multi strat, delta hedging, acquisition intelligence
Hong Kong
Joined June 2018
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The SaaS dead narrative is being applied indiscriminately to ALL software. But the real losers are point solution SaaS single-purpose tools like DocuSign, Asana, Salesforce. The real winners are platform companies that can become the operating system for AI agents.
$MSFT and $ORCL are platforms, not point solutions. They are the infrastructure layer that AI agents run ON. The irony is the SaaSpocalypse should long-term be bullish for both: more AI agents = more Azure compute = more Oracle database queries = more revenue.
Price creates its own narrative. A stock falling 50% looks like it deserves to fall 50%. Most investors don't dig deeper or waiting for actual numbers because of capex fears.
MSFT reports April 28. ORCL reports June 8. Those are the first moments the market gets real confirmation or denial of whether the infrastructure thesis is correct.
The market does NOT yet know:
1. Whether ORCL's $553B backlog converts on schedule ❓
2. Whether Azure guides 40%+ acceleration on April 28 ❓
3. Whether Copilot adds 20M+ paid seats by June ❓
$MSFT’s embarrassingly weak rally has been almost entirely erased following the bond offering announcement.
this year, it feels like every Mag 7 company is racing to find new ways to extract capital from investors the moment its stock shows any signs of life.
apparently AI is in a massive speculative bubble, according to the same "geniuses" who are terrified of AI valuations, fantasizing about a SaaSpocalypse, and have managed to send investor sentiment from neutral to extreme fear three separate times this year.
quite possibly the first speculative mania in history where goyim is competing to be the most pessimistic.
the only bubble I see is the one forming around the increasingly crowded conviction that AI capex and the infrastructure buildout are doomed, and now you really think that $GOOGL search will be killed by chatgpt adding interactive embeds in responses?
Is positive cash flow in FY2028 a big deal for $ORCL
Potentially enormous, provided management means free cash flow and actually delivers it.
fear and greed is the point of our existence and it's the root of all our desires and pursuits, prove me wrong
my predictions towards 2035-2077 if we will manage to avoid hot WW3 or it will end swiftly with a win of USA and without nuclear winter:
1. AI-powered information and psychological warfare intensifying through 2040 - yes, decadence is just getting started, so cherish this time
2. autonomous drone swarms used in major warfare and most likely being used by terrorists and psychopaths towards civilians or used for revolution $NOC $RTX
3. private technology and security corporations exercising quasi-governmental power, $SPCX $PLTR $MSFT $AMZN $ORCL
4. global alliances become transactional and way less predictable, 50% chance of NATO being dissolved and things like Kiev's republic $SAABY
5. some popular cities become significantly harder to inhabit because of climate stress and infrastructure failure
6. water, electricity, semiconductor manufacturing and infrastructure become strategic weapons $TSM $NVDA, and electricity networks become far larger, smarter, more decentralized, supported by storage and distributed generation
7. cyberattacks can disrupt entire cities without conventional invasions $CRWD
8. widely available medical brain-computer interfaces and star wars style droids, roads and regulations for robo taxis, but little dystopian all of these in many countries
9. p2p trading of #Bitcoin is banned and punishable by 25 years of prison sentence
10. low agency robots become a major industrial workforce, operating factories, warehouses, farms and construction equipment $CAT
11. personalized genetic treatments cure more inherited diseases rather than merely managing symptoms + ai drug discovery, but not very soon
12. military aircraft increasingly operate autonomously alongside crewed aircraft
13. no immortality, no aliens making a contact with us, no singularity, no space colonization, no terminator, no confirmed flat earth, no new crusades, no lizard people exposing themselves, no Jews ending the world, no virus that kills everyone, no flying cars available to civilians, no time traveling by 2077, but maybe in 3077+
every week, the market seems to discover another reason to dump $ORCL by 7–10%, and every rebound runs into the same problem: financing.
Oracle already raised $20 billion through equity issuance, and with its AI infrastructure ambitions requiring substantially more capital, therefore you have to wonder whether every meaningful rally above 180-200 will eventually become another opportunity for dilution or not, but the good thing is that they won't be diluting hard below 180 and there is no one to sell here therefore most likely it's still an accumulation zone unless ai monopolies will somehow destroy and absorb Oracle instead of cooperating with it which makes no sense tbh
by the time the post-midterms $SPY bull run kicks off, i'll be too busy playing WoW Forever and GTA VI to even notice
that ai monopoly thesis I was talking about back at when $MSFT was at ~380 seems to be not properly discovered yet and that's hilarious
Elon Musk is accurately describing a problem that primarily threatens his weaker competitors, while the equity market temporarily treats it as a problem for the entire AI industry, therefore that may trigger precisely the kind of indiscriminate selloff worth exploiting.
@elonmusk If AI infrastructure is doomed, why are you borrowing $40 billion to build it?