Advanced AI systems have crossed an important threshold from commercial software to technologies viewed as strategic national assets, write Josh Richards and Gabe Arrington. justsecurity.org/156218/stra…

I joined Kristie Lu Stout on CNN this morning to discuss Trump’s rejection of Iran’s proposal, what impact could the mid-terms have on Trump’s thinking and whether there is an end game which allows both sides to save face. It remains the case that both sides want this war ultimately resolved and mediators continue their efforts to bridge the gap. Both sides have attempted to use threats to gain leverage, but hard power alone will not end the conflict. But Iran's seven-day proposal differs little from the previous MoU, while President Trump believes his maximum pressure campaign has shifted the balance in Washington's favour. With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning Iran has only two weeks of trading capacity left, Trump appears willing to see whether sanctions deliver further results before deciding between diplomacy and renewed military action. Tehran's statements repeatedly stress that a deal would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while Washington counters that the Strait is already open and oil continues to flow - just not Iranian oil. From Trump’s perspective, time is on his side. The key question, however, is whether Trump's maximum pressure campaign contains a face-saving off-ramp for Iran. Like Trump, Iranian leaders must also convince their domestic audience that they have defended the state and its interests. Without a mechanism that preserves that narrative, Tehran may conclude that escalation is its only route back to leverage. Meanwhile, Secretary Rubio has warned Tehran not to assume President Trump will be constrained after the mid terms, noting that presidential national security authorities provide significant freedom to conduct military operations. The American message is clear: Iran should not assume Washington's options are limited. Ultimately, both sides want a solution, but both also need to project strength, preserve credibility, and convince domestic audiences they emerged from the conflict victorious. The challenge is finding an end game that allows both sides to claim that success without further military escalation.

I'm honored and thrilled to share that I have been selected as an Obama Leader for the 2026–2027 @ObamaFoundation's USA Program! I was drawn to the program's emphasis on growth, pluralism, & long-arc change, & to a cohort committed to building collective power across differences.

We filed at the U.S. Supreme Court yesterday. An Afghan child was orphaned in the war. Her relatives raised her. A Marine judge advocate obtained a Virginia adoption order in proceedings they never knew existed. No family should lose a child that way. Learn more in this 🧵