Career SPX market maker. See how options move markets with VS3D™ by VolSignals— the only dealer hedging flows platform built entirely by market makers.

Naples, FL
Joined September 2019
Market Makers don't manipulate price— we're trapped by our own hedging requirements. When SPX drifts between long and short strikes, our systems start buying and selling futures in ways that create predictable paths. (short thread)
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VolSignals retweeted
Oct 23rd 7650 7750 put spread
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Oct 23rd 7650 7750 put spread
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Last call See you in onboarding 🍻 volsignals.com/rtm
Heads up - the next RTM Trial starts Wednesday live signals from a different corner of equity markets, streamed intraday across ES and SPX levels pairs well with the option hedging levels excellent way for futures traders to take advantage of everything we do here
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Signup closing soon for tomorrow's RTM trial if you have questions ask or DM now
Heads up - the next RTM Trial starts Wednesday live signals from a different corner of equity markets, streamed intraday across ES and SPX levels pairs well with the option hedging levels excellent way for futures traders to take advantage of everything we do here
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Heads up - the next RTM Trial starts Wednesday live signals from a different corner of equity markets, streamed intraday across ES and SPX levels pairs well with the option hedging levels excellent way for futures traders to take advantage of everything we do here
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I’d love to model Nasdaq too. There are obstacles to building a position I’d vouch for- that’s the only reason for now.
Replying to @VolSignals
Any chance we can get you start doing this for nasdaq? Being able to correlate the Nasdaq with high beta tech stocks would offer a lot of additional value since not all of us trade SPX.
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Grok makes a great referee
Replying to @SPXVIX @VolSignals
Public posts from VolSignals align with subsequent SPX action on the listed items. Sep FOMC: modeled 7500-7780 range with initial sell to ~7500-7520 then bounce. Actual low ~7508 on Sep 16, then rise to ~7765. CPI: flagged position shape as red flag pre-release. Hot print followed by selloff. Thu bounce target ~7750-60: high 7754, close 7744 on Oct 15. Bearish Oct OPEX week: range held near 7650-7800 bounds, week closed lower after testing 7632 low. Bounce >7650: level held post-OPEX; Mon open higher from Fri 7659 close. Levels tracked the flows as described.
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Hah love this
Replying to @VolSignals
@grok verify all of this for anyone doubting the quality work @volsignals produces
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Imagine having accurate positioning data and the confidence that comes from knowing you’ve learned how to read it from those who have managed the positions they model Our Sep FOMC path was 🎯 Our CPI red flag read was 🎯 Our Thursday bounce target was 🎯 Our Friday AM target was 🎯 Our bearish Oct OPEX week read was 🎯 Our read on a bounce > 7650 was 🎯 “Objective truth” should give you tangible, tradable insight into probable outcomes.
7650 is still THE level to hold in the SPX If we open +25 on Sunday night then a weekly close at 7790 looks more likely.
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Monday Morning FYI Re-Post You guys have lots of good choices for following experts on SPX (e.g. @VolSignals). I'm going to lock in on and channel energy into tracking/trading the Nasdaq, going forward. Reasons are in the tweet below. Excerpts from the portfolio strategy (Friday's data).👇 Not shown - QQQ options analyses and Nasdaq futures trading approaches. "Alright friends, you have seen the heavy groups, now you will see morning maniac music. Believe me, yeah, it's a new dawn." — Grace Slick, Woodstock
Sun Oct 18 Semi-Major Announcement For the past year I’ve been preoccupied with long-flat strategies for the equity indices. The idea is simple: stay long when a confluence of key data points line up, and step aside into cash ... or alternatives ...when it doesn’t. Part I of a Two-part Tweet: Why I’m moving from an S&P 500-centric workflow ... to a Nasdaq 100-centric one. 1/ Follow the force. The dominant driver of earnings growth and market leadership, now and for the foreseeable future, is technology, and AI above all. The Nasdaq 100 is that driver, nearly undiluted. 2/ The S&P 500 is a bag of a lot of stuff: utilities, staples, REITs, legacy industrials. Much of it isn’t likely to be going anywhere. Owning the whole bag means owning the drag along with the engine. 3/ The S&P’s leadership is already the same handful of tech names. So the question is simple: why hold the driver diluted when you can hold it directly? 4/ Cleaner signals. When one force moves the index, the flows that matter (options positioning, market maker hedging, dark-pool buying) read more clearly on QQQ than on a 500-stock blend. 5/ Less noise, less work. Fewer moving parts means less data to chase and more attention on what matters most. This year the Nasdaq 100 tactical strategy (image excerpt below) is up about 34% vs QQQ’s +16%, with a max drawdown of −6.2% vs −11.7%. Same engine (QQQ), less injury (DD stress). The portfolio imaged below has been live, locally, since Feb. In simplest terms, the signaling methodology looks at volatility based upon the NYU Vol Lab's APMEM volatility forecast research + @Signal_Sigma 's Pro Options and Dark Pools data selects. Of special note ... the sell QQQ signal (derived from the aforementioned) appeared on October 6. [For what might come next ... see xitter.cf/TailThatWagsDog/status…] Right ... soooo.... Long-flat strategies immediately raise the question: when the long QQQ model steps aside, how might that cash be safely employed? The answer to that question relies heavily on macroeconomics ... and that’s forthcoming in Part II.
