Q. I’m sure you’ve seen the rumors that Anthropic may acquire Decart AI (decart.ai/). While this would be positive for Anthropic and the broader AI ecosystem, I believe it could have a negative impact on $CBRS. What are your thoughts? A. I think Decart needs Cerebras and/or Nvidia Groq and/or Etched and/or another speedy inference engine to work. I don't think Decart inside or outside of Anthropic is a needle mover for The AI Revolution. #Anthropic #DecartAI $NVDA #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

Q. I wanted to get your opinion on AMD’s recent acquisition of Taalas, the Canadian company. My understanding is that the core value Taalas brings to AMD is in inference. Do you think this acquisition changes or impacts the role of CBRS in AMD’s inference strategy? A. I think AMD is desperate to get a decent solution for inference. CBRS is the lead dog, IMHO. $AMD $CBRS #RevolutionInvesting #taalas @codywillard

Q. How do you balance your optimism on earnings growth versus inflation fears and yields spiking? Having a hard time wrap my head around this one. If one thinks that the US will lose control of its fiscal situation, yields will continue to soar and inflation will stay in the 3% zip code, isn’t building a golf position a good move? I acknowledge that AI could be deflationary long term and that could solve a lot of problems. A. Remember how often I explain that we should always FIGHT THE FED. You want to own stocks when interest rates are rising (because they are usually rising along with a strong economy) and we want to be cautious when interest rates go down (because the are usually going in a bad economy). The fact that the long-bond for the US is at its highest levels in decades is a reflection of the incredible economic boom we are living in! #Investing #RevolutionaryInvesting #Fed @codywillard