twarex retweeted
Sellers had their chance
Before the election, bearish information was still pushing bitcoin:native into new lows. Sellers were getting paid for every new reason to worry, until now.
Crypto recovered broadly after a support break scare.
That's a change worth watching patiently, without jumping to bullish conclusions.
I suggest you read yesterday's post below.
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Stocks also bounced, and the dollar and yields eased. So we can't credit BTC's recovery entirely to stronger crypto demand.
The next test is whether buyers can defend that recovery even when conditions turn against them again.
If they can, we're getting closer to the kind of market where a good long starts forming before everyone feels bullish.
One failed breakdown is encouraging, repeated failures would tell us something bigger.
teapaw.org/TwarexD/status/2117636…
Your next trade already started
At some point, the next bearish headline stops being enough to push price lower.
That is when the trade deserves your full attention.
The better trader notices earlier that sellers are still hitting the market, but price is no longer responding the same way.
That does not mean the bottom is in.
It means support may be starting to absorb the selling.
And that is often where risk/reward starts changing before the chart looks bullish again.
Sellers had their chance
Before the election, bearish information was still pushing bitcoin:native into new lows. Sellers were getting paid for every new reason to worry, until now.
Crypto recovered broadly after a support break scare.
That's a change worth watching patiently, without jumping to bullish conclusions.
I suggest you read yesterday's post below.
-----
Stocks also bounced, and the dollar and yields eased. So we can't credit BTC's recovery entirely to stronger crypto demand.
The next test is whether buyers can defend that recovery even when conditions turn against them again.
If they can, we're getting closer to the kind of market where a good long starts forming before everyone feels bullish.
One failed breakdown is encouraging, repeated failures would tell us something bigger.
teapaw.org/TwarexD/status/2117636…
Your next trade already started
At some point, the next bearish headline stops being enough to push price lower.
That is when the trade deserves your full attention.
The better trader notices earlier that sellers are still hitting the market, but price is no longer responding the same way.
That does not mean the bottom is in.
It means support may be starting to absorb the selling.
And that is often where risk/reward starts changing before the chart looks bullish again.
Your next trade already started
At some point, the next bearish headline stops being enough to push price lower.
That is when the trade deserves your full attention.
The better trader notices earlier that sellers are still hitting the market, but price is no longer responding the same way.
That does not mean the bottom is in.
It means support may be starting to absorb the selling.
And that is often where risk/reward starts changing before the chart looks bullish again.
🤖 Made with AI
Stranded Longs
Sitting in longs here isn't necessarily a bad position. But it will suck and it will test your patience.
That's because you can't rely on bitcoin:native simply turning bullish again.
You may have to depend on forced buyers, shorts covering into a squeeze, and those buyers may only appear after price goes deeper into the red.
That creates an uncomfortable setup,
the market can remain structurally intact while still forcing longs through enough pain to sell near a local bottom.
The positive side is that crypto market structure has held up reasonably well so far.
Nothing has clearly broken, but time is becoming part of the problem.
The longer BTC stays trapped in this mixed state, the more traders who bought the late rally become potential sellers into the next move higher.
2/
So BTC doesn't just need buyers, it needs buyers strong enough to absorb people waiting to get out.
Once that first supply is cleared, a reclaim of roughly $82K would improve the picture, but the harder test comes next.
Around $85k, where it has already been rejected four times this year.
For price to move through that region sustainably, something in the market state has to change enough for investors to see $85K as a fair or attractive price to buy not simply a good price to exit.
twarex retweeted
Alts trade alive and well
But don’t confuse a calmer alt market with a cleared alt market, let alone a solid one.
The broader alts context is important:
Since the October 10th event, BTC and ethereum:native liquidity have repaired much better than the broad alt market,
but maller alts still trade on thinner books, weaker depth and less reliable spot support.
In recent months the alts rally went from healthy broadening to weaker leadership with leftover positions acting like support:
late September:
broad alts were working. Participation was strong, and the move looked mostly spot led rather than driven by leverage.
end of September:
breadth started fading, fewer names were still making highs, but leverage had not become a system wide problem yet.
early October:
Alts leadership weakened faster than positioning did, they stopped outperforming broadly, but traders kept a lot of exposure open.
mid October:
the market became fragmented. Some names were frothy, but the whole alt market was not in full euphoria.
After the BTC sweep near $80K: prices and speculative heat reset, but a lot of open positions remained.
on-chain data shows that a lot of positions are still there. So the market looks less hot on the surface, while still carrying risk underneath.
The overview is that broad alts are now trying to reclaim an important liquidity area (chart),
the same kind of that failed in 2025, and far below the real peak conditions seen in the bull market and the Trump trade run
twarex retweeted
When next short squeeze
Nothing better than a good old short squeeze to catch us all off guard.
