
Shit poster, Investor, Politics, Infrastructure, Humanist. Long $META #SocialDemocracy #atheist
Joined November 2009
- Tweets3.2K
- Following333
- Followers248
- Likes1.4K
Wait - did Netanyahu just admit that there was a restriction on nuclear weapons in place???
THEN WHY DID WE BOMB THEM????
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has now decided to lift the restriction on nuclear weapons and is trying to develop them again. He says based on this, he has now instructed the IDF, Mossad and security agencies to topple the Iranian regime.
"Mojtaba Khamenei decided to follow in his father's footsteps. He has taken the safety off, and Iran is once again trying to develop its weapons of death," Netanyahu said minutes ago.
"There is only one way to remove this threat once and for all, to topple the regime in Iran," he adds.
"We are ready to strike you with full force," Defence Minister Katz says.
Iranian lawmakers said on Sunday that Mojtaba Khamenei's position on nuclear weapons will differ from his late father's and that Iran must now acquire nuclear weapons.
Prediction - Dems win midterms bigly but Trump calls fraud and institutes measures we’ve never seen before
🚨 BREAKING: Katie Zacharia has been fired as the White House press secretary
tmz.com/2026/10/16/katie-zac…
I’m still sitting on my cash, market looks to be bouncing back up but I’m not ready to put more in
Yet
I’m not necessarily a bear on $LEU, especially at this price, but here is the bear part of my thesis which you should consider if buying (shoutout to Muse)
- **Paying for 2029 today.** Most of the $4.5B backlog converts to revenue in the late 2020s/2030s. ~77x trailing earnings for capacity starting commercially in 2029; even after the 70% drawdown, it's ~50x next year's earnings. Not a bargain yet.
- **The "only HALEU producer" moat has an expiry date.** DOE is deliberately funding competitors: General Matter got the same $900M HALEU award as Centrus and offered 355 metric tons/year vs Centrus's 12. Urenco's Eunice plant got NRC authorization to enrich up to 10% in September 2025, Orano got $900M for domestic expansion, and Urenco's UK cascade comes online 2031–32. Commercial HALEU from multiple players starting 2029 — the bottleneck premium fades as Centrus's economics arrive.
- **The buildout is funded by serial dilution — and it will continue.** They've raised $1.2B in convertibles (Nov 2024, Aug 2025), launched a **$1B ATM program** in November 2025, then priced a **$500M stock-and-warrant offering** in September 2026 that expanded the share count ~13% overnight, with another ~7M warrants at $227–$363 strikes as overhead supply. Free cash flow is -$164M TTM with $350–500M guided capex this year vs a $2.8B market cap. The $2.5B Phase 2 commercial cascade still needs Congressional appropriation or a DOE loan — more raises are coming, and the stock has fallen on every one so far (-16% on the ATM announcement, -24% in two days after the $500M raise).
- **Near-term fundamentals are deteriorating.** Revenue expected to slide $449M → $443M by 2028, net income $78M → $50M; Q1 2026 net income fell 63% YoY; margins compressed 24% → 10.2%.
- **The Russian ban creates a supply hole it can't fill.** Full ban by 2028, before Centrus scales domestic enrichment commercially. Its legacy LEU brokering arm is already stressed: -47% volumes against +45% unit costs.
- **Customer concentration.** A handful of government and utility customers — one loss, renegotiation, or deferral swings revenue sharply.
- **Wall Street is split.** 8 Holds vs 9 Buys; BofA downgraded to Neutral in August 2025 on valuation; targets span $108–$310.
They keep pushing this like they didn’t just throw away all of Biden’s inflation reduction by taxing the shit out of companies through tariffs and starting a dumbass war in Iran.
Dems' affordability crusade collides with eye-popping price tag for socialist immigration plans foxnews.com/politics/first-f…
$META holding the 730s nicely, would like it to hold during the EOD flush but let’s see. I feel like if it revisits the 720s we are on our way back to the 600s
$META starting to cook after hours. Do we see new 52-week highs tomorrow? Side note: what got you to buy META? For me it was Muse. I use it a lot and hardly use ChatGPT now. Even the free version of Muse is substantially better than the paid version of Chat (to meh.
What did I miss in the South Korean markets $SKHY? Was it just the China news that won’t really affect memory?
BelisariusCapital retweeted
I don’t think you have a dog in this fight but if you did you would have shot it.
I’ll take @ellalangleymsic over Kacey Musgraves any day.
And if I’m choosin’ Texas, I’ll take Ken Paxton over James Talarico.