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VolSignals retweeted
Update Futures did not care
SPX indicated down ~$35 from Friday's close according to Hyperliquid, via TradingView Will futures tell the same story when they reopen?
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Update Futures did not care
SPX indicated down ~$35 from Friday's close according to Hyperliquid, via TradingView Will futures tell the same story when they reopen?
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SPX indicated down ~$35 from Friday's close according to Hyperliquid, via TradingView Will futures tell the same story when they reopen?
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This is hilarious and true
Being an adult is simply saying, “After this week, things will slow down!” Over and over until you die.
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VolSignals retweeted
TLDR: it's not always "short gamma", but perhaps there is something to it this time in explaining the outsized move in the $VIX on Friday. Have seen some good discussion on the behavior of the VIX on Friday when it had a move that far outstripped what would have been expected given the relatively modest move lower in the SPX. Typical VIX beta per 1% move in SPX is 5-10. at one point on Friday, the VIX was up almost 30% on down 60bps in the SPX. that's way out of line vs history. The next question is "why?" here we can approach from two ways. first, "new news"...ie, what did the market learn that put it in risk-off? we can advance all of the usual suspects...pod unwinds, crude, Coreweave, etc. But why such a strong move in VIX relative to SPX? I am always careful to advance the stock answer of "positioning" as a cause. In the derivs space, it can't always be "gamma did it"...there are just so many cross-currents that complicate getting a true read. In the limit, it's as clear as day that positioning did do it on the volmagedon day of Feb 5, 2018. Friday is nothing like that, but it could be the case that dealers hedging Oct VIX calls that they were short might have exacerbated the move. I can say with certainty that dealers are short a substantial amount of these. they are short "VIX gamma" --> they are short calls, long VIX futures and forced to aggressively buy VIX futures as the Oct VIX future rises and the delta on the calls they are short quickly rises. I've simulated this below using the Oct 20 call. assuming a "hedger" was short the call and long Oct VIX future, I show how the hedger would have had to buy and sell VIX futures as the option delta moved. you can see the delta gap from 0.2 all the way to almost 0.7 in a hurry, requiring rapid buying of futures to stay delta-neutral. that delta then quickly falls to 0.4, requiring unwinding of those futures. from the 17 to 25 strike, there are 1.8mln Oct calls open. we have to be careful not to double count, as these could be parts of spreads (ie, the Oct 17-22). we also don't really know how they are being risk managed. it's naive to think that the long side doesn't hedge but the short side does. we also have no insight on all the "dark matter" in VIX...that is, the substantial exposures that result via sell-side QIS desks. It's always very difficult to disentangle the "why" of an outsized move. That said, I'm more open-minded than usual that positioning, coupled with timing (this occurred right near Oct expiry, creating an especially large amount of short VIX gamma) may have played a role. We will see what happens Monday!
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VolSignals retweeted
A reasonable ask - explain the mechanics by which historical trade data influences the future hedging path of an isolated component of an aggregated book
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