Business Models Matter

Buy stocks with upside you don't have to pay for.

No matter how much work you do on a stock, there's a hard lesson we all learn, eventually: You might be wrong. Admitting that upfront and if frees you to make mistakes, which will happen anyway.

Being an investor isn't a part-time hobby. It permeates every part of your life. You think about investing when watching a movie. You think about investing when you're shopping. You think about investing when you're sleeping. Just ask my wife, this is a blessing and a curse.

Your best investments won't feel smart, they'll feel dumb in the moment. Only in hindsight will "obvious" investments seem smart.

Filter out bad companies (no matter the price) from consideration, and you'll increase your odds of success.

Writing ~3,000 words supporting (and trying to break) the investment thesis for every stock I own has been the most important change I made in 2023.

"My biggest wins have been unexpected. This is intentional, but not predictable." - me, Jan 13, 2024

Your best investments won't feel smart, they'll feel dumb in the moment. Only in hindsight will "obvious" investments seem smart.

📈 My dream investing world: 1️⃣ Inconsistent dividends are OK!💰 2️⃣ Financial statements should read right to left! 3️⃣ Earnings calls on a lie detector. Let's make em really sweat!🔍

The best trade is not to trade at all. Compounding takes time...and patience.

Never bias on a number. $100 $500 $1,000 They're all arbitrary. Ask yourself, how does the company get 10x bigger? How do margins expand? Why is the stock undervalued? The number will follow.

Missing a 100x opportunity to get a 10% better price is a mistake you'll never forget.

The year is 2050. $PLUG is generating $500 billion/year in revenue and free cash flow is a negative $1.2 trillion per year. There are now 900 trillion shares outstanding. Andy Marsh says adjusted EBITDA breakeven is less than a year away.

Maximum Possible Loss on a Stock: -100% Maximum Potential Gain on a Stock: Infinite This is why Asymmetric Investing works.

Focus on 4 things when investing.

$UBER Only ~$0.05 of every dollar spent on Uber ends up as profit/free cash flow for the company.

🚀Asymmetric Investing leans into the advantages we have over the market: 1️⃣Unlimited upside for stock investors 📈 2️⃣Thinking about next decade 📅 while Wall Street thinks about next quarter📊 3️⃣Embracing uncertainty and optionality in business💡 asymmetric-investing.beehiiv…

Compounding $100 at 20% for: 1 Year: $120 3 Years: $172.80 5 Years: $248.83 10 Years: $619.17 20 Years: $3,833.76 30 Years: $23.737.63 "The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily." - Charlier Munger

Sentiment is correlated with a stock's price. If you want to beat the market, buy great companies when the sentiment around them is bad.