“No ROI on AI”….. My guy, $MSFT is cutting 27% of its employees and growing 18% YoY… they expect to continue that rate of growth with 27% fewer employees….. The ROI is in fact, massive

As I’ve said, AI is way cheaper than humans, way smarter than humans, way more persistent…. The autonomous enterprise is coming. Margins of companies on the forefront will explode higher… the cuts are just beginning, they will be deep at companies with an AI forward approach (ie companies that will win) Diffusion is happening. Big orgs move slower because of internal politics, but it’s happening across industries. The hallowing out will be dramatic….. This will cause a lot of issues… rich getting richer, unemployment up, rates down (less inflationary pressure from labor market), stocks and real estate go higher, virtuous cycle up. Many will get left behind. Socialism will rise

Strangely, it seems the smartest people in the world who invented AI actually have a better understanding of unit economics and business than the financial advisors on CNBC telling you that they're cautious on AI and could be bubbly xitter.cf/BitcoinAIGuy/status/21…

As someone who is both a heavier user of AI tools and oversees headcount, budgeting, forecasts, etc. I can confirm that the labor force is going to get hollowed out. It’s going to get bad, but it will lead to a lot of entrepreneurship. It will be the worst in marketing, finance, accounting, and customer service. Sales will likely get hurt too, but to a lesser degree. Diffusion will be quickest in the companies that want to win.

Remember in June/July all of the idiots on the timeline saying $meta doesn’t have demand for its chips and will be cutting capex? I do. Well today they’re raising $35B to buy more chips because they’re short….The misdirection in AI has been insane.

Cannot disagree with this more. If you can’t understand that AI is 25x cheaper than employees and is infinitely persistent, you simply aren’t using the coding tools. Autonomous enterprise is going to be a term that’s used a lot more in the coming 12-18 months. Then the layoffs will accelerate. This is obvious to anyone using the tools…. Moreover rising prices are also obvious over the next few years

Stealing companies is a serious crime $fnma $fmcc @pulte @SecScottBessent @realDonaldTrump @howardlutnick @DonaldJTrumpJr @BillAckman

The viral Apollo charts claiming "AI spending is just circular VC money" are a masterclass in financial data misdirection. Here is why the narrative collapses the moment you look under the hood: 1. The Ultimate Selection Bias (The Ramp Dataset) Apollo’s data comes from Ramp corporate card swipes. Who charges compute on a corporate credit card? Seed and Series A/B tech startups. Who does NOT? JPMorgan, Walmart, Apple, or the DoD. Real Fortune 500 enterprise spend flows through multi-million-dollar negotiated master service agreements via AWS Bedrock, Azure, or Google Cloud Marketplace—not an expense card. Running corporate card data to measure global enterprise AI adoption is like surveying a Y Combinator cafeteria to track global dietary habits. 2. A Basic Math Trick: Power Laws Exist Everywhere Apollo highlights that the top 10% of firms account for 95.6% of OpenAI and Anthropic spend. Sounds terrifying until you glance two lines down on their own table: the top 10% of firms also account for 95.7% of standard cloud computing and 91.9% of paid ads. Corporate spend is logarithmic. A 5,000-person company naturally spends 500x more on infrastructure and CRM than a 10-person shop. Framing standard enterprise power-law distributions as an "AI-specific bubble" is intellectually dishonest. 3. Intentional Wordplay "80.4% of the top 1% of AI spenders are VC-backed" does NOT mean 80% of total industry revenue comes from VC startups. It means within a startup card dataset, the heaviest spenders are venture-backed labs training models. Meanwhile, Apollo casually ignores the bar directly beside it: the median AI spender is 86.9% non-VC—proving broad, organic adoption across traditional businesses. 4. Follow the Incentives Apollo is a massive private credit and alternative debt titan. Their house macro view thrives on convincing institutional allocators that tech equity multiples and venture ecosystems are unstable, steering dry powder directly into senior secured private credit and high-yield asset-backed lending. FUD gets clicks, but using corporate card data from startups to argue that the entire AI economy is fake isn't serious macro analysis—it’s narrative engineering @altcap @GavinSBaker @chamath @friedberg @Jason @DavidSacks @elonmusk @BillAckman

The idea that the ten year yield moving from 4.5% to 5% will kill the AI build out is peak Wall St. brain rot. A 50bps swing does not matter when hyperscalers and labs are fighting a generational land grab where having compute 6 months early is worth $20B in high margin revenue. 50bps on a $50B 1GW data center is $250M. $250M more in interest vs. $20B in high margin revenue. The $250M of interest is 1.25% of revenue. Most data centers are also not 1GW.... The opportunity to buy infrastructure stocks here is massive $crwv $nbis $ORCL $BRUN @GavinSBaker

The “AI is just VCs trading money in a circle” narrative collapses once you look at actual adoption. Revenue growth isn’t dangerously concentrated in a few tech giants - $META cutting 30k internal seats on Claude barely moved Anthropic’s topline by 1%. The bulk of ARR is thousands of real enterprises and SMBs paying for reliable API tokens. Open source won’t kill frontier labs for the same reason Linux didn’t kill AWS: “free software” isn’t free once you have to pay $25k/month on GPU clusters and hire an infrastructure team to keep it alive at 3am. That aint free.

AI Bubble Bois vs Reality…… Reality: Elon $500B-$1T ARR at $spcx next year (per earnings call this week) Jassey (Amazon CEO) we are sold out at AWS in 2027 and a lot of 2028 (per podcast this week) Nikesh Arora (Palo Alto CEO) compute is constrained, I’m a taker of terms not a setter of terms (per podcast today) Sundar Pichai (Google CEO) we have been capacity constrained as they work through new model (Argon) launch (per podcast this week) Jensen (Nvidia CEO) sold out through mid 2028 “Bubble bois”: Average Private Wealth idiot on CNBC…. “Rates up 40bps over past 4 months AI bubble going to blow”….….. Reality: Meanwhile there’s like no financial leverage from the top companies …… Net debt / EBITDA — Nasdaq-100 top names (TTM, reported) NVDA -0.4x (net cash) AAPL -0.3x (net cash) GOOGL -0.3x (net cash) TSLA -2.5x (net cash) META -0.1x (net cash) MSFT 0.0x AMZN 0.2x (~0.8x incl. leases) AVGO 1.4x ORCL 3.4x ← the outlier Nasdaq-100 aggregate: ~0.3x reported 0.6–0.8x lease/SPV-adjusted S&P 500 ex-financials: ~1.5–2.0x ….the dummies can cause a lot of vol, hang in there. Have a great weekend!

One of my favorite things about public market investing is trashing of the top executives like Susan Li (Meta CFO, Stanford, top of her class Morgan Stanley IB, unlimited resources)… you really think that she hasn’t run the dilution math? Hint: she has. Her understanding of unit economics and ROIC is 50x the shitposters. That said and in all fairness to investors, there are lot of mid-market companies with awful CFOs. At the board level, a lot of smaller companies have unbelievably bad representation. $meta

I gotta say, @alexandracooper was once liked by both men and women. That's why she was popular. She is totally isolating the male audience, and also giving women AWFUL advice. This is the top. It will unravel quickly (not that it matters because she has a lot of money), but the decline has started and is accelerating quickly.... Also Sophia Bush married and divorced two men then settled with a woman and is trying to push her agenda on people as "the standard". Getting really tired of these Hollywood freakshows @IfindRetards xitter.cf/MsMelChen/status/21130…