20+ years Buy & Sell side. Macro trends. Not investment advice.

New York, NY
Joined January 2012
ASSET CLASS RETURNS OF STAGFLATION 70s
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
Simon was just found dead.
I am the British whistleblower who reported evidence concerning Howard Lutnick, his links to Jeffrey Epstein, and Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC to the FBI in 2020–21. Listen to the BBC File on 4 documentary about my whistleblower story: bbc.com/audio/play/m002yx47 BBC News: bbc.com/news/articles/c9q28d… I later shared evidence with the House Oversight Committee, which subsequently questioned Lutnick behind closed doors. My disclosures also contributed to regulatory action in the US and UK, including a £96m HMRC tax assessment relating to BGC’s partnership scheme. I believe the true tax exposure is substantially higher. I also reported to the FBI and financial regulators matters involving Cantor Fitzgerald’s Relief Fund and BGC/Cantor’s annual 9/11 Charity Day. The personal consequences of whistleblowing, and the retaliation I say followed, have been devastating for my family and me. Mother Jones previously reported that documents I uncovered revealed a years-long business tie between Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald and Jeffrey Epstein through AdFin, including a 2018 exchange in which Lutnick and Epstein discussed the company directly: motherjones.com/politics/202… motherjones.com/politics/202… Follow me here on X and on LinkedIn. I intend to share more of the evidence and the story behind what happened.
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BREAKING: President Trump says higher US inflation will "pay off" US debt "very rapidly" in response to total US debt rising above $40 trillion. "I know I'm the best in the world... you can pay off the debt through other means. But the one thing that you can do is pay it off through growth, and we've never had growth like this," Trump said. US Treasury yields hit a new high of the day after the statement.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
What happens if you only own the largest company in the S&P 500?
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
If I had invested the money
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
How developed country debt works
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Financial Repression pays back high debt levels people 👇
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COMMODITIES ON 1971 PATH? 🤔
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
Replying to @KingKong9888
So does this. 📈 @WinfieldSmart
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
BREAKING: Democrats are now projected to sweep the 2026 midterms, taking both the Senate & House. 51% chance.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
While earnings continue to boom, I am starting to see signs that the rate of change is peaking. What that means for margins, valuations, and momentum remains to be seen, but my guess is that the rotation out of the AI space and into the rest of the market will continue. That suggests a flatter and more churning market than what we experienced in the spring.
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
Cost of debt to keep rising until 5Y UST yields drop <3/%
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The history of the US 10 year rates
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How Couples Met 1930-2024
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
How big is the AI investment and it's overlap? 😳
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
$PCT - this is very very interesting It appears on the entire move $14-$7 was on an increase in short interest. ~90% of the top holders added, some in size.
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Total Of Tanker Flows Through Strait Of Hormuz By Vessel Type. via BCA
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Win Smart, CFA retweeted
Exercise frequency generally correlates with how often people want sex
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