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UNC Fun Fact of the Day
For those of you on team "time the market" just make sure you get the timing right. For 2026 this definitely seems to be the case since the majority of gains occured from from March - June.
You make 80% of your profit in essentially 30-50 trading days in any given year.
The investor advantage is that there are typically more green days than red days (except 2022).
The data below is for $SPY
The fakest thing I have seen today.
When I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I thought when unemployment was low, GDP was hi, household income rose, it meant everyone was winning.
Not true.
The American economy has decoupled the economic progress of asset owners from wage earners to such a degree that broad based measures of success are no longer reliable measures of progress.
This single issue of asset ownership vs progress of wage earners will be the defining issue in all future elections.
Other issues will get caught in the interpretation (price of eggs, Iran war, price of gas etc) but the candidate that realizes that those are downstream of asset vs wage earners and gets their messaging focused on it will win.
No amount of money spent in an election or gerrymandering will change this outcome.
That is what I learned on Nov3.
I am just going to leave this out there for people to noodle on.
~$1M short-term trading profit (ordinary income) for MFJ in 2026: federal tax ~$280k + NIIT 3.8% ~$28.5k = ~$308.5k total. Take-home ~$691k (no SE/SS tax on securities gains; state taxes extra).
That is a strong start but not enough alone for a family of 3 with a young child to retire at 40. Modest annual costs (rent, food, healthcare without employer coverage) run $90-120k. At a 3.5-4% withdrawal rate for a 50+ year horizon you need $2.5-3.5M invested.
To reach that after-tax you would need roughly $3.5-5M+ pre-tax trading profits (depending on years, brackets, and compounding).
Ok X since the weekend is for food and sports what are the favorite teams across any sport and last death row meal.
Favorite Team
San Francisco 49ers
Favorite Food
Steamed Dungeness Crab 🦀
Start of Dungeness crab season on the Best Coast has been delayed prob till Jan. This is from last year.
Why aren’t there more jump ball WR/TE that use to play basketball for red zone only. There has got to be a ton of 6’ 11 dudes that can jump out of the gym just for red zone only.
Run to a spot in the end zone and high point. Corners are 5’11.
If you have no interest or path to make OCR is it still worth paying the $8 month for the blue checkmark.
You can turn off being tagged in those annoying WhatsApp scam in the setting and privacy in your account.
Unc says what Luka Doncic and Wemby have been doing is one in a lifetime. You don’t see players like that very often.
