JMC Analytics & Polling Founder/Owner Award winning pollster/4x finalist (C&Es Reed Awards) Political strategist/Numbers guy
Louisiana
Joined October 2012
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30.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED.
3.MILLION.EARLY.VOTED.IN.FLORIDA
There's a nice bit of symmetry here.
JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (10/25)
While EV posting is more sporadic over the weekend, early voting is still proceeding at a decent pace. VBM increased from 14.1 to 14.5M/in person voting increased from 13.1 to 15M (FWIW, more have voted in person than by mail now).
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Altogether, we're at 29.5M early votes (46-31% D/R in party reg states). There is a continuing partisan gap between person (+10 D) and mail voters (+18 D). At this point in time in 2022, 22.7M had voted (46-33% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning-this is not a perfect "apples
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JMC discusses what he sees with Louisiana early voting as of Saturday night.
Early voting resumes today and wraps up tomorrow, with Election Day a week from tomorrow. In the first five days of early voting, more than 363 voters have cast ballots, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than 13,000.
louisianaradionetwork.com/20…
(PM) EARLY VOTING COMMERCIAL INTERRUPTION
While I wait for final Sunday updates, these are current EV stats:
TOTAL: 27.93M early votes, 46-31% Dem/Rep
MAIL: 14.14 M, 48-30% D/R
IN PERSON: 13.79 M, 42-33% D/R
FLORIDA - THEN AND NOW
As of this afternoon vs same point in time, 2022
2022: 2.77M voted, 42-39% Rep, +96K Rep
2026: 2.71M, 39.8-39.6% Dem, +4K Dem
JMC'S EARLY VOTE TRACKER (10/24)
While EV posting activity slows down over the weekend, early voting still proceeding at a decent pace. VBM increased from 13.7 to 14.1M/in person voting increased from 11.7 to 13.1M. Altogether, we're at 27.2M early votes (46-31% D/R in
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party reg states). There is also a gap opening up between in person (+9 D) and mail voters (+18 D). At this point in time in 2022, 21.9M had voted (46-33% D/R) (ET Surgeon General's warning-this is not a perfect "apples to apples").
FWIW, we don't yet have data from EV
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EARLY VOTING COMMERCIAL INTERRUPTION
While I wait to see if there are any more Sat updates before publishing the "Tracker", these are current EV stats:
TOTAL: 27.1M early votes, 46-31% Dem/Rep
14 M mail, 48-30% D/R
13.1 M in person, 42-33% D/R
LOUISIANA TURNOUT SPIKE (DAY 5 REVISION)
With Gret Stet EVing, I've almost always seen black turnout spike on Sat and (if a Tues election) the last 2 EV days of Monday and Tuesday. In 2022, black turnout was abysmal and Sen. John Kennedy easily won in the primary:
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