Developing Investors with @fink_money | “Anything can happen and it probably will” | Everything’s Gambling | Risk Ain’t a Dirty Word
Spain
Joined July 2016
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This Thursday at 12pm, we’re running a free group call, mainly for British traders and investors.
We’ll be hammering home a few key points about the upcoming market and hedging political insanity.
Like this post and I’ll drop you the link.
Replay will be available but if you don’t show up live I won’t be able to answer your questions 😉
Tim retweeted
What I like is infrastructure related names trading at a discount.
Because it sets up our live portfolio well which we're going to be launching in the next few weeks called the $106tn Trade.
Will drop more info once we have everything set up.
It will be entirely infrastructure focused since that is the largest long term opportunity I can see that is the most solid, required and correlated to other sub themes.
Tim retweeted
I'm not saying France is completely fucked but this spread blowout is seemingly suggesting France is fucked and there's going to have to be ECB intervention asap.
Gold -1.3% on alchemy oversupply fears [REUTERS]
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Interesting replies
"Just realized I've increased my $NBIS position by over 40% in the last 10 days"
1. WTF are you doing sizing up below the 200dma with negative trend/momentum
2. Just realised? Who cares about sizing properly what a joke we just out here winging it lmao lol
3. 458k followers
“Bargain of a century” but the buyers aren’t showing up
In a highly competitive market, one lucky guy has spotted this incredible opportunity that everyone else has missed
$NBIS now trades at 0.66x 2027 ARR.
Bargain of a century.
Market cap is currently $43B.
Deduct $10B for subsidiaries like ClickHouse.
So $33B for the AI Cloud, which will hit ~$10B ARR this year.
They will bring more than 1GW online in 2027.
But let's assume just 1GW.
They could currently sell that capacity for $40-50B.
Let's assume some of it is already assigned at lower prices and some will be sold at higher spot prices.
So, to keep it simple, let's just take the lower end and assume they'll make $40B from it, plus $10B from existing deals and capacity.
Cloud business at $33B while hitting $50B ARR.
So $NBIS is trading at 0.66x next year's ARR.
We are in PEAK FEAR and AI DENIAL right now, NOT bubble territory.
Whoever says Nebius is expensive is outing themselves as clueless.
This is the bargain of a century.
Tim retweeted
Could you imagine if people's houses could be marked to market?
They would cry.
Which is why Brits hate stocks.
Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.
Tim retweeted
youtube.com/watch?v=KiMOCsKb…
HAHAHAHAHAHHA
Anyway we did a webinar last week.
Here's the recording.
Keep an eye on $GOOGL here for a repeat
📉 Currently down about 17% from 52 week highs
Over the past ten years, if you'd bought each time the stock dropped 20% after making a new 52 week high, you'd be very happy with the results:
Sometimes, I feel like you can be a retard and make money $MSFT
This is why I am a big fan of large caps when they're in drawdowns.
Forced buying due to passive complex + moving average + geopol risk perhaps subsiding creates opportunity for anyone discretionary.
And PS. there is no value in trendlines that I find, but some people look at things differently.
All of the above is simply to illustrate:
1. The megacap tendency to go up & to the right
2. Excessive fear/caution results in fewer opportunities, which means lower overall returns
3. You can go a long way with simple strategies based on market tendencies
Obviously there's 100 better ways to approach investing than "buy megacaps every time they drop 20%"
Systems = repeatable processes 👇
xitter.cf/Fink_Money/status/2112…
Someone buys a stock with no real plan.
It drops.
Then the plan gets created on the way down (average down, 'it's a long term hold now', 'the thesis hasn't changed' blah blah blah see Leo Aschenbrenner).
Your process doesn't have to be complex. Honestly the simpler the better imo (take a factor based approach to start).
What it does have to be is intended. You decided what you'd do before you touch any new position or making a new decision.
And it has to be objective, run the same decisions whether you're up on it or down on it - that way you’re ensuring you’re not letting your monkey brain stray.
If you'd do something different ‘just because’ you don't really have one.
Most people I speak to think they have a process. Most of them don't tbh.
We created a quiz to see whether your process is good or not.
Take it 👇
Tim retweeted
When I spoke to Luke on the phone, he was very honest about where he was struggling and what he wanted out of Fink OS.
Over time, he's going to have more questions, and we'll be there to answer them.
Glad to have clients like Luke who are determined to play their small part in fixing Britain's investing problem!
Thanks for joining us, Luke!
