Rex Dwyer retweeted
U.S. Treasury bulls in complete control with 10Y futures taking out key levels. Big volumes have accompanied the move, too. Looks like the highs for yields are in. – at Adelaide, South Australia
Rex Dwyer retweeted
This is an ominous sign
The unemployment rate has moved above its 36-month MA
Such a development has happened 10 prior times since 1952
Every single time, it ended in a recession
Rex Dwyer retweeted
China is not going back to the old ways of doing things. The sooner you recognise this, the sooner you'll stop incinerating capital on every false stimulus headline. – at Adelaide, South Australia
Rex Dwyer retweeted
Temperature check on the economy 🌡
For anyone in the car business - how's your month going?
(Tell us what region you're in and what type of cars you sell)
Hit me!
Rex Dwyer retweeted
Iron Ore is under $90 a ton today . It was over $140 a ton in early January . It’s mostly due to collapsing China demand . Same is happening in copper and oil and a lot of base metals too. This is why markets have 3% Fed Funds priced in out a year
Recession signs...
Cutting auto production.
wsj.com/business/autos/jeep-…
Rex Dwyer retweeted
China warns winter is coming for iron ore miners afr.com/companies/mining/chi… – at Sydney, New South Wales
Rex Dwyer retweeted
Central banks' reckless gamble with low rates fueled a global debt binge. Now, the bill is coming due. Inflation forced their hand, but the damage is done. A painful reckoning awaits. #centralbanks #inflation #debtcrisis #economy
This is the real deal, IMHO... Sell time... The first Fed rate cut is the tell for the BEGINNING of a stock decline. We'll get some selling and buying until the real numbers start coming in September. Then look out below.
My position: I'm Short Cyclical Industrials: $BHP $RIO $FCX $CAT... Long the long bonds, $TLT at $91. Short select tech mega caps, $TSLA, $CRWD (which I believe will see huge headwinds the next year). Still long a few select individual stories. Running Gross 167%(+50% long bonds, not counted usually), net short 40%.
It's happening. I was a year early. We said May, guess it'll be Sept... In any case... Here comes the recession....
Facts about Rate Hikes & Cuts:
▪️ Last rate Hike was 7/26/23, we'll call this the Pause.
▪️ Rate Pause averages 9.5 months over the last 5 rate cycles. Would put is in May.
▪️ In 2018 the Pause was only 7.4 months.
▪️ Equities always rally after a Pause (like we're seeing now).
▪️ Best sectors (in order preference) after Pause are: Materials $XLB, Pharmaceuticals $XPH, $XBI, Staples $IYK and Utilities $XLU.
▪️ Will fed Pivot (rates cut) after Unemployment Crosses Above Inflation rate? We aren't there yet.
▪️ Fed has NEVER pivoted with UR under 4%- like it is now.
▪️ AFTER a Pivot the market averages a 28.3% Decline, taking an average of 14 months to bottom.
▪️ Markets have performed WORSE if the Economy was headed into a Recession after Pivot.
▪️ Markets facing elevated Inflation have also performed worse.
Felt like it was time to simply recap this for everyone given all the euphoria I've been seeing with mentions of soft landing and cheers for a pivot.
Rex Dwyer retweeted
$FCX *FREEPORT SEES 2Q GOLD SALES ABOUT 30% BELOW APRIL 2024 GUIDANCE
How do you say you're in Apple without saying you're in Apple... In the $PXLW conf call..
insidermonkey.com/blog/pixel…
$PXLW Still not expensive at all here at $2.01. Disney deal.... The game is changing. I'm still long.
$CRNT $2.69. Updates and increases guidance. Still long. sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
$CRNT An old 5G position. Been averaging down for 3 years. Avg price $1.64. Rollouts now happening... Finally!
prnewswire.com/news-releases…
