Observing the evolution of human systems, geopolitics & markets through the Second Law | Knowledge networks • Kardashev Type II
Joined June 2022
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Microsoft has a serious problem. So bad even the health status is not working. It seems the core of the issue is the cloud (above product level).
The systems become unresponsive even though they look healthy:
"Previous status: While the servers we've returned to service initially remain healthy, we've observed that they can become unresponsive again once they begin receiving traffic. We're analyzing diagnostic data from these servers with our networking and platform experts to determine what's triggering this behavior".
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If this will turn out to be true, the US will go the way of Europe with disastrous consequences for the AI tech industry. There is a palpable anxiety in the markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi are not good political predictive markets, so I don't have a lot of confidence in these numbers.
Regardless of the outcome, I think politics should be banned from the betting markets.
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Chamath had probably the most interesting diagram in this week's All-In episode.
The big AI players are beginning to compete against the US Treasury for public funds. This is an unprecedented structural change with implications that are difficult to predict.
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The most compelling argument for SpaceX and Tesla merger is that they share the same core focus: SI and energy.
Cars, robots, satellites, are products that sell to fund the advance of SI and product of energy at scale.
The ultimate goal: Kardashev Type 2 + Mars.
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Worth keeping in mind that since 2000 SOX has vastly outperformed S&P.
This is before the physical SI incoming wave, and before the deployment of SI starclouds.
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Music has already reached Singularity: all songs sound the same in all major cities around the world.
The majority top 25 singers are female, but both male and female use largely a similar style: cynical, laconic, dark, cold. It's utterly depressing.
I challenge anyone to listen 30s of each of the top 25 for the any city. Turn on the lyrics and read them.
Then, just for the sake of the argument, listen to the top 10 1984 and compare. The difference is shocking.
If the cultural trends encapsulate the spirit of the time, 2026 is in a dark, Black Mirror mood.
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