🚩 When Polymarket or Kalshi says there's a 70% chance something will happen, should we believe it? Excited to share our new paper, just published in PNAS, in which we examined more than ONE MILLION forecasts from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and Metaculus, spanning 12 domains and forecasting horizons ranging from hours to years. The main finding is striking: Prediction markets and collective forecasting platforms are remarkably well calibrated. When they assign events a 70% probability, those events really do happen about 70% of the time. And this pattern holds surprisingly well across different platforms, domains, and forecasting horizons. But there's an important twist. When we looked more closely, we discovered systematic biases in some of the domains where forecasting matters most (wars, elections). For decades, psychologists have documented how poorly humans often reason about probability and uncertainty. Our findings offer an encouraging counterpoint: When judgments and information are aggregated, we can achieve a surprisingly accurate understanding of an uncertain future. That doesn't mean we can predict what will happen next with certainty. But it does mean that we can be remarkably good at estimating how uncertain the future really is. This work was a great collaboration. The data for this project was meticulously collected for years by Justin Dickerson, the project was led by Hilla Shinitzky and Maayan Peer, with @mattansb leading the analyses. 📄 Read the paper: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.26… #Forecasting #Polymarket #Kalshi #DecisionScience #PNAS

Das ist _nicht_ AI? What the heck?!? (die Frage, wofür man das braucht, stelle ich mir jetzt mal nicht, ist mir gerade egal)

Bevor ich bei einem Haufen Verschwörungstheoretiker mit Neonazinähe, die bis zu den Schultern in Putins Anus stecken, anheuere, nage ich mir lieber den Arm ab.

New paper in Contexts laments that biology textbooks reinforce gender inequality by describing how pollen travels to fertilize female plants while female plants wait to receive it. Describing plant reproduction reproduces “dominant cultural ideas about masculinity and femininity.”

Really, @ScienceMagazine, I don’t know why the journal needs to know my racial/gender identity etc….. I guess it’s a very American thing to ask, But my sexual orientation? 😂🫣

Doch.

Rechte hier: ES GIBT NUR ZWEI GESCHLECHTER. Die gleichen Rechten: WER BEI UNS LEBT, HAT GEFÄLLIGST UNSERE GESETZE ZU BEACHTEN. Österreichs Verfassungsgericht: intergeschlechtliche Menschen haben ein Recht auf Anerkennung ihrer Geschlechtsidentität. 😎