The riots in France have multiple complex economic and social causes, but I have to wonder whether the scorching hot summer contributed some to the discontent. In a country where most homes and businesses lack air conditioning, this last summer would have been insufferable.

The longitude of the mean Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is the “true” measure of ENSO b/c this ultimately drives cold season teleconnections (not SST anomalies) Eastward shifted IPWP = stronger El Niño This ye’s El Niño is far stronger than anything we’ve seen in the modern era

I don’t think Europeans fully appreciate what is happening to the European Union right now. The EU is under an extraordinary, multi-front assault, both from outside and from within. And I struggle to think of another period in its history when so many powerful actors had an interest in weakening it simultaneously. Russia has spent years waging hybrid warfare against Europe. Weaponised migration, sabotage, cyberattacks, coordinated disinformation campaigns, bot networks and political interference. The objective is clear: undermine trust in democratic institutions, deepen social divisions and weaken European unity. China has different motivations, primarily economic and geopolitical. A fragmented Europe is easier to pressure, easier to negotiate with individually and less capable of defending its economic interests. And then there is the United States. Perhaps the most disturbing development of all. Under Trump and MAGA, a country that helped rebuild the old continent and then spent decades supporting European integration now has an administration openly hostile to much of what the EU represents. Its own National Security Strategy even calls for cultivating resistance to Europe’s current political direction. Think about that for a moment. Meanwhile, within Europe, parts of the far right and far left amplify these divisions, whether through ideological alignment, political opportunism or outright sympathy for authoritarian regimes. This doesn’t mean Russia, China and MAGA are all following some jointly coordinated master plan. They don’t have to. Their interests increasingly overlap, and Europe’s internal divisions make their work considerably easier. What makes this particularly alarming is what is actually at stake. For all its flaws, the EU remains one of the world’s most consequential projects built around liberal democracy, the rule of law, individual freedoms and cooperation between nations. At a time when authoritarianism is gaining ground and even longstanding democracies are showing disturbing tendencies, that matters enormously. Europe is far from perfect. Its bureaucracy, indecision and inability to act decisively are real problems. But the answer cannot be to retreat into 27 competing nation-states, each too small to meaningfully influence a world increasingly dominated by continental powers. Quite the opposite. Europe needs deeper integration, stronger common institutions, genuine strategic autonomy and the political courage to defend its interests and values. Because fragmentation is precisely what so many external actors want. And perhaps that’s the central irony of our time: people are being deliberately manipulated into believing that the reverse is true — that national identity and sovereignty can only be protected by weakening European cooperation. In reality, a divided Europe is less sovereign, less secure and far easier for outside powers to pressure. Therefore the very thing that will make Europe stronger is the thing its adversaries are working hardest to prevent. A united Europe is a geopolitical power. A divided Europe is a collection of countries waiting to be played against one another.

A heroic drifting buoy recorded quite the deep pressure of 909.4 mb in the southwest edge of #Champi’s eye, implying a central pressure <900 mb. Satellite presentation is at the very upper end for a ~30-35 nm diameter eye — given fast movement, 165 kt is a reasonable estimate!

The Trump administration’s cuts to weather satellites will set the country back nearly a decade, experts say. The loss of data used to observe, forecast and research extreme weather could prevent the US from making major advances in weather prediction in the coming years. cnn.it/4k6eD4o

Berkeley Earth CONUS 2m temperature anomalies for all Super El Niño Decembers since 1870. Merry Torchmas 🔥

In @Nature this week, our new research shows how machine learning can improve weather forecasts two to six weeks out, a timeframe that's historically been very difficult to predict. It's exciting to see the potential of this work to help us better prepare for extreme weather, manage natural resources, and make more informed decisions in agriculture. There's a broader lesson here... the future may not just be about ever-more-capable models, but about building intelligent verification systems around them: systems that learn where models are systematically wrong, reason about cause and effect, and continuously calibrate predictions against reality. Read more: microsoft.com/en-us/research…