This time, let's see when it could occur, and be more prepared for when it happens again.
It will be psychologically challenging, with the main behavioral risk being selling in loss at a local low.
--------
So right now, bitcoin:native is sitting around the exact area where both bulls and bears think they’re about to be proven right.
Bulls see a sweep around $80k,
Bears see the range finally failing
For the trade, that argument is mostly noise,
what matters is who gets trapped next.
Right now, BTC still carries plenty of leverage and there are meaningful short-liquidation pockets above price.
But those shorts are not trapped yet, but are very likely to at lower levels where longs get liquidated and confident shorts pile in.
Routine stuff if you ask me.
So the more interesting path can look like this:
$79k breaks > longs flush through ~$78.7k–$77.3k > shorts rebuild > BTC stops making clean downside progress > ~$77.6k is reclaimed > $79k–$80k comes back
in this case the market recruits bearish capital and then invalidated the reason that capital entered, with a typically bullish information that surprises the market.
When next short squeeze
Nothing better than a good old short squeeze to catch us all off guard.
This time, let's see when it could occur, and be more prepared for when it happens again.
It will be psychologically challenging, with the main behavioral risk being selling in loss at a local low.
--------
So right now, bitcoin:native is sitting around the exact area where both bulls and bears think they’re about to be proven right.
Bulls see a sweep around $80k,
Bears see the range finally failing
For the trade, that argument is mostly noise,
what matters is who gets trapped next.
Right now, BTC still carries plenty of leverage and there are meaningful short-liquidation pockets above price.
But those shorts are not trapped yet, but are very likely to at lower levels where longs get liquidated and confident shorts pile in.
Routine stuff if you ask me.
So the more interesting path can look like this:
$79k breaks > longs flush through ~$78.7k–$77.3k > shorts rebuild > BTC stops making clean downside progress > ~$77.6k is reclaimed > $79k–$80k comes back
in this case the market recruits bearish capital and then invalidated the reason that capital entered, with a typically bullish information that surprises the market.
2/
The $77.6k prime trap zone is especially important here,
it is the actual true market mean, roughly the average cost basis of active investors,
and the main structural recovery boundary beneath the $80k–$81.5k institutional defense zone.
A bullish market information that arises while in this area will have a relatively high impact on price, that can ignite a short squeeze campaign.
The challenge for traders will be psychological, mostly translating into selling in loss at a local low.
Alts trade alive and well
But don’t confuse a calmer alt market with a cleared alt market, let alone a solid one.
The broader alts context is important:
Since the October 10th event, BTC and ethereum:native liquidity have repaired much better than the broad alt market,
but maller alts still trade on thinner books, weaker depth and less reliable spot support.
In recent months the alts rally went from healthy broadening to weaker leadership with leftover positions acting like support:
late September:
broad alts were working. Participation was strong, and the move looked mostly spot led rather than driven by leverage.
end of September:
breadth started fading, fewer names were still making highs, but leverage had not become a system wide problem yet.
early October:
Alts leadership weakened faster than positioning did, they stopped outperforming broadly, but traders kept a lot of exposure open.
mid October:
the market became fragmented. Some names were frothy, but the whole alt market was not in full euphoria.
After the BTC sweep near $80K: prices and speculative heat reset, but a lot of open positions remained.
on-chain data shows that a lot of positions are still there. So the market looks less hot on the surface, while still carrying risk underneath.
The overview is that broad alts are now trying to reclaim an important liquidity area (chart),
the same kind of that failed in 2025, and far below the real peak conditions seen in the bull market and the Trump trade run
..So yes, alts are definitely worth scanning for trade setups
but the trade is still more of an old rebuild attempt than reliable near term expansion bidding.
If bitcoin:native stabilizes and real spot demand returns, the leftover positioning can become upside fuel.
If it weakens first, that same positioning can become the next liquidation layer.
twarex retweeted
BTC survival & the death of the breakout
BTC’s structural recovery is still alive, but its first attempt to turn that recovery into sustained expansion failed.
It's important to remember how your X timeline was confident about the breakout that didn't happen (first).
CPI exposed the weakness, but didn't cause it. That distinction matters for the trade.
The macro pressure has already started easing somewhat.
Yields and the dollar pulled back after the initial CPI shock as Fed officials tempered immediate tightening expectations..
So bitcoin:native now gets a cleaner test.
If macro pressure eases and BTC still cannot recover real demand, the weakness becomes much more crypto specific.
Here's how it should look if look if we get:
Stabilization:
$81K–$83.3K absorbs selling, spot improves, recent holder selling cools.
Recovery:
BTC reclaims $85.5K–$86.75K with stronger spot/ETF participation.
