Space, football and freedom: I will not trade any of them. 🇨🇦 Proud Canadian 🇨🇦
The 'Verse
Joined March 2015
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Mark my words: Trump will use this sanctions law to impose tariffs on Canada or Europe. He already tariffed us pretending that we exported fentanyl into the US, now he will say that we buy Russian oil.
Meanwhile, no sanctions on China or India.
youtube.com/watch?v=6F-CdzNx…
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This is hilarious. "Rising costs and tighter budgets are reshaping how Canadians travel this summer, with many choosing destinations closer to home while still holding onto plans for long-haul trips to Europe."
The elephant in the room...?: 🚫🇺🇸
ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/do…
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14) Just a stream of conscience. The rest of us (Canada, Europe, ANZ, Japan, SK and others) hopefully can build something new. But our children and grandchildren will not inherit a better world, quite the opposite. End
13) I hear Americans talking about a Democrat win in 2028 or whatever. That means nothing, the damage is done, and it's so deep not one president will be able to fix it. And Trumpism will not disappear with Trump, it never does. 14/n
12) Chinese dominance over most of the world's economy for a period (China also has issues that might bring a crisis in a few years). The US reduced to deal with its own issues and maybe even internal turmoil. 12/n
11) Also, forget Taiwan. China will have all the advantages and a short window of opportunity. They will use it. If they take or just blockade Taiwan, forget about your chips, your electronics. A new, darker period is rising. 11/n
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10) The US will need to relearn fiscal discipline. Balanced budget, but starting with an astronomical debt level. Forget those fancy weapon systems, forget those tax cuts, forget those cheap homes. Lifestyle will suffer a massive setback. 10/n
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9) Higher Treasury rates means higher mortgage rates, inflation (particularly for imported goods), and massive loss of purchasing power. In other words, massive recession with inflation on top => unemployment rises. 9/n
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8) GCC, China and others not buying US Treasury debt since the dollar is not a reserve currency anymore. Meaning no "exorbitant privilege", higher interest rates in the US to borrow to cover their debt and deficit. It will not be pretty. 8/n
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7) Using CIPS instead of SWIFT means US sanctions don't bite that much anymore, for Iran or anyone else. Using RMB means no petrodollar, then no endless US borrowing power through Treasury bonds, then the trillions of US debt will have to be repaid. 7/n
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6) Those tolls the Iranians are going to charge? They will be in Chinese Renminbi (RMB), not in US dollars. They will be cleared through CIPS, not SWIFT. Who is the biggest client of the Gulf states? China. The petrodollar is dead. 6/n
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5) The US will not walk away unscathed. Far from it. US assurances are worth nothing, holding US bases makes you a target without protecting you, US power limitations have been exposed, weapons stockpiles are depleted. But that's not the worse part. 5/n
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4) The GCC and Iran will have to come to some accommodation on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will probably charge a toll, maybe Oman can get something as well. In the meantime, GCC will work to reduce their dependence on the Strait. 4/n
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3) The democratic movement in Iran has been dealt a huge blow. Violent repression + betrayal by the US + bombing by US & Israel. The gov't propaganda associating Israel & US with evil plans against Iran seems now more true than ever. 3/n
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2) The mullahs regime will be left in place, although in a different form. The religious side weakened, the IRGC stronger. It will seem more solid, but in reality the infighting will be brutal. A strong leader might emerge. 2/n
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Iran War - Just a few things to get out of my chest
1) It has been blindly obvious for a while that Trump is trapped in his own mess. Like any toddler, he will just blame someone else, walk away and leave the grown ups to clean up. 1/n
Hoban Washburne 🇨🇦 retweeted
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is.
