@VCurdia

Research Advisor @sffed working on monetary policy and macroeconomics with imperfect financial markets. Princeton Univ. Grad. All views are my own.

 San Francisco
frbsf.org/economic-research/economists/vasco-curdia/
Joined January 2021
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The natural rate of interest helps gauge the economy's health, but estimates are imprecise. My new Economic Letter proposes a medium-run measure that filters out short-term noise while capturing persistent pressures for clearer policy guidance. frbsf.org/research-and-insig… @sffed

Assessing a Medium-Run Natural Rate of Interest - San Francisco Fed

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates...

frbsf.org
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My latest Economic Letter assesses the effects of tighter lending standards on unemployment and inflation.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco@sffed6 May 2024
How might unexpected changes in credit supply affect economic activity? Our latest Letter assesses the effects of tighter lending standards on unemployment and inflation. sffed.us/3QvqOZ9
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My latest #EconomicLetter shows that average #inflation targeting that accounts for expected future inflation could have improved #economic outcomes and reduced #uncertainty in the aftermath of the 2008 #financialcrisis: sffed.us/3HQFco4 | #SFFedResearch #EconTwitter
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Apply to SF Fed Economic Research Visiting Fellow position! rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS…
Vasco Cúrdia retweeted
Huiyu Li@huiyu_li2 Sep 2021
Apply for our RA positions that start in June-July 2022 rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS…
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Alejandro Justiniano was great economist and a wonderful, wonderful man, a true friend. He passed away way too early. I commend RED for the fitting special issue in his memory. economicdynamics.org/volume-…
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Our special issue in memory of Alejandro Justiniano features a wonderful introduction by his friends Leonardo Melosi, @gprimice, and @tamba_NYC Alejandro's work, intellect, spirit, and friendship will forever be with us. To a wonderful human being! sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
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If you are hyperventilating about the risk of a surge in #inflation, this may help (as does breathing out really slooooowly). "Excess savings" are not that excessive and "unlikely to unleash pent-up demand for services" #macroeconomics #monetarypolicy #econtwitter
New York Fed Research@NYFedResearch5 Apr 2021
Analysis on @LibertyStEcon suggests that “excess savings” accumulated by U.S. households since March 2020 are not that excessive when considered against the backdrop of government interventions, and unlikely to drive a surge in demand post-pandemic. nyfed.org/31NOEFK
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Vasco Cúrdia retweeted
Nick Rowe@MacRoweNick10 Apr 2021
I'm so old I can remember 4 (or more, depending how you count them) *different* stories about why the Central Bank raising interest rates would cause inflation to *rise*. Have I thought about this possibility? Oh yes. Let's go through them. 1/n
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Replying to @EEANews @R2Rsquared
Congratulations to Silvana and Ricardo! Your research has made macro a better field.
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Overestimating the level of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, can have greater costs than underestimating it. Our latest #EconomicLetter explains how such policy misperceptions affect #unemployment and #inflation: sffed.us/3bl3vNO #SFFedResearch #EconTwitter #RStar
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