Deterioration:
$81K fails and forced selling keeps building.
Structural damage:
A sustained break below the ~$77.2K True Market Mean (average market price)
The useful framing is simple, the CPI selloff is not the verdict. BTC’s ability to rebuild demand after the shock is.
After all, if the crypto market deteriorates followed by structural damage, a liquidity reset is more than likely to offer you that entry you previously missed and chased.
Bet on resets, it's the most consistent feature of the market. BTC will lead again.
teapaw.org/TwarexD/status/2107468…
Chill Pill
The wait for meaningful upside will be underestimated
1/
The bullish environment is maturing, you can't trade the way you did weeks ago.
ETF demand has cooled from its recent burst and a profit taking regime just starting to form.
Macro is less risk conducive now. For one reason,
the weak payroll report reduced immediate Fed pressure, but long yields remain exceptionally high and the dollar stayed firm after all.
BTC can climb on genuine demand, but the next market leg requires buyers to absorb profit taking, sustain gains and keep participation going under the increasingly capital conditions.
That makes the move meaningful rather than reflexive.
BTC survival & the death of the breakout
BTC’s structural recovery is still alive, but its first attempt to turn that recovery into sustained expansion failed.
It's important to remember how your X timeline was confident about the breakout that didn't happen (first).
CPI exposed the weakness, but didn't cause it. That distinction matters for the trade.
The macro pressure has already started easing somewhat.
Yields and the dollar pulled back after the initial CPI shock as Fed officials tempered immediate tightening expectations..
So bitcoin:native now gets a cleaner test.
If macro pressure eases and BTC still cannot recover real demand, the weakness becomes much more crypto specific.
Here's how it should look if look if we get:
Stabilization:
$81K–$83.3K absorbs selling, spot improves, recent holder selling cools.
Recovery:
BTC reclaims $85.5K–$86.75K with stronger spot/ETF participation.
Deterioration:
$81K fails and forced selling keeps building.
Structural damage:
A sustained break below the ~$77.2K True Market Mean (average market price)
The useful framing is simple, the CPI selloff is not the verdict. BTC’s ability to rebuild demand after the shock is.
After all, if the crypto market deteriorates followed by structural damage, a liquidity reset is more than likely to offer you that entry you previously missed and chased.
Bet on resets, it's the most consistent feature of the market. BTC will lead again.
teapaw.org/TwarexD/status/2107468…
Chill Pill
The wait for meaningful upside will be underestimated
1/
The bullish environment is maturing, you can't trade the way you did weeks ago.
ETF demand has cooled from its recent burst and a profit taking regime just starting to form.
Macro is less risk conducive now. For one reason,
the weak payroll report reduced immediate Fed pressure, but long yields remain exceptionally high and the dollar stayed firm after all.
BTC can climb on genuine demand, but the next market leg requires buyers to absorb profit taking, sustain gains and keep participation going under the increasingly capital conditions.
That makes the move meaningful rather than reflexive.
twarex retweeted
The trappy state of Alts
Smaller Alts are currently hot while more decent ones are in reparation mode.
Most will see it as a bullish rotation, but the overall conditions makes it more of a very late phase alts rally.
This can keep on ripping, but It can also break quickly.
I've seen this behavior a few of times already,
for example like in Jan. 2025, and always after a period of very strong alts performance, a deeper and sudden pullback always followed, crushing gamblers lacking overview.
Commonly ethereum:native & bitcoin:native show early signs of regaining leadership it lost when alts were popping.
indicating that those who caught the BTC-ETH-large cap early rally first are starting to rotate back to safety..
Like what facts are showing now. And these guys on the other hand have good overview..
Currently:
BTC still holds the strongest quality bid.
ETH is stabilizing, but not leading.
Large caps are clearly weaker
All while small but selected alts are still running hot.
And this setup deserve more attention and caution rather than participation.. in principal.
The trappy state of Alts
Smaller Alts are currently hot while more decent ones are in reparation mode.
Most will see it as a bullish rotation, but the overall conditions makes it more of a very late phase alts rally.
This can keep on ripping, but It can also break quickly.
I've seen this behavior a few of times already,
for example like in Jan. 2025, and always after a period of very strong alts performance, a deeper and sudden pullback always followed, crushing gamblers lacking overview.
Commonly ethereum:native & bitcoin:native show early signs of regaining leadership it lost when alts were popping.
indicating that those who caught the BTC-ETH-large cap early rally first are starting to rotate back to safety..
Like what facts are showing now. And these guys on the other hand have good overview..
Currently:
BTC still holds the strongest quality bid.
ETH is stabilizing, but not leading.
Large caps are clearly weaker
All while small but selected alts are still running hot.
And this setup deserve more attention and caution rather than participation.. in principal.